This document is a summary of all lecture slides of the course Risk Assessment taught at Tilburg University. Some notes were added during the lectures to provide better understanding or give extra examples.
Lecture 1 - Introduction
Definition and Factors in Risk Assessment
● Definition
○ Older version
■ “Probability calculation that a harmful behavior or event will occur, and involves an assessment about
the frequency of the behavior (or event), its likely impact and who it will affect”
○ More recent version
■ “The attempt to predict the likelihood of future offending in order to identify individuals in need of
intervention”
○ Risk assessment is always talking about future, uses past to do so
○ Risk Assessment must specify
■ Behavior (e.g. violent behavior)
■ Potential damage or harm caused by the behavior (e.g. child sexual abuse)
■ Probability that it will occur, and under what circumstances
● Types of Factors
○ Protective factors
■ Decreasing likelihood of criminal behavior
■ Conceptualization
● Prosocial means or strategies to achieve one or more primary human goods (common life
goals)
○ We all have life goals but use different strategies to achieve those
■ Good Lives Model (GLM) of rehabilitation
● Accomplish a ‘good life’ by fulfilling primary goods
● Offending = maladaptive attempt to attain one or more primary human goods (life goals)
■ Interaction with risk factors, serve as buffer
■ Improve predictive accuracy
■ Potentially more engaging and effective interventions
■ Improvement protective factors -> (non) recidivism
■ Measurement
● SAPROF
○ Structured Assessment of Protective Factors for violence risk
○ Different versions
■ Juveniles and young adults
■ SAPROF-Sexual Offending
■ SAPROF-Intellectual Disabilities
■ SAPROF-Intensive care
○ Risk factors
■ Static
■ Dynamic
○ Static Risk Factors
■ Not changeable / treatable, often historical factors
● E.g. age, gender, ethnicity, first offender, type of offense, first conviction
■ Risk remains the same over years, cannot be used for interventions
● So provide important information but cannot be used in handling of offenders
■ Not used in forensic psychology, more in policy making
■ Assessment
● StatRec
○ Static Risk of Recidivism
○ Gender, age, country of birth, offence type, early convictions, sequence of judicial
contacts
, ○ Provides prediction of recidivism (good predictive validity, AUC = .80)
○ No interview need (all info usually present in file)
● Static99-R
○ Status risk assessment tool for sex offenders
○ 10 items only
○ More specific than StatRex
○ Coding Form
■ E.g. Lower risk with increasing age
○ Translating scores into risk categories
■ Area under the Curve AUC
● Derived from Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC)
○ Illustrates diagnostic ability
○ Plotting true positive rates (sensitivity) against false positive rates (specificity)
● Extent to which risk assessment instruments accurately differentiate recidivists from
non-recidivists
● Varies between 0 and 1
○ 0: chance performance
○ 1: perfect performance
○ 0.5: uninformative classifier
○ Dynamic Risk Factors
■ Changeable and therefore trestable
■ Interventions aim at change of dynamic risk factors
● Causal status
■ Also called criminogenic dynamic needs
■ Relationship of dynamic risk factors and risk of offending moderated by static risk factors
■ RNR model as theoretical framework
● Dynamic needs
● Risk principle
○ Offenders at high risk for reoffending will benefit most from more intensive
treatment
● Need principle
○ Only those factors associated with reductions in recidivism should be targeted
during treatment
● Responsitivity principle
○ Interventions should be matched to offender characteristics (e.g. level of
motivation, personal circumstances, learning style)
,■ RNR & dynamic rf
● Central eight criminogenic needs (each can be focus for treatment)
○ Antisocial attitudes / orientation
○ Antisocial peers
○ Antisocial personality
○ Antisocial behavior patterns
○ Absence of prosocial leisure / recreation
activities
○ Dysfunctional family
○ Employment issues
○ Substance abuse problems
● Non-criminogenic needs (general recidivism)
○ Personal distress
○ Major mental disorder
○ Low self-esteem
○ Low physical activity
○ Poor physical living conditions
○ Low conventional ambition
○ Insufficient fear of official punishment
■ LS/CMI
● Level of service / case management inventory
● Also based on RNR
● Interview, can be used for treatment
● 8 needs (section)
■ Types of Dynamic Risk Factors
● Stable Dynamic RF
○ Modifiable but unlikely to change
■ Changing maladaptive self-regulation happens slowly
○ Personal skill deficits and learned behaviors
○ Can be changed through process of effortful treatment
○ E.g. impulse control, poor attachment with others
, ● Acute Dynamic RF
○ Modifiable and likely to change
○ Highly transient conditions that only last hours or days
○ Rapidly changing because of environmental triggers or intrapersonal stresses
related to re-offense
○ E.g. intoxication, negative mood
■ Example: Stable-2000/2007
● Stable dynamic risk factors for sexual reoffending represented by following domains
○ Sexual self-regulation
○ General self-regulation
○ Intimacy deficits
○ Compliance and understanding for need of treatment and control
○ Existence supportive significant others
○ Distorted attitudes or attitudes tolerant to sexual violence
■ Example: ACUTE-2007
● Acute changing risk factors related to sexual recidivism
○ E.g. victim access, hostility, sexual preoccupation, rejection of supervision
● Factors for general recidivism
○ E.g. emotional collapse, collapse of social supports, substance abuse
■ Example: DRAOR
● Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-Entry
● Recidivism risk in community, outpatient
● Inform case planning, risk management
● Stable + acute dynamic rf + protective factors
● Guide for treatment & intervention
● Prediction of
○ Reconvictions
○ Reimprisonment
○ Protective subscale predicted breaches of parole
○ Dynamic risk factors, dual status
■ Predictors of recidivism
■ Potential causes of recidivism from explanatory point of view and as predictions
■ Cause-effect hypothesis
The Cause-Effect Hypothesis
● Assumptions
○ Evidence for association between risk factors and outcome, namely reoffending
○ There must be causal relationship in opposite direction
■ Cause must precede occurrence of effect
○ Cause is different from consequence (distinguish!)
○ Do there exist other inter-correlated factors for an observed association?
■ Can they explain that relation?
○ When there is a cause between Risk Factor A and outcome B, mechanism must be explained
● Dynamic risk factors as causes?
○ They are composite constructs
■ Each factor consists of several sub-factors and / or single factors
■ Example: central eight
● Which underlying factors, different levels, different weights
■ Some risk factors are social factors, mental-state factors, biological factors
○ Lack specificity
■ Risk factor A -> causes -> reoffending
■ Very often: lack of explanatory theories (reason why it causes reoffending)
■ E.g. Ward and Fortune (2016)
● Emotional congruence can be caused by other causes
○ Avoiding adults because of fear and anxiety of adults
○ Consider children as sources of reward and sexual pleasure less in foreground
○ World is dangerous in general, children more innocent
○ Individuals deeply insecure and feel emotionally more safe with children
● -> lack of specificity as multiple explanations for causal relationship / causal alternatives
○ Grain problem
■ Dynamic rf often presented at multiple levels ranging from general domain to more concrete level
■ “How to decide on appropriate level of abstraction when using dynamic rf in explanatory context?
■ Example: three levels
● Items level
● Personality disorder level cluster B
● Domain level
The benefits of buying summaries with Stuvia:
Guaranteed quality through customer reviews
Stuvia customers have reviewed more than 700,000 summaries. This how you know that you are buying the best documents.
Quick and easy check-out
You can quickly pay through credit card or Stuvia-credit for the summaries. There is no membership needed.
Focus on what matters
Your fellow students write the study notes themselves, which is why the documents are always reliable and up-to-date. This ensures you quickly get to the core!
Frequently asked questions
What do I get when I buy this document?
You get a PDF, available immediately after your purchase. The purchased document is accessible anytime, anywhere and indefinitely through your profile.
Satisfaction guarantee: how does it work?
Our satisfaction guarantee ensures that you always find a study document that suits you well. You fill out a form, and our customer service team takes care of the rest.
Who am I buying these notes from?
Stuvia is a marketplace, so you are not buying this document from us, but from seller psychstudenttiu. Stuvia facilitates payment to the seller.
Will I be stuck with a subscription?
No, you only buy these notes for $4.26. You're not tied to anything after your purchase.
