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Population - Natural increase as a component of population change
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Population - Demographic Transition
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Population4.1) Natural increase as a component of population
change
Recent demographic change
Population growth rate is higher in low-income countries (LICs) than in high-income
countries (HICs) only since WWII
Population explosion = the term used during the 1960s when population growth in LICs
and MICs peaked at 2.4% per year down to 1.8% by 1990
Population momentum is the tendency for a population to grow beyond the time that
replacement level fertility has been reached
The components of population change
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Natural change
Accounts for all population increases
The balance between births and deaths
Net migration is the difference between immigration and emigration
Corrugates divide (on drawing) indicates that relative contributions of natural change
and migration can vary over time within a particular country, as well as between
countries at any one point in time
The model is a simple graphical alternative to the population equation:
Population=( birhts−deaths ) ± Migration
OR
P= ( B−D ) ± M
Absolute natural change is the actual change in population as a result of the difference
between the number of births and deaths
Relative natural change is expressed as a rate per thousand e.g. 3/1000
,Factors affecting levels of fertility
Fertility varies around the world
Crude birth rate is the birth rate applying to the total population taking in no account of
gender or age and is heavily influenced by the age structure of a population not a very
accurate measure of data
More accurate measures of fertility
Fertility rate is the number of live births per 1000 woman aged 15-49 in a given year
Total fertility rate is the average number of children that would be born alive to a
woman (or group of woman) during her lifetime if she were to pass through her
childbearing years conforming to the age-specific fertility rates of a given year
Contraception is a major factor influencing fertility
The factors affecting fertility can be grouped into 4 main categories:
1) Demographic
Other population factors, particularly mortality, influence fertility
Where infant mortality is high, children often dies before reaching adult life.
Often parents in such societies have many children to compensate for these
unexpected deaths
2) Social/cultural
In some societies (particularly Africa), tradition demands high rates of
reproduction
In such societies, education is the key to lower fertility as with education comes:
A knowledge of birth control
Greater social awareness
More opportunity for employment
A general wider choice for action
In some countries, religions (Muslim and Roman Catholic religions for example)
oppose artificial birth control
Most countries with population policies have been investing in birth control in an
effort to reduce fertility
Within LICs, usually the poorest neighbourhoods have the highest fertility rates
due to a combination of factors:
High infant mortality
Low educational opportunities for woman
3) Economic
In many LICs, children are seen as an economic asset because of the work that
they do and because of the support they are expected to give to their parents
during old age
In HICs, the cost of the child-dependant years is a great factor in the decision to
begin or to extend a family
Economic growth allows greater spending on health, housing, food and
education important in lowering mortality and reducing fertility
Many companies in HICs do not want to lose valuable female staff so might
provide workplace childcare/offer opportunity for flexible working hours
4) Political
Governments have often made attempts to change the rate of population growth
for economic and strategic reasons
, During the late 1930s, Germany, Italy and Japan all offered inducements and
concessions to those with large families
Malaysia has adopted a similar policy in recent years
Today, most interventionist governments, in terms of fertility, still want to
reduce population growth
Fertility can also be affected by general health factors such as being under/overweight
or using tobacco/alcohol
Being exposed to environmental hazards such as radiation, toxic chemicals or microwave
emissions may reduce a women’s fertility
Factors above do not affect fertility directly influence another set of variables that
determine the level and rate of childbearing
“Intermediate variables” operate in every country but their relative importance can vary
from one country to another
Fecundity
Ability to have a physical relationship
Ability to conceive
Ability to carry a pregnancy to term
Sexual unions (includes marriage and casual long/short term relationships)
Formation and dissociation of unions
Age at first physical relationship
Proportion of women to are married or in a union
Time spent outside a union (e.g. separated, divorces, widowed)
Frequency of physical relationship
Sexual abstinence (religious/cultural customs)
Temporary separations (e.g. military service)
Birth control
Use of contraceptives
Contraceptive sterilisation
Induced abortions
Ø Fertility decline
A 2010 UN study predicted that the population would reach 9.3 billion by 2050 and 10.1
billion by 2100
In recent decades these numbers have been revised and have declined which is a
sharp contrast to earlier warnings of a population explosion
Fertility rates in most parts of the world have fallen faster than was previously expected
which is the main reason for the slowdown in population growth
In the second half of the 1960s, after a quarter century of increasing growth, the rate of
world population growth started slowing down
Since then, some LICs and MICs have seen the quickest falls in fertility which is why
predictions did not materialise
Replacement level fertility is the fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman
Almost 90 countries at or below a 2.1 fertility rate (likely to increase)
This movement to replacement level fertility is one of the most dynamic social changes
in history as it enables more women to work and more children can be educated
The factors affecting mortality
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