1 Overzicht verschillende methodes ..................................................................... 4
1.1 Eén variabele .....................................................................................................................5
1.2 Twee of meer variabelen...............................................................................................6
1.3 Tijdreeksen .........................................................................................................................7
2 Introduction to probability .................................................................................... 8
2.1 Definitions of Probability ...............................................................................................8
2.1.1 Definitie Harold Jeffrey ...........................................................................................8
2.1.2 Waarschijnlijkheidsleer ...........................................................................................8
2.2 De stelling van Bayes .....................................................................................................9
2.3 Sensitiveit en specificteit ........................................................................................... 11
2.3.1 Sensitiviteit .............................................................................................................. 11
2.3.2 Specificiteit ............................................................................................................... 11
2.4 Mutlinomial Naive Bayes Classifier ......................................................................... 12
2.4.1 Interactie-effecten................................................................................................. 13
2.4.2 Zero probabilities ................................................................................................... 14
2.5 Law of large numbers.................................................................................................. 14
3 Probability Distributions (Waarschijnlijkheidsverdelingen) ................ 16
3.1 Statistical Measures for Probability Distributions ............................................. 16
3.2 Discrete Distributions (Discrete verdelingen) .................................................... 16
3.2.1 Bernouillie Distribution (Bernouillie verdeling) .......................................... 16
3.2.2 Binomial Distributions (Binominale verdeling) ........................................... 17
3.2.3 Multinomial Distributions (Mutinominaal Distributies) ............................ 18
3.3 Continuous Distributions ............................................................................................ 18
3.3.1 Uniform Distribution (Rectangular Distribution) ........................................ 18
3.3.2 Normal Distribution (Gaussian Distribution) ............................................... 20
3.3.3 Gaussian Naïve Bayes Classifier ...................................................................... 23
5 Hypothesis testing .................................................................................................. 71
5.1 Normal distribution....................................................................................................... 71
5.2 Populatie ........................................................................................................................... 71
5.3 De steekproef ................................................................................................................. 73
5.3.1 Theorema 1 .............................................................................................................. 74
5.3.2 Theorema 2 .............................................................................................................. 75
5.4 Centrale limietstelling.................................................................................................. 76
5.5 Statistische tests van het gemiddelde van de populatie met een gekende
variantie....................................................................................................................................... 77
5.6 Statistische tests voor het gemiddelde ................................................................ 79
5.6.1 Kritieke waarde bepalen ..................................................................................... 79
5.6.2 P-waarde bepalen .................................................................................................. 80
5.6.3 Type 2 fout of bèta-fout bepalen ..................................................................... 81
2
, 5.6.4 Steekproefgrootte bepalen ................................................................................ 82
5.6.5 De varinatie is niet gekend ................................................................................ 82
5.7 Statistische tests voor de variantie ....................................................................... 83
5.7.1 Kritische waarde bepalen ................................................................................... 83
5.7.2 P-waarde bepalen .................................................................................................. 84
5.7.3 Betrouwbaarheidsinterval van de variantie de steekproef .................... 84
5.7.4 Betrouwbaarheidsinterval voor de variantie van de populatie ............ 85
5.8 Statistische testen voor populatie proportie ...................................................... 86
5.9 Statistische test voor het verschil tussen gemiddeldes ................................. 86
5.10 Hypothesis Testing for Research Purposes ......................................................... 86
5.10.1 One-sample T-test ................................................................................................ 86
5.10.2 Skewness & Kurtosis test ................................................................................... 89
5.10.3 Paired Two Sample t-test ................................................................................... 91
5.10.4 Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test ............................................................................... 93
5.10.5 Unpaired Two Sample t-test.............................................................................. 94
5.10.6 Unpaired two sample Welch test ..................................................................... 96
5.10.7 Mann-Whitney U test (Wilcoxon Rank-Sum test) ..................................... 97
5.10.8 Bayesian Two Sample t-Test ............................................................................. 98
5.10.9 Median test based on Notched Boxplots ....................................................... 98
5.10.10 Chi-Squared test for Count Data ................................................................. 98
5.10.11 One Way Analysis of Variance (1-way ANOVA) ................................... 101
5.10.12 Two Way Analysis of Variance (2-way ANOVA) ................................... 104
5.10.13 Testing correlation ........................................................................................... 106
5.10.14 Causaliteit ........................................................................................................... 112
6 Regression models ................................................................................................ 113
6.1 Simple linear Regression Model (enkelvoudig lineair regressiemodel) .. 113
6.1.1 Kleinste kwadraten criteria .............................................................................. 113
6.1.2 Ordinary least squares for simple linear regression .............................. 113
6.1.3 Statistische interferentie ................................................................................... 115
6.2 Multiple Linear Regression Model (MLRM) ......................................................... 117
6.3 Hypothesis Testing with Linear Regression Models ....................................... 119
6.3.1 On the relationship between Linear Regression models and ANOVA
119
6.3.2 Model Assumpties ................................................................................................ 122
6.3.3 Testing Regression Coefficients ..................................................................... 124
6.3.4 Testing regression model assumptions ....................................................... 126
6.3.5 Misspecification in Regression ........................................................................ 137
, 7.2.3 Decomposition by Structural Time Series Models ................................... 142
7.3 Ad Hoc Forecasting of Time Series ...................................................................... 144
7.3.1 Regression analysis of time series ................................................................ 144
7.3.2 Smoothing models............................................................................................... 149
8 Univariate Box-Jenkins’ analyse ..................................................................... 155
8.1 Theoretische concepten ............................................................................................ 155
8.1.1 Stationariteit .......................................................................................................... 155
8.2 Een tijdreeks stationair maken .............................................................................. 156
8.2.1 Stationariteit in het gemiddelde .................................................................... 156
8.2.2 Stationariteit in de variantie............................................................................ 160
8.2.3 Waarom hebben we stationariteit nodig?................................................... 163
8.3 Het bepalen van ARMA parameters ..................................................................... 163
8.3.1 Het AR(1) model .................................................................................................. 163
8.3.2 Het AR(2) model .................................................................................................. 164
8.3.3 AR-model algemeen (AR(p)proces) .............................................................. 164
8.3.4 Het MA(1) model.................................................................................................. 164
8.3.5 Het volledige ARIMA model ............................................................................. 164
1 OVERZICHT VERSCHILLENDE METHODES
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