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Summary of the SummaryMeadows – Thinking in systems
A System is a set of things that are interconnected in such a way that they produce their own pattern
of behaviour over time. A system can be triggered, driven or constricted by outside forces, but the
response comes from the system itself (Slinky example).
Systems consist of elements, interconnections (flow of info) and a function/purpose. They can be
embedded in other systems (tree in a forest).
a stock is the foundation of any system, the quantity of material/information in the system, which
provides some certainty, continuity and predictability. Stocks change through the action of flows
which fill or drain the stock. There is always a delay in the stock change because flows need time to
flow. If system behaviour persists over time, there is likely a control mechanism, which operates
through feedback loops that are a reaction on the stock (bank account example).
All models are wrong because they are simplifications of the real world.
My system wisdoms:
expose your mental models to the light of day: show what you think and listen to thoughts of
others. Create a multidisciplinary mindset.
get the beat of the system: watch how the system behaves before you disturb it and get a
multidisciplinary look on it to keep from falling into your own beliefs and misconceptions.
Monat – What is systems thinking?
Systems thinking has the power to solve complex problems and
can explain dynamic non-linear behaviours, by recognising the
interconnections between parts of the system and gaining a
broad overview of the whole system and its interconnections.
The iceberg model shows that events and patterns are caused by
systemic structures and mental models which are often hidden.
When using systems thinking, you will be able to not only react
on an event that happened, but you will also see patterns/trends
(anticipate events), underlying structures (design events/system)
and mental models (transform system/events)
Systems Archetypes. In systems thinking, archetypes are problem-
causing structures that are repeated in many situations, environments,
and organizations. There are 10 common archetypes: Accidental Adversaries, Fixes that Fail (policy resistance),
Limits to Growth, Shifting the Burden (addiction), The Tragedy of the Commons, Drift to Low Performance
(eroding goals), Escalation, The Rich get Richer, Rule Beating, and Seeking the Wrong Goal. These 10 archetypes
are very common in business situations, and the literature presents many suggestions for dealing with them.
The key is to first identify them.
Senge – Systems Thinking for a better world
Systems on top of systems and the interrelatedness of elements make it complicated to see what
impact you are making (charging phone = burning fossil fuels), which leads to system ignorance (we
don’t want to pollute but we do).
,Geels – Bridging analytical approaches for low-carbon transitions
Integrated assessment models are quantitative models which describe the drivers of environmental
change (human systems) and the consequences of these changes (to environmental systems).
Positives: ability to combine science, engineering and economic, future oriented, broad scope,
simulate scenarios. Negatives: limitation because of simplified models, looks mostly at global scale.
Transitions involve a wide range of actors with different interests (incumbent vs. new,
public/political debates).
Three approaches to transitions:
- Integrated assessment models: future goal-oriented techno-economic analyses of different
scenarios, transitions are seen as changes in consumption and production patterns,
technologies and resources.
- Socio-technical transition analysis: meso-level assessments of actors in relation to radical
change in socio-technical systems, context analysis (MLP).
- Practice-based action research: action-oriented research on local scale, engaging local
communities in transition and behaviour change.
low carbon transitions could be navigated through a combination of approaches, a rational goal-
oriented analysis of IAMs which makes the general plan, then identification of the
feasibility/legitimacy through socio-technical analysis and lastly assessments of local initiatives and
projects to explore the scenarios.
Steffen – The Anthropocene: Are humans overwhelming the great forces of nature?
Anthropocene: human activities have become so pervasive on earth that they rival the forces of
nature and are pushing earth to a less diverse, warmer, wetter and stormier state since 1800.
Humans have impact on diversity, the stocks and flows of elements on earth (nitrogen, carbon, etc.)
and the energy balance.
The Earth system refers to the interacting physical, chemical and biological cycles and energy flows
that provide the life-support system at the surface of the planet.
- Pre-Anthropocene: humans played significant roles in animal extinction, domestication of
animals/plants for agriculture led to forest destruction and irrigation.
- Stage 1 Anthropocene (1800-1945, 283ppm): industrialisation caused enormous expansion
in use of fossil fuels for energy instead of water/wind/wood energy. Population growth 6-
fold, economy 50-fold and energy-use 40-fold.
- Stage 2 Anthropocene (1945-2015, 311ppm): After ww2 population doubled and economy
increased 15-fold, way more cars. Globalisation and urbanisation growth, start of the 6th
great extinction event, loss of species and earth is warming through greenhouse gas rising.
- Stage 3 Anthropocene (2015-?, 380ppm): environmental concerns, realisation of global
warming, ozone layer depletion, environment in politics, but not dominant. Interdisciplinary
work, internet, independent media and democratic politics aided growing awareness of
human influence on the earth system. Three philosophical approaches:
o Business as usual: current system continues to dominate human affairs, because
global changes are not severe/rapid enough to cause major disruptions
o Mitigation: recognition of the threat must be dealt with proactively to take pressure
of the earth (through technology, environmental management and less pollution and
resource depletion)
o Geo-engineering: purposeful manipulation of Earth System processes by humans
with the intention to counteract environmental change like greenhouse warming.
,Bavel – Climate and society on the long-term: Opportunities & pitfalls in using historical datasets
Wrong use of historical datasets can lead to misleading findings. History can be used to analyse
possible causal relationships between climate change and conflict.
Rockstrom – A safe operating space for humanity
There are planetary boundaries, which define the safe operating space for humanity with respect to
the earth system and are associated with the planet’s biophysical processes. Setting boundaries
could help prevent human activities from causing unacceptable environmental damage.
- Climate change (crossed) measured by CO2 concentration (not higher than 350ppm) and
radiative forcing (no more than 1W/m2), because:
o current climate models may underestimate the severity of long-term climate change
because they don’t include long-term reinforcing feedback loops.
o Stability of the large polar ice sheets is uncertain above 350ppm
o Some of the earth’s subsystems are already moving outside their stable Holocene
state.
- Biodiversity loss (crossed) measured by extinction rate
o Due to human activities, mainly land use
o Biodiversity interacts with other boundaries, e.g. aquatic ecosystems & ocean acidity.
- Nitrogen cycle (crossed) measured by amount N2 removed from the atmosphere by humans
o Agriculture causes major environmental pollution (nitrogen/phosphorus)
o Lakes & marine ecosystems are polluted by these cycles and lead to anoxic events,
where oxygen is getting scarce in the water which makes it hard to survive.
- Others: Phosphorus cycle, Stratospheric ozone depletion, Ocean acidification, Global
freshwater use, Change in land use, Atmospheric aerosol loading, Chemical pollution
The boundaries are set as separate processes, but they are interconnected. If the thresholds are not
crossed, humanity has the freedom to pursue long-term social and economic development.
Steffen – Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
Self-reinforcing feedback could push the earth systems towards a planetary threshold that could
prevent stabilisation of the climate and cause continued warming in a ‘hothouse earth’ pathway,
even if humanity reduces emissions. Tipping cascades occur when one threshold is exceeded and
leads to other thresholds exceeding. If we want to stay in stabilised earth, we need to cut strongly in
CO2 emissions to keep below 2 degrees. We could also create carbon sinks or modify the energy
balance on earth. Resilience-building strategies are very important to ensure buffers, redundancy
and diversity to respond and adapt quickly to changes.
White – Sustainability: I know it when I see it
We need to achieve a shared vision for the meaning of sustainability & sustainable development. This
is important for businesses and organisations to measure and manage the objectives towards
sustainability. Sustainability includes environment, economy and society and balancing their
concerns. Sustainability requires understanding of systems and implies a concern for future
generations. But growth, improvement and increase can be a challenge with limited resources.
, Chertow – The IPAT equation and its variants
IPAT measures the environmental impact. The equation: I=PxAxT,
environmental impact = population (strong increase)*affluence (amount of products
consumed)*technology (impact per consumed product) the equation shows that technological
innovation is important to lower environmental impacts, we cannot ethically reduce population and
want growing affluence for everyone, so technological pollution should decrease. It states that
human impact on the natural environment depends on interaction between population, economic
growth and technology. The IPAT equation is formulated vague which makes it more useful as a
thought model than a calculation model. No technology can eliminate the environmental impact of
consumption, which rises with affluence. IPAT equation is the core of Industrial Ecology, which
examines the environmental impacts of the technological society and how technological innovation
can benefit the environment. T can be reduced by dematerialisation, eco-efficiency or increased
productivity.
Braat – The ecosystem services agenda: Bridging natural science, economics and public/private policy
Ecosystem services: the direct and indirect contributions of ecosystems to human well-being.
state indicators describe which ecosystem component provides the service and how much it
provides, while performance indicators describe how much of the service can be used in a
sustainable way. Classical economists thought of ecosystem services as free goods, weak
sustainability, human capital can substitute natural capital. The value of nature was not an
integrated element in economics, but this must be done.
Nadel – The rebound effect: Large of small?
Rebound effect is when people increase their use of products and facilities as a result of (more
efficiency in) the reduction in operating costs/energy. There are direct rebound effects, when the
purchase of a more efficient product leads to more use of the product (showering twice as long with
an efficient tap), and indirect rebound effects, which is the impact of re-spending the money that
consumers have saved from improved energy efficiency. The estimated size of the rebound effect lies
at around 20%, but it is hard to estimate.
Walker – How the other half lives: Product design, sustainability and the human spirit
The emphasis on efficiency and competition has eliminated the elegance and creativity of our ‘other
side’, which has led to a spiritually impoverished world. We mostly think rational (yang) and not
much intuitive (yin) these days, and we don’t learn yin at school, while this would lead to happiness.
The emphasis on rationality is associated with more consumerism. Inner development like
meditation and minimalism can lead to less consumption and more happiness.
Clark – Design for sustainability: current trends in sustainable product design & development
Design for sustainability (DfS) are the methods to make sustainable improvements to products by
applying elements of lifecycle thinking, it includes social, economic and environmental elements.
Cleaner production is the application of a preventive environmental strategy to reduce
environmental impact. DfS is more than this, it includes 3p, longer life, easy to assemble/
disassemble/ recycle, lower environmental impacts, cost efficiency. The key DfS approaches are:
- Redesign & benchmarking (incremental): redesign is about improving an existing product to
be more sustainable for a specific market (BoP), while benchmarking is learning from the
best practices of competitors by comparing their products and then determine how they can
be more sustainable.
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