Summary of the course strategic future orientation, this summary covers all the concepts discussed, ideal for the open book exam but also to base yourself on when writing the task and creating the future-related assignment.
Futures literacy..................................................................................................................2
Mapping............................................................................................................................4
Shared History..............................................................................................................................4
Futures Triangle............................................................................................................................4
Futures Wheel..............................................................................................................................5
360° zoom-out..............................................................................................................................5
Onderlinge impacts – Reciprocal impacts.....................................................................................5
Anticipating.......................................................................................................................6
Horizonscanning...........................................................................................................................6
Emerging issues - Molitor’s Curve.................................................................................................6
Timing................................................................................................................................7
Linear...........................................................................................................................................7
Cyclical.........................................................................................................................................7
Pendulum.....................................................................................................................................7
Spiral............................................................................................................................................7
Models of social change – Polak Game.........................................................................................7
Deepening..........................................................................................................................8
Causal Layered Analysis................................................................................................................8
Four quadrant mapping................................................................................................................8
Creating Alternatives.......................................................................................................10
Nuts and bolts............................................................................................................................10
Scenario’s...................................................................................................................................10
2x2 Matrix..................................................................................................................................10
Four generic futures...................................................................................................................11
Continued Growth........................................................................................................................................11
Collapse.........................................................................................................................................................11
Discipline.......................................................................................................................................................11
Transformation.............................................................................................................................................11
Transformation................................................................................................................13
Backcasting.................................................................................................................................13
Transcend method......................................................................................................................13
Post-normal times............................................................................................................14
Black elephants..........................................................................................................................14
Black Swans................................................................................................................................14
Black Jellyfish.............................................................................................................................14
The three tomorrows of PNT......................................................................................................14
Design and futures...........................................................................................................15
Speculative culture and design...................................................................................................15
Experiential futures....................................................................................................................16
Rapid prototyping – The thing from the future...........................................................................17
Futures literacy
The capability, the skill of imagining multiple and diverse futures, the practice of looking
through those futures to see the world anew.
Planning – Optimization
Preparation – Contingency
Exploration – Novelty
How we anticipate matter, changes the future. It’s about imaging multiple futures and
becoming aware of how and why we anticipate.
‘It is evident that the human brain-mind system is richly endowed with the capacity not just
for primary consciousness (seeing only what is directly available to the senses) but with
reflexive understanding in time...’
‘...This higher-order consciousness is characterized by the ability to remember and to learn,
to roam consciously throughout a rich, complex, extended present, to understand
responsibilities and consequences, and to speculate on futures yet to come.’
Futures is a multi-disciplinary endeavour for the systematic study of alternative futures to
understand what could be and how we might orient our actions in the present towards our
preferred futures.
Studies possible futures and images of the future that individuals and collectives
hold
Can consider the probability of certain possibilities but not of all possibilities
Helps consider what we prefer
Interprets the past and orients the present
Is necessarily multi-disciplinary
Uses a range of methods and techniques
Examines contexts for and values in futures orientations
Is geared towards action in the present
Underpins democratic participation in designing futures
The characteristics of time
The future will be unique
Individual and collective action can influence future evolutions
Interdependence, holism
Better futures are possible
Futures studies can help us recover our agency
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