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Economic Analysis and Pandemics
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Lecture notes of 31 pages for the course Economic Analysis and Pandemics at UoEX
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Economic Analysis and PandemicsTable of Contents
Week 1 – Introduc on and History .....................................................................................3
Vaccine Priority ..........................................................................................................................3
Who’s Input Should We Priori se When Alloca ng Vaccines? .....................................................................3
Readings.....................................................................................................................................4
The Economics of Viral Outbreaks by Imran Rasul........................................................................................4
Pandemic Risk: How Large are the Expected Losses? By Fan, Jamison & Summers .....................................4
The Brazilian Bombshell? The Long-term Impact of the 1918 In uenza Pandemic the South American Way
by Guimbeau, Menon and Mausacchio ........................................................................................................4
Week 2 – Neoclassical Economics .......................................................................................5
Readings.....................................................................................................................................5
Impact of Covid-19 on Global Poverty on World Bank Blogs ........................................................................5
Economic Analysis of Covid-19 Responses (parts 1 & 2) by Julian Jamison in The Incidental Economist .....7
Advance Market Commitments: Insights from Theory and Experience by Kremer, Levin and Snyder .........7
How Do People Respond To Small Probability Events With Large, Nega ve Consequences by Eichenbaum,
Matos, Lima, Rebelo and Trabandt ...............................................................................................................8
Supply and Demand Shocks in the Covid-19 Pandemic: An Industry and Occupa on Perspec ve by Rio-
Chanona, Mealy, Pichler, Lafond and Farmer................................................................................................8
Externali es and Incen ves ........................................................................................................8
Posi ve Externali es .....................................................................................................................................8
Increase Number of Vaccines Produced and Consumed...............................................................................8
Stocks and Vaccines ......................................................................................................................................8
Solu ons Using Market design to Improve Social Outcomes........................................................................8
Advance Market Commitments – Vaccine Produc on .................................................................9
Tes ng & Produc on.....................................................................................................................................9
Advanced Market Commitments ..................................................................................................................9
Q&A with Tayfun Sonmez ...........................................................................................................9
Background ...................................................................................................................................................9
Q&A Session – 20th January 2021.............................................................................................10
The Race Between Supply and Demand .....................................................................................................10
The Destruc on of Economic Surplus .........................................................................................................10
Cutler & Summers’ Data..............................................................................................................................11
Alloca on of Scarce Resources....................................................................................................................11
Risks ............................................................................................................................................................11
Seminar – 22nd January 2021 ...................................................................................................11
1918 In uenza Pandemic ............................................................................................................................11
Week 3 – Measurement and Health .................................................................................12
Q&A Session – 27th January 2021.............................................................................................12
(In)Commensurability .................................................................................................................................12
Seminar – 28th January 2021 ....................................................................................................12
Models ........................................................................................................................................................12
Readings...................................................................................................................................12
, What is the Meaning of (Sta s cal) Life? By Colmer ..................................................................................12
When to Release the Lockdown: A Wellbeing Framework for Analysing Costs and Bene ts by Layard .....13
This Overlooked Variable is the Key to the Pandemic by Tufekci ................................................................14
Tufekci’s Dispersion Parameter .................................................................................................14
Informa on .................................................................................................................................................14
Layard et al’s Wellbeing Framework..........................................................................................15
Maximising Social Welfare ..........................................................................................................................15
Q&A with Dr Martha Nelson.....................................................................................................15
Strategy and Data Collec on.......................................................................................................................15
Q&A with Dr Nathan Wolfe.......................................................................................................15
Measurement..............................................................................................................................................15
Week 4 – Policy Interven ons...........................................................................................16
Q&A Session – 3rd February 2021 .............................................................................................16
Policy Interven ons.....................................................................................................................................16
Masks – Tes ng the Regula on...................................................................................................................16
Unintended Consequences .........................................................................................................................16
Readings...................................................................................................................................16
Non-Pharmaceu cal Interven ons and Mortality in US Ci es During the Great In uenza Pandemic
1918-1919 by Barro ....................................................................................................................................16
Comparing the Impact on Covid-19 Mortality of Self-Imposed Behaviour Change and of Government
Regula ons Across 13 Countries by Jamison ..............................................................................................17
Covid-19 and Youth Entrepreneurship in Kenya: Evidence on Impact, Resilience, and Mi ga on by
Domenella, Jamison, Sa r and Zia ..............................................................................................................17
Discussion of In uenza NPI paper by Barro ...............................................................................21
Data and Models .........................................................................................................................................21
Domenella Kenya Reading Slides ..............................................................................................22
Cri que .......................................................................................................................................................22
Q&A with Berk Ozler – Presenta on on the E ect of Condi onal Cash Transfers to Tourists
During a Pandemic....................................................................................................................22
Schooling for the Children of the Poor........................................................................................................22
Condi onal Cash Transfers ..........................................................................................................................22
Arguments for the “Condi on” ...................................................................................................................22
Applying this to Covid .................................................................................................................................23
Week 5 – Behavioural Economics .....................................................................................23
Q&A – 10th February 2021........................................................................................................23
Behavioural Economics ...............................................................................................................................23
Seminar – 11th February 2021 ..................................................................................................23
In the News .................................................................................................................................................23
Discussion of Jamison – Self-Imposed Behaviour Change...........................................................................23
Readings...................................................................................................................................24
Fatalism, Beliefs, and Behaviours During the Covid-19 Pandemic by Akesson et al....................................24
Socio-Demographic Factors Associated with Self-Protec ng Behaviour During the Covid-19 Pandemic by
Papageorge et al..........................................................................................................................................24
Covid-19 Preven on in India by Banerjee et al ...........................................................................................27
Q&A with Sco McDonald of Oliver Wyman .............................................................................27
Adap ng to Working From Home ...............................................................................................................27
, Discussion of Akesson – Fatalism Beliefs ...................................................................................27
Risk is Overes mated..................................................................................................................................27
Discussion of Papageorge – US Socio-Demographic...................................................................28
Xx ................................................................................................................................................................28
Week 7 – Developing Economies ......................................................................................28
Q&A – 24th February 2021........................................................................................................28
Sustainable Development Goals .................................................................................................................28
Seminar – 25th February 2021 ..................................................................................................28
Household Response to an Extreme Shock: Evidence on the Immediate Impact of the Covid-19 Lockdown
on Economic Outcomes and Well-being in Rural Uganda by Mahmud and Riley .......................................28
Readings...................................................................................................................................28
Household Response to an Extreme Shock by Mahreen Mahmud and Emma Riley ..................................28
Week 8 – Poli cs ..............................................................................................................28
Q&A – 3rd March 2021 .............................................................................................................28
Norms in a Time of Crisis ............................................................................................................................28
Readings...................................................................................................................................29
Many in China are Strikingly Accep ng of Harsh Virus Controls by Chaguan .............................................29
Back to Normal Means Ignoring the CDC by Ma hew Yglesias ..................................................................29
Seminar – 4th March 2021 ........................................................................................................29
Chaguan Ar cle...........................................................................................................................................29
Yglesias Ar cle.............................................................................................................................................29
Week 9 – Ethics and Inequity............................................................................................29
Readings...................................................................................................................................29
Global Vaccine Alloca on by Emmanuel et al .............................................................................................29
Who Gets the Covid-19 Vaccine First? By Gina Kolata ................................................................................30
Seminar – 11th March 2021 ......................................................................................................30
Discussion of Emmanuel paper...................................................................................................................30
Discussion of Kolata paper ..........................................................................................................................30
Week 10 – Group Presenta ons .......................................................................................30
Week 11 – The Future.......................................................................................................30
Q&A – 24th March 2021 ...........................................................................................................30
What Can We Learn? ..................................................................................................................................30
Readings...................................................................................................................................31
Caring About the Distant Future: Why It Ma ers and What It Means by Tyler Cowen ..............................31
Seminar – 25th March 2021 ......................................................................................................31
Discussion of Cowen ...................................................................................................................................31
Week 1 – Introduc on and History
Vaccine Priority
Who’s Input Should We Priori se When Alloca ng Vaccines?
• Poli cians – democra cally elected or otherwise
, • Epidemiologists and public health experts
• Economists and social scien sts
• Bioethicists and philosophers
• Preferences of the public
• Other
Readings
The Economics of Viral Outbreaks by Imran Rasul
• “Human popula ons are more urbanized and interconnected than ever before. These
long-run trends, along with rising global temperatures, have driven a parallel rise in
viral epidemics, with tens of millions of cases of viral infec on having been recorded
in nearly all countries since 1980 (Smith et al. 2014).”
• “Indeed, es mates suggest the annual global cost of moderately severe to severe
pandemics is 0.7 percent of global income, in line with the es mated economic costs
from climate change (World Bank 2017).”
Pandemic Risk: How Large are the Expected Losses? By Fan, Jamison & Summers
The Brazilian Bombshell? The Long-term Impact of the 1918 In uenza Pandemic the South
American Way by Guimbeau, Menon and Mausacchio
• Show that the pandemic had signi cant short-run demographic, literacy and
produc vity impacts in 1920
• Study dynamics on literacy rates, in-pa ent hospital admissions, and produc vity in
1940, to demonstrate las ng e ects. These results are robust to a variety of
falsi ca on and speci ca on checks
• Results underline that historical determinants of development can have persistent
e ects on outcomes, and that a comprehensive understanding of the legacy of
health shocks provides scope for targeted present-day policy-making in order to
ameliorate some of the nega ve consequences
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