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Samenvatting Macro-economie Schakeljaar Handelswetenschappen
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Volledige samenvatting van alle lessen Macro-economie gegeven door Tim Benijts. Geslaagd in eerste zit.
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Macro-economieInhoudsopgave
1. Rol van de overheid in de economie: doelstellingen en instrumenten van het economisch beleid .............. 4
1.1De rol van de overheid in de economie ........................................................................................................... 4
1.2 Wat is overheidsbeleid ................................................................................................................................... 5
1.3 Doelstellingen van economisch beleid ........................................................................................................... 6
Hoe kan men een beoordeling maken van het economisch beleid? ............................................................. 9
1.4 Instrumenten van economisch beleid .......................................................................................................... 10
Typologie van beleidsinstrumenten volgens Van der Doelen ...................................................................... 10
Beleidsinstrumentenmix ............................................................................................................................... 11
2. Hoe zijn beleidskeuzen te verklaren? ..................................................................................................... 11
Inleiding.............................................................................................................................................................. 11
2.1Model van de beleidscyclus .......................................................................................................................... 11
Agendavorming ............................................................................................................................................. 12
Beleidsvoorbereiding .................................................................................................................................... 13
Beleidsbepaling ............................................................................................................................................. 13
2.2 theorie van de electorale conjunctuurcycli .................................................................................................. 13
2.3 theorie van de ideologische conjunctuurcycli .............................................................................................. 15
2.4 Theorie van de politieke instituties .............................................................................................................. 16
3. Budgettair beleid .................................................................................................................................. 17
3.0 Definitie en typologie ................................................................................................................................... 17
3.1 Overheidsuitgaven ....................................................................................................................................... 18
3.2 Overheidsinkomsten .................................................................................................................................... 19
Laffer curve ................................................................................................................................................... 20
Verband tussen belastingvoet en economische groei (Nellis & Parker) ...................................................... 20
Automatische stabilisatoren ......................................................................................................................... 21
3.3 Begrotingssaldo ........................................................................................................................................... 21
De vicieuze cirkel tussen banken en overheden ........................................................................................... 23
3.4 Overheidsschuld ........................................................................................................................................... 23
Currency trap ................................................................................................................................................ 23
Dynamiek van de overheidsschuld ............................................................................................................... 24
Schuldbeheer ................................................................................................................................................ 25
Wat als een land zijn schulden niet kan terugbetalen? ................................................................................ 25
4. Monetair beleid .................................................................................................................................... 27
4.1 Rol van centrale banken in de economie ..................................................................................................... 27
4.2 Wat is monetair beleid? ............................................................................................................................... 27
4.3 Wat zijn de doelstellingen van monetair beleid? ......................................................................................... 27
Waarom is prijsstabiliteit belangrijk? ........................................................................................................... 28
4.4 Wie is de centrale bank? .............................................................................................................................. 28
1
, 4.5 Hoe streeft een centrale bank haar doelstellingen na? ............................................................................... 28
Creatieve nieuwe instrumenten van de centrale bank ................................................................................ 29
4.6 Typologie van het monetair beleid .............................................................................................................. 30
4.7 Hoe de strekking van het monetair beleid weten? ...................................................................................... 30
Regel van Taylor................................................................................................................................................. 31
Voorbeeld...................................................................................................................................................... 31
Doordenker ................................................................................................................................................... 31
4.8 Transmissiemechanismen ............................................................................................................................ 32
4.9 Relatie economische omgeving en monetair beleid .................................................................................... 32
4.10 Normalisatie van een te expansief beleid .................................................................................................. 33
5. beleidseffecten: IS-LM model ................................................................................................................ 33
5.1 Macro-economisch evenwicht ..................................................................................................................... 33
5.2 Samenstelling van het model ....................................................................................................................... 34
IS .................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Voorbeeld...................................................................................................................................................... 37
LM.................................................................................................................................................................. 38
5.3 Werking van het ISM-LM model .................................................................................................................. 39
Voorbeeld: monetair beleid ECB ................................................................................................................... 39
Voorbeeld: infrastructuur via indirecte belastingen .................................................................................... 40
Voorbeeld: Amerikaanse policy mix ............................................................................................................. 42
Voorbeeld: langdurige economische malaise ............................................................................................... 43
Voorbeeld: dalend consumentenvertrouwen bestrijden met belastingverlaging of infrastructuurwerken?
....................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Expansionary fiscal contraction .................................................................................................................... 44
5.4 Mundell-Fleming model ............................................................................................................................... 45
Scenario 1: expensief budgettair beleid (bij onvolmaakte kapitaalmobiliteit) ............................................ 45
Scenario 2: expansief monetair beleid (bij onvolmaakte kapitaalmobiliteit)............................................... 47
6 beleidseffecten: AA-AV model ................................................................................................................ 48
6.1 macro-economisch evenwicht (korte termijn) ............................................................................................. 48
Okun’s law ..................................................................................................................................................... 49
6.2 samenstelling van het model ....................................................................................................................... 50
AV-curve ........................................................................................................................................................ 50
AA-curve ........................................................................................................................................................ 51
6.3 Werking van het AV-AV model .................................................................................................................... 56
Voorbeeld – recessie VSA ............................................................................................................................. 56
Voorbeeld – Bidenomics ............................................................................................................................... 57
Enkele problemen bij actief overheidsbeleid (examen!) .............................................................................. 58
Voorbeeld – Afname consumentenvertrouwen ........................................................................................... 59
Voorbeeld – Significante daling van de loonkost.......................................................................................... 59
Voorbeeld – Aanbodbeleid op lange termijn................................................................................................ 60
Extra – invloed van rational expectations op aggregatief aanbod en aggregatieve vraag .............................. 60
Inleiding ......................................................................................................................................................... 61
Onverwacht beleid (unanticipated (unexpected) policy) ............................................................................. 61
Verwacht beleid (anticipated (expected) policy) .......................................................................................... 61
7. Inflatie ................................................................................................................................................. 63
7.1 Inleidende begrippen ................................................................................................................................... 63
Inflatiemaatstaven: hoe inflatie meten? ...................................................................................................... 64
2
, Waarom is (hoge) inflatie en deflatie slecht? ............................................................................................... 65
Oorzaken van inflatie .................................................................................................................................... 65
Relatie tussen inflatie, lonen en productiviteit............................................................................................. 66
7.2 Inflatiebeleid ................................................................................................................................................ 67
8: conjunctuur en economische groei ........................................................................................................ 68
8.1 conjunctuur .................................................................................................................................................. 68
8.1.1 begripsomschrijving ............................................................................................................................. 68
8.1.2 typologie van conjunctuurgolven ........................................................................................................ 68
8.1.3 conjunctuurfasen ................................................................................................................................. 69
8.1.4 typologie van conjunctuurindicatoren................................................................................................. 70
8.2 economische groei ....................................................................................................................................... 72
8.2.1 begripsomschrijving ............................................................................................................................. 72
8.2.2 productiefunctie van een economie .................................................................................................... 73
8.2.3 overheidsbeleid om economische groei te stimuleren.............................................................................. 73
9. Wisselkoersbeleid en betalingsbalansbeleid .......................................................................................... 74
3
, 1. Rol van de overheid in de economie: doelstellingen en
instrumenten van het economisch beleid
1.1De rol van de overheid in de economie
België en bij uitbreiding de West-Europese zijn gemengde economieën. Hierbij zijn telkens 2
parttijen. G = government M = marktpartijen. Marktpartijen zijn gezinnen, bedrijven en
consumenten. Wat is de rol van de overheid in de economie? In theorie zijn er ook andere
vormen van economieën mogelijk. Bv enkel een overheid zonder marktpartijen of enkel
marktpartijen waarbij er geen inmenging is van de overheid.
Vb. “quasi” staatseconomieën: Noord-Korea, China, Rusland, Cuba,…
Vb. “bijna” markteconomieën: Verenigde Staten
Er is een tendens dat de rol van overheden in gemengde economieën worden opgedreven.
Hoe kan gemeten worden hoe groot de rol van de overheid is?
1. Overheidsuitgaven in functie van het BBP
2. % van de werkenden die bij de overheid werken
C = private consumptie
I = investeringen. Dingen die bedrijven kopen in het kader van de bedrijfsvoering
G = overheidsbestedingen. Alles wat de overheid koopt.
E–Z = Nettohandel (E=export, Z=import)
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