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Macro: samenvatting per hoofdstuk + curves + begrippen

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Een samenvatting to the point van de cursus per hoofdstuk, aangevuld met een apart deel die alle curves overloopt en de opbouw ervan behandelt. Als extraatje is er nog een begrippenlijst voor de losse theorievragen op het examen. Score met behulp van dit document: 15/20.

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  • June 10, 2022
  • 44
  • 2021/2022
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MACRO ECONOMIE

,Inhoudsopgave

HOOFDSTUK 1 .................................................................................................................................................5
Macro-economische identiteiten ...............................................................................................................5
1.1 Reëel product ..................................................................................................................................5
1.2 Nominaal product ............................................................................................................................5
1.3 Inflatie: .............................................................................................................................................5
1.4 Werkgelegenheid en werkloosheid .................................................................................................6
1.5 Rentevoet ........................................................................................................................................6
1.6 Wisselkoers ......................................................................................................................................6
1.7 Saldo op lopende rekening van de betalingsbalans .........................................................................7
1.8 Begrotingssaldo van de overheid en overheidsschuld.....................................................................7
1.9 Ongelijkheid .....................................................................................................................................7
Macro-economische scholen .....................................................................................................................8
2.1 Keynes ..............................................................................................................................................8
2.2 Klassiek ............................................................................................................................................8
2.3 Oostenrijk ........................................................................................................................................8

HOOFDSTUK 2 .................................................................................................................................................8

HOOFDSTUK 3 .................................................................................................................................................9

HOOFDSTUK 4 .................................................................................................................................................9

HOOFDSTUK 5 ...............................................................................................................................................10
Friedman (klassiek) – c1 < 0,2 ..................................................................................................................10
Keynesiaanse repliek – c1 > 0,5 ................................................................................................................10
Toename van ongelijkheid.......................................................................................................................10
Investeringen ...........................................................................................................................................10
Tobin’s Q-theorie .....................................................................................................................................10

HOOFDSTUK 6 ...............................................................................................................................................11
Proportionele belastingen .......................................................................................................................11
Begrotingssaldo .......................................................................................................................................11
Dynamiek van overheidsschuld ...............................................................................................................11
Ricardiaanse equivalentie .......................................................................................................................12
Gouden regel van publieke financiën ......................................................................................................12
Negatieve effecten van hoge overheidsschuld ........................................................................................12
Overheid ..................................................................................................................................................12
7.1 Netto-financieringsbehoefte NFB ..................................................................................................12
7.2 Lopend begrotingssaldo.................................................................................................................12
7.3 Saldo op de lopende rekening of betalingsbalans .........................................................................12

HOOFDSTUK 7 ...............................................................................................................................................13
Betalingsbalans .......................................................................................................................................13
Identiteiten ..............................................................................................................................................13
Netto-export NX ......................................................................................................................................14
Wisselmarkt.............................................................................................................................................14


1

, 4.1 Vlottende wisselkoersen................................................................................................................14
4.2 Vaste wisselkoers ...........................................................................................................................14
Competitiviteit .........................................................................................................................................14

HOOFDSTUK 8 ...............................................................................................................................................15
Geld .........................................................................................................................................................15
Geldaanbod .............................................................................................................................................15
BR: Bankreserves .....................................................................................................................................15
Geldvraag ................................................................................................................................................16
4.1 Transactiegeldvraag .......................................................................................................................16
4.2 Voorzorgsvraag naar geld ..............................................................................................................17
4.3 Speculatieve geldvraag ..................................................................................................................17
Totale geldvraag .....................................................................................................................................17
Visies op geldmarkt .................................................................................................................................17
6.1 Kwantiteitstheorie van Fisher ........................................................................................................17
Geldmarktevenwicht ...............................................................................................................................18
LM-curve..................................................................................................................................................18

HOOFDSTUK 9 ...............................................................................................................................................19
Evenwicht op G&D-markt en geldmarkt..................................................................................................19
Macro-economische politiek ...................................................................................................................19
2.1 Monetair beleid .............................................................................................................................19
2.2 Budgettair beleid ...........................................................................................................................19
2.3 Crowding out .................................................................................................................................19
AD-curve ..................................................................................................................................................20
Vermogen ................................................................................................................................................20
4.1 Obligaties .......................................................................................................................................20
4.2 Aandelen ........................................................................................................................................20

HOOFDSTUK 10 .............................................................................................................................................21
BP-curve ..................................................................................................................................................21
Mundell-Fleming-model ..........................................................................................................................21
Aanpassingsproces ..................................................................................................................................21
3.1 Vaste wisselkoersen 𝐵 < 0 ............................................................................................................21
3.2 Vlottende wisselkoersen 𝐵 < 0.....................................................................................................21
Effectiviteit van beleid .............................................................................................................................22
4.1 Vaste wisselkoers ...........................................................................................................................22
4.2 Vlottende wisselkoers ....................................................................................................................22
IS-LM-BP-model in Eurozone ...................................................................................................................22
AD-II-curve ...............................................................................................................................................22

HOOFDSTUK 11 .............................................................................................................................................23
Productiefunctie en marginale productiviteit van arbeid ........................................................................23
Vraag naar arbeid ...................................................................................................................................23
Aanbod van arbeid ..................................................................................................................................23
Evenwicht op arbeidsmarkt bij perfecte concurrentie .............................................................................23


2

, Evenwicht op arbeidsmarkt bij imperfecte concurrentie: ‘Competing claims model’ .............................24

HOOFDSTUK 12 .............................................................................................................................................25
• AS(LT) ......................................................................................................................................................25
AS(KT) ......................................................................................................................................................25

HOOFDSTUK 13 .............................................................................................................................................26

HOOFDSTUK 14 .............................................................................................................................................27
Evenwichtswerkgelegenheid en -werkloosheid .......................................................................................27

HOOFDSTUK 15 .............................................................................................................................................29
Phillips-curve ...........................................................................................................................................29
1.1 Oorspronkelijke Phillips-curve .......................................................................................................29
1.2 Expectations augmented ...............................................................................................................29
1.3 Met aanbodschokken ....................................................................................................................29

Curves ...........................................................................................................................................................30
IS-curve ....................................................................................................................................................30
LM-curve..................................................................................................................................................31
BP-curve ..................................................................................................................................................32
Arbeidsmarkt ...........................................................................................................................................33
4.1 LO-curve .........................................................................................................................................33
4.2 PZL-curve .......................................................................................................................................33
AS(KT)-curve ............................................................................................................................................34
AS(LT)-curve.............................................................................................................................................34
AD-curve ..................................................................................................................................................34
Formules ..................................................................................................................................................35
8.1 Okun ..............................................................................................................................................35
8.2 KKP .................................................................................................................................................35
8.3 Begrotingssaldo .............................................................................................................................35
8.4 Netto-financieringsbehoefte .........................................................................................................35
8.5 Saldo op de lopende rekening .......................................................................................................35
8.6 Betalingsbalans ..............................................................................................................................35
8.7 Vermogen ......................................................................................................................................35
8.8 Phillips-curve..................................................................................................................................35
Consumptietheorie van Friedmann .........................................................................................................36
9.1 Identiteiten ....................................................................................................................................36
9.2 Keynesiaanse repliek .....................................................................................................................36
Geldaanbodmechanisme ....................................................................................................................36
10.1 Balans eurosysteem .......................................................................................................................37
Investeringstheorie .............................................................................................................................37
11.1 Tobin’s q-theorie............................................................................................................................37
Betalingsbalans open economie .........................................................................................................37
12.1 Open economie .............................................................................................................................37

EXTRA ...........................................................................................................................................................38
Wet van Okun ..........................................................................................................................................38



3

, Gini-coëfficiënt ........................................................................................................................................38
Koopkrachtpariteit ..................................................................................................................................38
Tobins Q-theorie ......................................................................................................................................38
Sneeuwbaleffect ......................................................................................................................................39
Koekoekseffect ........................................................................................................................................39
Ricardiaanse equivalentie .......................................................................................................................39
Gouden regel van overheidsfinanciën .....................................................................................................39
Betalingsbalans van een land ..................................................................................................................39
Balans van ECB ...................................................................................................................................40
Liquiditeitsval......................................................................................................................................40
Kwantiteitstheorie Fisher ....................................................................................................................40
Crowding-out-effect............................................................................................................................40
Pigou-effect ........................................................................................................................................40
Fisher-Tobin-effect ..............................................................................................................................41
Effectiviteit van beleid bij IS-LM-BP-model .........................................................................................41
Samenstelling loon à loonvariabelen è LO-curve ............................................................................41
AAB .....................................................................................................................................................42
Phillips-curve.......................................................................................................................................42
Hysteresis............................................................................................................................................42
MC – opmerkingen .............................................................................................................................43
21.1 Okun formules ...............................................................................................................................43
21.2 Toegevoegde waarde.....................................................................................................................43
21.3 Finale goederen & diensten ...........................................................................................................43
21.4 Besparingen van de overheid ........................................................................................................43
21.5 Bruto nationaal beschikbaar inkomen ...........................................................................................43
21.6 Keynesiaanse consumptiefunctie ..................................................................................................43




4

, HOOFDSTUK 1
Macro-economische identiteiten
1.1 Reëel product
Reëel product = reëel inkomen = output = Y
• Y: feitelijke output
• Y*: potentiële output

Outputkloof:
𝑌 − 𝑌∗
𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑝𝑢𝑡𝑘𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑓 = × 100
𝑌∗
• Hoogconjunctuur als outputkloof = +
• Laagconjunctuur als outputkloof = -

Reëel product in constante prijzen: in jaar t
/ 𝑞"# × 𝑝"$
"
à Sommering van: (hoeveelheid van goed i) x (prijs van dat goed in jaar 0)
1.2 Nominaal product
/ 𝑞"# × 𝑝"#
"
à Geen goede indicator van de welvaart (houdt geen rekening met prijswijzigingen)

Deflator:
∑" 𝑞"# × 𝑝"# 𝑌%
𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑖𝑛 𝑗𝑎𝑎𝑟 𝑡 = =
∑" 𝑞"# × 𝑝"$ 𝑌&
à ‘tov basisjaar, hoe is gewogen gemiddelde prijspeil van goederen & diensten gewijzigd?’
Samenhang:




1.3 Inflatie:
𝑃# − 𝑃#'(
𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑗𝑎𝑎𝑟 𝑡 = × 100
𝑃#'(
Deflatie: negatieve inflatie
Desinflatie: afnemende inflatie (nog steeds positief)
Hyperinflatie: inflatie > 100%
Kerninflatie: inflatie zonder sectoren energie en voeding (omwille van de schommelingen)




5

,1.4 Werkgelegenheid en werkloosheid




Lst – Ls = U = werklozen (die willen werken)

Werkloosheidsgraad:
𝑈
𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑘𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑠ℎ𝑒𝑖𝑑𝑠𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑎𝑑 =
𝐿$%
Werkgelegenheidsgraad:
𝐿$ 𝐿$ × #𝑢𝑢𝑟 𝑔𝑒𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑘𝑡
𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑘𝑔𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑔𝑒𝑛ℎ𝑒𝑖𝑑𝑠𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑎𝑑 = = × 100
𝑁 𝑁 × 2080
Wet van Okun:
‘Vast verband tussen economische groei en verandering in werkloosheid
∆𝑢% = 𝑐 − 𝑏(𝑦% − 𝑦%∗ )
à Lagere economische groei è grotere werkloosheid
1.5 Rentevoet
• Nominale R: in €
• Reële R: in koopkracht

Samenhang RN op korte en lange termijn:


à Rn5 > Rn1: hogere R op KT in de toekomst è er wordt sterke groei verwacht!

Ex-ante & ex-post reële rente:




à ex-post << ex-ante: voordelig voor ontleners nu (minder verlies aan koopkracht)
1.6 Wisselkoers
Nominaal bilateraal:
Prijs van een munt in een andere munt
Reëel bilateraal:
Relatieve prijs van goed i tov goed i in een andere munt


6

, à Variabele voor concurrentiekracht
Nominaal effectief:
Index die gewogen gemiddelde evolutie van nominale waarde van een munt geeft
Reëel effectief:
Relatieve prijs van eigen producten tov alle handelspartners
𝐸𝑃
𝑃)
à Bij stijging: eigen land wordt relatief duurder en minder competitief
1.7 Saldo op lopende rekening van de betalingsbalans
Elementen:
• Invoer/import Z: -
• Uitvoerexport X: +
• Factorinkomens & transfers

NETTO-BESTEDER NETTO-SPAARDER
= tekort op lopende rekening = overschot op lopende rekening
Uitgaven > beschikbaar nat. inkomen Uitgaven < beschikbaar nat. Inkomen
KAPITAALINVOER KAPITAALUITVOER
è moet buitenlands geld gebruiken/lenen è kan geld uitlenen

Leeft boven zijn stand Leeft onder zijn stand
Bv. VS Bv. Duitsland

Evenwichtsmechanisme in EU-zone: theorie
1. Land met lage groei à lage inflatie
*+
2. + ↘ è concurrentiekracht stijgt
!
3. 𝑁𝑋 ↗ è netto-export van G&D stijgt
4. Groei stijgt
5. Evenwicht
REALITEIT: lage groei è hogere Rr è minder investeringen en C è groei daalt nog meer

1.8 Begrotingssaldo van de overheid en overheidsschuld
Begrotingssaldo = ontvangsten (T) – uitgaven (G)

Overheidsschuld = uitgaande verplichtingen tegenover banken, gezinnen etc.
à Gevolg van tekort op begrotingssaldo è lenen
è Netto-financieringsbehoefte (NFB) > 0
Land met groei heeft een positief begrotingssaldo
Bij lage rente: positief voor landen met overheidsschuld
Negatieve rente è schuld bouwt vanzelf af
R < inflatie è positief
1.9 Ongelijkheid
Gini-coëfficiënt: indicator van ongelijkheid
à Hoe hoger, hoe groter de ongelijkheid (schaal 0-100)



7

, Macro-economische scholen
2.1 Keynes
• Pessimistisch tav stabiliteit vrije markt è marktfalen
• Optimistisch tav overheidstussenkomst
• Afkeer van inflatie, nog meer van werkloosheid
2.2 Klassiek
• Pessimistisch tav overheidstussenkomst è overheidsfalen
• Optimistisch tav stabiliteit vrije markt
• Inflatie is het belangrijkste probleem
2.3 Oostenrijk
• Pessimistisch tav overheidstussenkomst
• Agnostisch tav vrije markt è menselijk gedrag is onvoorspelbaar
• Instabiliteit is niet per se slecht, crisissen uitzweten

HOOFDSTUK 2
Fundamentele macro-economische gelijkheid




Brutoproduct: 4 Berekeningen
1. Waarde van de geproduceerde finale goederen
a. Consumptiegoederen
b. Nieuwe voorraden
c. Vaste kapitaalgoederen
2. Waarde van de bestedingen
a. Uitgaven van consumenten (C)
b. Opbouw nieuwe voorraden (I)
c. Uitbreidings- en vervangingsinvesteringen (I)
3. Som van de toegevoegde waarden
4. Som van de factorvergoedingen

Bruto nationaal beschikbaar inkomen:




Sleutelvergelijking open economie met overheid:




8

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