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Changes in world politics02-02-2022 meeting 1: Has the West lost it? Rise of the BRICs
2.1 Is world history/political science Europe/American-centred?
Public and Elite opinion reflects uncertainty about global change:
- Different perspectives about the construction seems to convey a real problem (zero-sum). So
the construction is quite important
- There is sometimes a mayor clash between America and China, but also China and India about
the northern of the Himalayas. In the past many people agreed the US was the most powerful
nation. That is now suffering and getting weaker
- To treat each other they use violence, planes flying over, military actions
- With the zero-sum in your mind, people are afraid that they will lose everything. This leads to
tensions
- Military, production, financially and knowledge are the most used structural powers
- The most important country in the world is the one who is able to set the rules in international
relations. All kind of countries are challenging the US to compete the US as the next leading
country for structural power
Are clashes unavoidable?
- There are different perspectives, par example the perspective of China is that the US will
interfere in south Asia, while the perspective of the West is that China will interfere the south
of Asia. Another perspective, China will offer help in corona and the US says it will be magically
going away. The perspective of the US is that China lied about the corona virus
- There is a massive bias visible
World history I: perspective from Europe
- 1494 Spain and Portugal divide the world
- Will Europe become one Habsburg empire?
- 1517-1648: religious wars in Europe
- 1648: Westfalia peace: state sovereignty
o Development modern diplomacy
o Centralization of power/authority
- States or nations? Nationalism complicates international relations
o In a nation-state there is legitimate power from the people you have power over. Also
there need an effective government who is able to tax.
o Sovereignty has two sides: other states accept you as a state and they don’t interfere. Also,
a recognition in the state of law and order, which government is the legitim officer from
that state in international politics
o Nationalism goes about who is the owner of the sovereign state? Is it the people, the
monarch?
World history II: perspective from the Western Hemisphere
- Before 1500 empires, nomads, and isolate communities
- 1492: Spain and Portugal rapidly dominate the hemisphere
- From 17th century: growth of colonization North America east coast and Caribbean
competition between Spain, France, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden and Russia. Leads to
slavery
- Indigenous inhabitants decimated
, - 1776 (USA; Haiti 1791/1804; Latin-America from 1810) colonies seek independence
sometimes at the expense of indigenous population
World history III: perspective from Africa
- Before 700: African kingdoms, Egyptian empire, and isolated communities with interlude
Roman-Greco domination north
- 700-1592: expansion kalifate/Islam into Northern Africa, Sahara, and Indian Ocean coast;
Chinese exploration halted
- From 17th century: trade imperialism from the coasts, including slave trade increased
presence western powers (Spain, Portugal, United Kingdom, Netherlands)
- End of 19th century: scramble for Africa
- 20th century: decolonisation; colonies seek independence
World Politics: perspective from (Austral)asia
- Tradition of empires in West-Asia (Persia; Ottoman Empire), South Asia (India) East Asia (China,
Vietnam, Korea, Japan); Asian steppe (Mongolia) – expansion towards Europe and Africa
- Trade imperialism moves Europe into Asia, but little formal colonisation until 19 th century –
sometimes at the expense of indigenous population (Aboriginals; Maori; Papua)
- Russian-Japanese war 1904-1905 as turning point in the region and potentially for the entire
global south. This war had big consequences; is sent a message to the colonies that Western
powers are not superior. It’s not true that the West will always win. This war lead to resistance
against the colonial empires.
- Japanese imperialism and expansion lead to the ‘great Asian war’
- Colonies seek independence
Important observations
- International politics and international political change existed long before the rise of the
sovereign (nation)state
- The rise and perseverance of the sovereign (nation) is related to growing European expansion
resulting in (a) diffusion of the (European) idea of a state (b) inequalities (also in the formal
status) between different areas/countries/nations
- Many different perspectives on history exist. It can be expected that different perspectives on
history still have consequences today. It is important to take a long-time perspective. Like in
Holland the slavery century is dismissed. In the 1500 there was a period that the Rest was more
powerful than the West, it’s important to take this into account
- Puzzle: why does every political unit embrace the (European) notion of the sovereign state?
(And international law?)
- Careful: International Relations Theories are only to different degrees open to different
perspectives on world history: what is perspective Dreaming with BRICs?
- Fear has always been part of change! “The enigma of Japanese Power”, “Four Asian Tigers”,
Putin, other strong leaders, fights between the fights between China and India? This leads to a
lot of fear
What are Mahbubani’s core claims?
- India and China have been dominant before in world history (before 1500)
- The West has presented 3 gifts:
o End of feudalism, this is beneficial to the world because it helps to produce more economic
growth
o Psychology: you can shape your own future
o Rational government: it’s about providing’s for the people; is linked to producing
accountability and it’s for the interests of the people. Democracy is the essential require
for prosperity
, - The West is suffering from hubris:
o Triumphalism after and Cold War
o Elites think they know best (like democracy is a necessary condition for economic growth)
o It ignores the size/weight of China, India and Indonesia
o It sees democracy as necessary condition for growth
- The Rest will no longer accept that
o Rather not to see the world as a zero-sum game, but everybody can win
- Advice: do not outcompete the Rest (i.e. China) but embrace the rest – it need not to be a zero-
sum game
o In international relations there is always uncertainty, that’s why a zero-sum game probably
will not happen fully
Goldman and Sachs paper: Understanding the rise of the BRICs
- Even in 2050 in BRICs country people will be poor. There is a link between China’s entering
WTO and the paper of Goldman and Saches. The financial institution giving advice about the
coming 50 years. It’s all related to intensification of globalization. Many more countries will
enter the ‘game’ of having an open liberal free trade.
- BRIC countries will have overtaken the G6 in the economic growth
- What are the major conditions of growth that these BRIC countries will grow?
o Openness, education, stability and political institutions
His this resulted in a power challenge?
- Formal annual summits since 2009
- New Development Bank (2015): focus on infrastructure projects (also, UAE and Uruguay)
- BRICs Contingent Reserve Arrangement (2015): protecting national currencies
- BRICs payment system (2015) for transferring money
Are they creating a South South counterweight against Bretton Woods Institutions?
Dominant questions of the course
- To what extent do we observe changes (power shifts) in world politics?
- To what extent are the BRICs at the heart of these developments
- To what extent are the BRICs an entity of their own (or a vehicle for individual BRICs members)?
For Alexander George the purpose of the academics producing relevant knowledge was about
identifying the three major trade offs in foreign policy making.
04-02-2022 hoorcollege 2 (Guest speaker)
Do China and India need democracy for their development
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