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This is an IB Theory of Knowledge Essay

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  • June 21, 2022
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  • 2020/2021
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Question: 6. “We are rarely completely certain, but we are frequently certain enough.”

Discuss this statement with reference to two areas of knowledge.



The claim “we are rarely completely certain, but we are frequently certain enough” leads us to

question if we ever achieve certainty and if not, how much certainty is required for knowledge to

be accepted. To successfully analyze this knowledge claim, we must define some key terms:

‘Certainty’ is what distinguishes knowledge from a mere belief and can be broken down into

logical and psychological certainty. Logical certainty refers to claims that have been proven true

regardless of the circumstances, while psychological certainty refers to claims that can be true

depending on one’s personal conviction. This essay will argue what is ‘certain enough’ depends

on the general requirements of the Area of Knowledge, including evidence, explanation,

justification, and consensus. The AOKs that will be explored are the Natural Sciences and

Mathematics because both rely on a systematic process, in other words, have standards that are

agreed upon, to prove knowledge claims and attempt certainty. Since the Natural Sciences are

psychologically certain and use inductive reasoning, the knowledge it produces is probable and

the more evidence it presents the more reliable it is. Since Math is for the majority logically

certain and uses deductive reasoning, the knowledge it produces must be true, certain, and

certain enough.



Since the Natural Sciences cannot be completely certain due to the problem of induction (which

argues that imagination is taken responsible for underpinning the inductive inference, rather than

reason), claims can be accepted when they reach a level of psychological certainty, which is

defined by the reliability of the claim. For a claim to be reliable, it has to be backed up by



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, significant evidence, explanation, and peer-reviewed. If a scientific experiment has been

replicated and agreed on, then the conclusions derived from it are reliable and thus, certain

enough. For instance, Ptolemy’s Geocentric model placed the Earth at the center of the solar

system and the other celestial bodies revolving around it from the simple observation that any

object in the sky always rises from the east and sets from west at the exact same points on the

horizon. Geocentrism was backed up by the Catholic Church as they believed God put the Earth

and its human inhabitants in the center since it was his favorite planet. As Ptolemy’s knowledge

claim was supported by religion and appeared to sufficiently explain the movement of the sun

across the sky, it proved to be reliable. Even though it might not be fully certain, it was ‘certain

enough’ as the Geocentric model had evidence, explanation and was verified by authority.



Falsification occurs when experimental evidence shows that a scientific knowledge claim is

incorrect. In other words, the claim is no longer reliable given the new discovery. Although

knowledge claims follow a proper methodology, the natural sciences do not allow us to be

‘certain enough’ because the physical world keeps changing and new evidence arises, hence

knowledge claims are falsified. Following the previous example, the Heliocentric model falsified

the Geocentric model, which was accepted for thousands of years as truthful knowledge. Based

on ongoing observations of the planets and previous theories from classical antiquity, Nicholas

Copernicus (1473-1543) proposed a simpler and more elegant approach to the universe, where

the sun was located at the center of the solar system and the other planets and stars revolved

around it. In doing so, he solved the mathematical and observational problems and

inconsistencies proceeding from Ptolemy’s theory. Copernicus discovered that Venus went

through a full set of phases, which could only happen if the planet went around the Sun. “The



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