Question: 6. “We are rarely completely certain, but we are frequently certain enough.”
Discuss this statement with reference to two areas of knowledge.
The claim “we are rarely completely certain, but we are frequently certain enough” leads us to
question if we ever achieve certainty and if not, how much certainty is required for knowledge to
be accepted. To successfully analyze this knowledge claim, we must define some key terms:
‘Certainty’ is what distinguishes knowledge from a mere belief and can be broken down into
logical and psychological certainty. Logical certainty refers to claims that have been proven true
regardless of the circumstances, while psychological certainty refers to claims that can be true
depending on one’s personal conviction. This essay will argue what is ‘certain enough’ depends
on the general requirements of the Area of Knowledge, including evidence, explanation,
justification, and consensus. The AOKs that will be explored are the Natural Sciences and
Mathematics because both rely on a systematic process, in other words, have standards that are
agreed upon, to prove knowledge claims and attempt certainty. Since the Natural Sciences are
psychologically certain and use inductive reasoning, the knowledge it produces is probable and
the more evidence it presents the more reliable it is. Since Math is for the majority logically
certain and uses deductive reasoning, the knowledge it produces must be true, certain, and
certain enough.
Since the Natural Sciences cannot be completely certain due to the problem of induction (which
argues that imagination is taken responsible for underpinning the inductive inference, rather than
reason), claims can be accepted when they reach a level of psychological certainty, which is
defined by the reliability of the claim. For a claim to be reliable, it has to be backed up by
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, significant evidence, explanation, and peer-reviewed. If a scientific experiment has been
replicated and agreed on, then the conclusions derived from it are reliable and thus, certain
enough. For instance, Ptolemy’s Geocentric model placed the Earth at the center of the solar
system and the other celestial bodies revolving around it from the simple observation that any
object in the sky always rises from the east and sets from west at the exact same points on the
horizon. Geocentrism was backed up by the Catholic Church as they believed God put the Earth
and its human inhabitants in the center since it was his favorite planet. As Ptolemy’s knowledge
claim was supported by religion and appeared to sufficiently explain the movement of the sun
across the sky, it proved to be reliable. Even though it might not be fully certain, it was ‘certain
enough’ as the Geocentric model had evidence, explanation and was verified by authority.
Falsification occurs when experimental evidence shows that a scientific knowledge claim is
incorrect. In other words, the claim is no longer reliable given the new discovery. Although
knowledge claims follow a proper methodology, the natural sciences do not allow us to be
‘certain enough’ because the physical world keeps changing and new evidence arises, hence
knowledge claims are falsified. Following the previous example, the Heliocentric model falsified
the Geocentric model, which was accepted for thousands of years as truthful knowledge. Based
on ongoing observations of the planets and previous theories from classical antiquity, Nicholas
Copernicus (1473-1543) proposed a simpler and more elegant approach to the universe, where
the sun was located at the center of the solar system and the other planets and stars revolved
around it. In doing so, he solved the mathematical and observational problems and
inconsistencies proceeding from Ptolemy’s theory. Copernicus discovered that Venus went
through a full set of phases, which could only happen if the planet went around the Sun. “The
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