Samenvatting/Summary Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis
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Course
Strategy Implementation
Institution
Tilburg University (UVT)
Summary of the article: "Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis".
Part of the subject: Strategy Implementation.
Article: 2
Week: 2
Part of the master: Strategic Management
Tilburg University 2016.
Art.2: Conceptual Models and the Cuban
Missile Crisis
Graham T. Allison
The American Political Science Review
September 1969
Review 63: 689-718.
Contention: Traditional approach of explicating governmental decision-making is wrong;
Proposal: Alternative ways (conceptual models) of examining decisions are proposed.
Purpose studying case study: To examine some of the fundamental assumptions and
categories used by “analysts in thinking about problems of governmental behaviour,
especially in foreign and military affairs”.
Case study: About the USA’s decision to set up a naval blockade in response to receiving
intelligence the the Soviets were secretly installing nuclear missiles in Cuba.
Conclusion case study:
The involvement of all three models can appear in certain foreign policies. The degree to
which each model becomes involved will differ, however. While a rationalist policy may
seem simplistic by itself in explaining foreign policy decisions, its fundamental nature
proves to be effective in examining a government’s involvement in foreign affairs. The other
two models can provide additional reasoning about other factors that may influence
international events.
It is foolish to believe that the actions of nations reflect a cool, calculated response to a
strategic problem. Institutions churn out poorly timed and spurious guidance, while key
players plot with and against each other and ignore the larger objective. Then later, the group
that happens to be on the winning side gets an entry in the history books that explain their
victory in terms of rational choice instead of ass-backwards happenstance.
Take home message: It is important to consider which ‘conceptual lens’ is used when
examining foreign policy. We must look through different conceptual lenses when examining
government decision making and when forming foreign policy.
Allison’s Conceptual Models:
The models differ in their notions about the basic analyses and organising factors involved in
foreign policy decisions. According to Allison, decisions result not from the approached
outlined in solely one model, but from a combination of those presented in all three models.
The second and third model underscore the fact that individuals and organisations play
major roles in foreign policy processes.
Although the models differ in some fundamental ways, they can still be conceptually
viewed together when examining certain foreign policy decisions.
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