Samenvatting: modellen
voor de veiligheid
Remco van der schoot
, Remco van der schoot
SAMENVATTING: MODELLEN VOOR DE VEILIGHEID
Inhoud
Samenvatting: modellen voor de veiligheid ..................................................... Fout! Bladwijzer niet gedefinieerd.
Hoofdstuk 1 (Risico) ................................................................................................................................................ 3
Risico als triplet ................................................................................................................................................... 3
Techniek, organisatie en gedrag ......................................................................................................................... 4
Het risicostappenplan ......................................................................................................................................... 5
Wortel van redelijkheid ...................................................................................................................................... 6
De risicodriehoek ................................................................................................................................................ 7
Risicobeleving ..................................................................................................................................................... 8
De risicopreventiematrix .................................................................................................................................... 9
Hoofdstuk 2 (Risicobeheersing) ............................................................................................................................ 10
Preventie in klassen .......................................................................................................................................... 10
Bronbestrijding ................................................................................................................................................. 11
Bescherming in lagen ........................................................................................................................................ 12
Veiligheidsketen ............................................................................................................................................... 13
De deming-cirkel ............................................................................................................................................... 14
De risicomanagement-cyclus ............................................................................................................................ 15
Het SMART-principe ......................................................................................................................................... 16
Hoofdstuk 3 (Ongevallen) ..................................................................................................................................... 17
De ongevallen piramide .................................................................................................................................... 17
De poisson-formule? (hoeft niet voor tentamen A) ......................................................................................... 18
Heinrichs dominostenen ................................................................................................................................... 19
De Zwitserse kaas ............................................................................................................................................. 20
Het visgraatmodel............................................................................................................................................. 21
Tripod................................................................................................................................................................ 22
Vlinderdas ......................................................................................................................................................... 23
Hoofdstuk 4 (Gedrag) ............................................................................................................................................ 24
Maslows piramide ............................................................................................................................................ 24
Beredeneerd gedrag (ASE) ................................................................................................................................ 25
Informatie verwerken ....................................................................................................................................... 26
Gekleurde drijfveren ......................................................................................................................................... 27
Adoptie van verandering .................................................................................................................................. 28
Veiligheidscultuur ............................................................................................................................................. 29
De gedrag-cultuurmatrix .................................................................................................................................. 30
Hoofdstuk 7 (Veiligheid) ........................................................................................................................................ 31
Blootstelling ...................................................................................................................................................... 31
Multi criteria analyse ........................................................................................................................................ 32
, Remco van der schoot
SAMENVATTING: MODELLEN VOOR DE VEILIGHEID
Kosten en baten ................................................................................................................................................ 33
SWOT-analyse ................................................................................................................................................... 34
Krachtenveld-analyse ....................................................................................................................................... 35
De draagvlakcurve ............................................................................................................................................ 36
Badkuipkromme ............................................................................................................................................... 37
Hoofdstuk 8 (modellen en instrumenten) ............................................................................................................ 38
, Remco van der schoot
SAMENVATTING: MODELLEN VOOR DE VEILIGHEID
Hoofdstuk 1 (Risico)
Risico als triplet
Om risico’s te doorgronden moeten er 3 vragen gesteld worden:
1. Wat kan er mis gaan (scenario).
2. Hoe ernstig is het gevolg (effect).
3. Wat is de kans dat het gebeurt (kans).
Kans x effect als berekening voor risico laat veel in het midden. Daarom is het risico als triplet een betere
beschrijving: Risico = scenario x Kans x Effect. (triplet).
Deze opvatting over risico is bruikbaar voor zowel korte termijneffecten (directe effecten) en lange
termijneffecten (vertraagde effecten).
Scenario is ook wel de tijd waarover het risico voortduurt?
Scenario Kans Effect Risico
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