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Summary of Quantitative Conservation Ecology
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Summary of Quantitative Conservation Ecology. First year summary of master biology - CRE
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Summary of Lectures – QuantitativeConservation Ecology
Ilona de Weert
Course scheme ........................................................................................................................................ 2
Lecture 1 - Reintroduction ...................................................................................................................... 2
Lecture 2 – How and where to protect natural areas – Evidence based approaches ............................ 5
Lecture 3 – Population Viability Analysis ................................................................................................ 8
Lecture 4 – Minimal Viable Populations................................................................................................ 15
Lecture 5 - Metapopulations and Conservation Science....................................................................... 18
Lecture 6 - Habitat quality and Ecological stoichiometry...................................................................... 23
Lecture 7 – Problem analysis, Hypothesis generation, Experimental design........................................ 25
Lecture 8 – Estimating Population Size and Mark-Recapture Analyses ................................................ 29
Lecture 9 – Statistics.............................................................................................................................. 36
Lecture 10 – Time-series Data, Trend Analysis and Indicators using Observational Data .................... 44
Lecture 11 – Spatial Statistics ................................................................................................................ 47
,Course scheme
Threats and Conservation
- Reintroduction
- Species distribution modelling
- Population trends and demography: population viability analysis
- Minimal viable populations
- Meta population dynamics
- Habitat quality, climate change, pollution, ecological stoichiometry (food quality)
Research options and techniques
- Problem analysis, hypotheses generation, experimental design (e.g. space for time, replication,
and pseudo-replication, full factorial, BACI)
- Advanced statistics
- Estimating population size, mark-recapture analysis
- Trend analysis
- Spatial statistics
Lecture 1 - Reintroduction
3 types of biodiversity: Genetic, Species, Landscape
Aichi targets were set for the declared decade on biodiversity. The 20 Aichi targets are grouped in:
• Strategic Goal A: Address the underlying causes of biodiversity loss by mainstreaming
biodiversity across government and society (Communication and Awareness):1-4
• Strategic Goal B: Reduce the direct pressures on biodiversity and promote sustainable use
(Legal actions and Sociology): 5-10
• Strategic Goal C: To improve the status of biodiversity by safeguarding ecosystems, species
and genetic diversity (Legal actions and Natural Sciences): 11-13
• Strategic Goal D: Enhance the benefits to all from biodiversity and ecosystem services (Natural
Sciences, Economy and Governance): 14-16
• Strategic Goal E: Enhance implementation through participatory planning, knowledge
management and capacity building (Governance and Education): 17-20
Target 11 Protected areas
By 2020, at least 17 percent of terrestrial and inland water, and 10 percent of coastal and marine areas,
especially areas of particular importance for biodiversity and ecosystem services, are conserved
through effectively and equitably managed, ecologically representative and well-connected systems
of protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures and integrated into the
wider landscapes and seascapes.
Research questions:
• Which areas qualify for protection of a country’s biodiversity?
• What must be the size of a protected area? (species distribution modelling)
• Are other activities allowed in a protected area? (habitat quality and ecological
stoichiometry (ratio of nutrients that a species need))
• Are areas interconnected where necessary? (Metapopulation dynamics, spatial statistics)
• Do we have the appropriate monitoring systems? (estimating population size and mark-
recapture analysis)
2
, • Use of indicators as we cannot monitor all life?
• Do we have enough knowledge to install proper ecosystem management? (habitat quality
and ecological stoichiometry)
Target 12 Reducing risk of extinction
By 2020 the extinction of known threatened species has been prevented and their conservation status,
particularly of those most in decline, has been improved and sustained.
Research questions:
• What is the normal fluctuation pattern in a (group of) populations and when are these
fluctuations exceeding this pattern and put the species to an extinction risk? (Population
Viability Analysis, Trend Analysis, Spatial statistics)
• How to deal with extinction debts? (Minimal Viable Populations)
• Can we effectively eliminate the factors threatening these species (poaching, trafficking,
pollution, extra risk due to migration, etc.)?
• How to deal with habitat loss or deterioration? (Habitat quality and Ecological stoichiometry)
• What are the success factors and possibilities of reintroduction? (Reintroductions)
• What are the risks and gains of reinforcing population sizes from other parts of the species
geographic range? (Reintroductions, Minimal Viable Populations)
Target 13 Safeguarding genetic diversity
By 2020, the genetic diversity of cultivated plants and farmed and domesticated animals and of wild
relatives, including other socio-economically as well as culturally valuable species, is maintained, and
strategies have been developed and implemented for minimizing genetic erosion and safeguarding
their genetic diversity.
Research questions:
• Can species be properly and adequately conserved ex situ (in captivity)?
• What are the risk of genetic degradations? (reintroductions)
• What is an extinction vortex? (reintroductions)
Target 15 Ecosystem restoration and resilience
By 2020, ecosystem resilience and the contribution of biodiversity to carbon stocks has been
enhanced, through conservation and restoration, including restoration of at least 15 per cent of
degraded ecosystems, thereby contributing to climate change mitigation and adaptation and to
combating desertification.
Research questions:
• What is resilience?
• Importance of disturbance and frequency of disturbance?
o Frequency causes the stress levels
• How to handle tipping points? (habitat quality and stoichiometry)
o When things stops like a sea current, a lot of dryness or a lot of rainfall will occur
• What are the do’s and don’ts of restoration?
• Is restoration to the original situation always possible?
• How to select and deal with reference sites? (experimental design, statistics)
• Restoration of natural processes and nutrients ratios? (habitat quality and stoichiometry)
• Preconditions of reintroduction programs? (Reintroductions)
• How to monitor ecosystem restoration?
3
, • What are the goals and benefits of rewilding?
Topic 1: Reintroduction and restocking
• Reintroductions are attempts to return species to parts of their historical ranges where they
were extirpated and might involve release of either captive-bred or wild-caught individuals.
(Armstrong & Seddon, 2008, Trends in Ecology and Evolution)
• Restocking for conservation generally involves the intentional release of individuals into a
declining or threatened population, either as a single event or a series of releases over some
period of time, up to several years. (Champagnol et al., 2012, Journal of Nature Conservation)
Reintroductions: Guidelines
The IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) has developed a list of guidelines for
reintroductions:
1. A reintroduction has intended conservation benefit, but it also carries risks to ecological, social
and economic interests
2. There should generally be strong evidence that the threat(s) that caused any previous
extinction have been correctly identified and removed or sufficiently reduced
3. Assessment of any reintroduction attempt should include identification of potential benefits
and potential negative impacts, covering ecological, social and economic aspects.
4. Species should not be introduced outside their native range
5. Justifying a reintroduction requires an especially high level of confidence over the organisms’
performance after release
6. Where a high degree of uncertainty remains or it is not possible to assess reliably that a
conservation introduction presents low risks, it should not proceed.
Relevant questions in reintroduction and restocking:
• Is it necessary (mobility, local adaptation, genetic provenance)?
• What is the effect on donor populations?
• What is the likelihood of success of establishment?
• What is the likelihood of success of persistence?
• What is the effect on the receiving ecosystem?
4
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