Mrs. rickebusch mr. sutano mrs verboom mr vanvliet
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climate change
impacts
flex step method
introduction
climate change impacts
scenario analysis
mitigation and adaptation
commu
introduction to climate change
regression model in climate impact research
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Wageningen University (WUR)
Environmental Sciences
Introduction to Environmental Systems Analysis (ESA20506)
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summary lectures IESA Flex-step method
01 INTRODUCTION
course learning goals:
▪ I can explain basic characteristics of environmental
systems analysis (flexible step approach)
▪ I can explain the general procedure for
environmental systems analysis (flexible step
approach);
▪ I can explain basic causes, processes and impacts
of climate change;
▪ I can assess climate change impacts and
adaptation, by applying the three tools conceptual
model, regression model and scenario analysis when
given the required data.
▪ I can discuss the value of the results for adaptation
and mitigation policy making.
Grading: BYOD exam: 65%
Project video: 35% (group work)
→ all components 5.5 or higher ▪ Analyzing environmental problems generally
Week 7: submit video requires a holistic, multidisciplinary
Week 8: exam approach, ESA integrates:
Self study: reading, watch knowledge clips, prepare o disciplines (natural and social sciences)
lecture, prepare questions, work on project
o compartments (terrestrial and aquatic
environment, atmosphere)
Climate change: a relevant topic o scales (local to global)
It has several impacts on earth depending on
the degrees example: E. Coli concentrations in Kabul river:
The target of getting below 2 degrees increase people, cattle, and wild life are emitting E. Coli in
in temperature is not possible with current the river (directly or indirectly: poop) → it is a
policies: we need to follow the orange line poor area and has a high chance on flooding →
leads to a higher chance of spreading
risk of diarrheal disease through:
1. drinking water
2. recreational water
3. irrigated vegetables
step 1: problem formulation:
o determine boundary conditions and scales
environmental systems analysis: the study of (location, region) river basin of the Kabul
complex environmental problems by identifying river, Indus river
and analyzing (1) causes, (2) processes, (3) o determine stakeholders (involved):
impacts and (4) potential solutions; this can give local: inhabitants, exposed people, water
a more realistic view on possible futures and companies, local government
impacts national: national government
environmental systems analysis research is international: WHO
quantitative (measuring processes, components o give detailed problem formulation: it contains
and interactions) on different scales (local or a question and the scale and actors:
global) and includes also social aspect (not How will the concentrations of E. coli in the
quantifiable) Kabul river water at Nowshera change due
to climate change? And how can the
Flex-Step method: stakeholders adapt to these changes?
Step 1: problem formulation: formulate the at the point (Nowshera in Kabul river)
climate change related problem scale, so for the local stakeholders.
Step 2: analysis: current and future impacts and
formulate (adaptation) options step 2: analysis:
Step 3: dissemination: synthesizing and o develop research approach: determine how
communicate results you will analyze this problem
→ with this method we can assess climate o construct and apply models and tools:
change impacts and adaptation regression model
1
, o analyze and rank alternatives: tools used for studies are dependent on the
→ multiple components can be present in the (1) aim and (2) topic used and (3) number of
analysis: tools
• impact analysis → for some studies the use of one tool may be
• capacity analysis sufficient, for others a range of different tools
• scenario analysis can be combined
• ranking analysis: analysis and ranking of
the adaptation options (MCA: multi- In this course the tools used will be:
criteria analysis) 1. causal diagram
aim: link elements and processes of
step 3: dissemination: environmental change in order to relate causes
o synthesis (of findings) (combine) and effects
o communication (of findings): take into system description: a framework for analysis
account: or modelling
1. the stakeholders involved example: DPSIR
2. what their interests are, and how they
can be reached 2. regression model
3. what you want to communicate: aim: quantify relationships
options: depending on the type of audience system description: a
● Scientific paper model that determines
● Policy brief whether relationships are
● Newspaper articles present; based on y=β0+β1x
● Websites example:
● Videos
3. scenario analysis:
ESA tools: can be used to achieve the system
aim:
analysis
▪ to anticipate future developments of society
1) stakeholder analysis: understand the interests
and the environment
and roles of stakeholders in an environmental ▪ to evaluate strategies for responding to
problem these developments
2) ecosystem service analysis: understand the systems description: a plausible description of
benefits provided by ecosystems (determine
how the future may unfold based on 'if-then'
what the ecosystem provides)
propositions (anticipate and evaluate)
3) scenario analysis: analyze how an
environmental problem may evolve in the future
4. multicriteria analysis:
(analyze possible futures (of an environmental
aim: analyze and evaluate alternatives and
problem))
preferences on different criteria
4) life cycle assessment: LCA: understand the
systems description: structured approach
environmental impact of a product (throughout
used to analyze overall possible alternatives and
its life: raw material to recycling or trash)
preferences and evaluate them under different
5) environmental impact assessment (EIA): to
criteria at the same time
understand the environmental impact of a
project
→ use different criteria and determine on which
6) environmental cost benefit analysis (ECBA):
aspects the scenario works best
to analyze the costs and benefits of different
environmental measures/response options
(monetary)
7) multi-criteria analysis: MCA: analyze the costs
and benefits of different environmental
measures/response options (advantages and
disadvantages)
8) conceptual model: to understand the basic
structure and relations of environmental
problems (such as a causal diagram or DPSIR)
9) modelling: to quantitatively analyze the
dynamics (and/or spatial aspects) of an
environmental problem: regression model
these tools can be used in scientific analyses
and assessments (to support policy making)
2
, 02 INTRODUCTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE CH4: 12 y – N2O: 100 y – CO2: centuries
▪ I understand the natural greenhouse effect and CO2 concentrations are
global warming potentials going down much
▪ I understand the drivers of the enhanced slower, it has a flatter
greenhouse effect curve (so at a very large
▪ I understand the enhanced greenhouse effect time period it will level
▪ I understand how future climate change is off to 20% max: never
modelled reaches 0%?)
→ so CO2 is a stronger GHG than CH4 or N2O
NATURAL GREENHOUSE EFFECT AND GLOBAL WARMING (when including (1) potency and (2) time)
POTENTIALS
→ natural variation climate change is also caused by natural
the greenhouse effect: incoming solar radiation variations:
is partly (1) reflected by clouds and atmosphere 1) Milankovitch cycle:
or (2) absorbed (by the surface) after which it 1. eccentricity: the ellipse of the
reflects (is trapped and radiated back to earth or earth around the sun changes;
is going through the atmospheric window; GHG becomes more ovular or circular
dependent) (100 ky)
→ net absorbed radiation is higher than radiated 2. obliquity: the angle of the earth
in or back: results in warming surface (causes change in seasons and
→ CO2 can trap heat (heat is absorbed) day), the degrees can change →
less variable; axis tilts more in the
global warming potential: the amount of heat direction of the equator (41ky)
trapped by 1 kg of a GHG over a certain period 3. precession: the precession
of time relative to the amount of heat trapped by changes (change in orientation of the axis:
1 kg of CO2 over the same time period in which direction the earth tilts) → more
ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑡 𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑑 (𝐺𝐻𝐺 ) variable; north pole tilts more in the direction
𝐺𝑊𝑃(𝑥) = of the equator or south pole tilts more in the
ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑡 𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑑 𝐶𝑂2 direction of the equator (19-24 ky)
→ where 1kg of GHG and 1 kg of CO2 is used,
with the same time period CO2, CH4, and T increase or
→ GWP is determined by: the potency of the
decrease at the same time due to
gas, the time
these variations (same patterns)
the two determining elements are:
1. potency: how strong the GHG is 2) sunspots: solar activity differs per place on
2. time: how long the gas stays in the the sun, the solar activity is stabilizing, but
atmosphere the temperature of the sun is going up; the
more sunspots, the more solar radiation,
CH4 and N2O are more potent greenhouse the higher the temperature
gasses (a is larger), but their lifetime is much 3) volcanoes: aerosols (ash/dust) and SO2
shorter (t is smaller) than CO2
can cool the earth, but also warm: GHG
El Niňo Southern Oscillation: changes in T
The GWP can be very different depending on Warm sea water in South America creates a
the time period: GWP differs over time: High pressure in Western Pacific
GWP CH4 (20 year): 84 (without climate f eedbacks)
GWP N 2 O (20 year): 264 (without climate f eedbacks) → this influences the climate (ocean currents
GWP CH4 (100 year): 28 (without climate f eedbacks) can influence this)
GWP N 2 O (100 year): 265 (without climate f eedbacks
→ this is due to differences in lifetime of
DRIVERS OF THE ENHANCED GREENHOUSE EFFECT
different GHG
→non-natural variation
contributes to the natural increase in T; the CO2
concentration is increasing (seasonal dependent
still (small variations), but increasing every year)
CO2 concentration today: 416.29 ppm
the seasonal variation can be explained by:
smaller lifetime larger lifetime the vegetation uptake in summer and spring
[C] decreases fast [C] decreases slow → concentrations are lower in NH: NH has
higher landmass → more plants in the NH →
but there is a difference in how potent it is, lower concentrations due to uptake of CO2 by
depending on the lifetime of the GHG. vegetation (oceans take up CO2 too, but this
has not this large influence on the variability)
3
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