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PSYC1010 - UNIT 3 Notes
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in-depth and completed statistics notes for unit 3
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PSYC1010 Unit 3: Probability – Part 1Probability
“...is the likelihood that any one event will occur, given all the possible outcomes”.
“p” = probability (ratio or decimal)
Assigning a probability value to an inference
Example
o Flipping a coin, rolling a dice
Probability as a Mathematical System
The sample space is a set of points (data)
Persons, businesses, cities, schools
What are events?
o Observable occurrences
A heads on a coin flip
S
o Sample space
o In red
Event
o A single element in the sample space
o 5 stars, 3 triangles, 3 circles
11 total events
o If you don’t know events, you cannot calculate probability
Probability Statement
A statement of the relative frequency of an event associated with the sample space
Example
o English alphabet
What is the sample space?
26 letters, A to Z inclusive
What is the probability of event “A” occurring?
P(A) = probability of event A
Definition
o The probability of event A, P(A), is the ratio of the number of sample points that
are examples of A to the total FINITE number of sample points in the sample
space, assuming all sample points are equally likely
Probability Example
What is the probability of rolling a 3 (facing up) on a single dice?
o What is the sample space?
6 possible sample points, equally likely, 1 to 6 inclusive
o What is the probability of event A?
Event A = rolling a 3 up
o P(A) = probability of event A
P(3) = probability of rolling a 3
o P(A) = # of examples of A / Total number of sample points
P(3) = 1/6
= 0.167
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