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Aantekeningen college's Application of Theories
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Lectures Application of Theories06-09-2023
Introduction and overview
How can we go from theory to empirical research.
The life-cycle of scientific research: (in this course we focus on the blue one’s)
Theory construction is vaguer. Methods allow replication, replicability is key in
science. Methods give credibility. If you want to disagree, you must attack the
method, you can’t just say it’s wrong.
Scientists measured that neutrinos travelled faster than light, instead of just
saying it’s not possible, they had to attack the method that was used.
Sociological theories may imply counter-intuitive predictions. To demonstrate their
validity, you need an accepted method. Like that a person that drowns in a lake
where there are a lot of people, it is more likely that he will drown, than when there is
only a couple of people around. This is counter intuitive.
“Whole does not equal the sum of its parts; it is something different, whose properties
differ from those displayed by the parts from which it is formed.” Durkheim.
Cities segregate, even if residents are tolerant. Look at the whole society.
Public goods deteriorate, even if most people value them.
08-09-2023
Where have all the criminals gone?
Crime rates increased, but the trend got
reversed. Different types of crime began to drop.
The rates of intentional homicide rates dropped.
They discuss a list of explanations. Ranked by
popularity (in the media).
,Crime-drop explanation:
1. Strong economy.
“The decline in crime that began in the early 1990s was accompanied by a blistering
national economy”.
Defending: a lot of crime happens within the criminal organizations.
Critique: in the 1990’s the economy, the economy grew. This while crime rates
decreased. The theory shouldn’t only apply to the 1990’s. Also, in other times when
the economy went better, the rates should decrease. But in the 60’s, this wasn’t the
case. It contradicts the theory.
2. Increased reliance prisons.
“Between 1980 and 2000, there was a fifteenfold increase in the number of people
sent to prison on drug charges”.
Defending: If all the criminals are in prison, they can’t commit a crime. If you lock
them up, there are fewer people who would commit crime.
Critique: Not much critique. Yes, it explains a part. But still, it can’t explain the whole
decrease. Looked at the correlation: put in prison higher crime rates. We may not
see the cause. It is one of the answers, but not the whole answer (one-third of the
drop in crime).
3. More capital punishment.
“The number of executions in the United States quadrupled between the 1980s and
the 1990s”.
Defending: Execute more people. This leads to a decrease, there are less people
that can commit to crime. The second argument is that if you might get executed, you
would be scared to commit the crime.
Critique: 1 execution leads to 7 fewer homicides. It’s tiny numbers. If we calculate
this, it doesn’t make much of a difference. Criminals on the street, have a higher risk
of dying, than sentenced to death.
They don’t present evidence of capital punishment anywhere else, but they went
against the logical assumptions of the theory. Statics show that the assumption is not
true.
People who are executed can’t commit crime people who otherwise been in prison
couldn’t commit a crime anyway. Not a strong fear.
, 4. More police.
Defending: Increasing the change that you may be caught. It’s a pretty good
explanation. The likelihood that you get caught works better than the severe of the
punishment.
Critique: If we look at the correlation, more police more crime. If there are more
police, there is more crime. More police lead to more crime?
Before elections, people who are in office, they try to show people that they keep
them safe more policeman. Afterwards it decreases again. This leads to a
decrease in crime rates.
5. Innovative policing.
Defending: Broken window theory. Punish people for small crimes, prevents bigger
crimes. Punish people for small crime cleaner environment other people will
less engage in crime.
(Example Lindenberg, flyers on the bikes and graffiti on the wall).
Critique: But the police chief was only there in 1994, while the crime rates already
decreased in 1990.
Crime should only decrease in states where the strategy is used. We should see a
decrease in New York but not Los Angeles, but this is not the case. The trend in the
same in Los Angeles, while they do not have the same strategy as New York
(generalization).
6. Tougher gun laws.
Defending: If people don’t have a gun, it’s more difficult to get a gun, so you can’t
commit a crime with a gun.
Critique: Sounds simple, if you have proper gun laws, there are not enough guns
around, but there are a lot of guns around there are enough. On the black market you
can get a gun.
If easy access to guns leads to a lot of crime, then we should look at a country like
Switzerland where guns are not easy to access.
7. Burst of the crack bubble.
Defending: The whole crack market was a contributor to crime. It was the people who
sold the crack. Fighting over the corners who would get to sell. When there was not
an incentive to get into a fight over the selling of crack, the crime rates will go down.
Critique: It was a substantial factor, but only for roughly 15 percent of the crime drop.
8. Aging population.
“Since people mellow out as they get older, more older people must lead to less
crime”.
Defending: Proportion in society decreases the number of homicides.
Critique: No empirically evidence, but the theory doesn’t work. It is small changes; it
is a too slow process.
9. Levitt’s theory.
Defending: If there is not an option for abortion, the child could commit crimes later.
This wouldn’t be the case if abortion was an option when you are in problems.
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