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Les 20/11Slide 1
International
Business
Universiteit
UniversiteitGent
Gent
Yann
YannDekeyser
Dekeyser
Fall
Fall2017
2017
Lauren Kleynjans – Senior Deal Advisor at KPMG
Part time journalist
Slide 2
Megatrends
shaping the
world of the
future
,ide 3
What is the life expectancy of a company?
AVERAGE LIFESPAN OF AN S&P 500 COMPANY
80 75
“A warning to execs: At current
70
churn rate, 75% of the S&P 500
60 will be replaced by 2027.”
- Richard Foster, Professor at Yale University
50
40
ICONIC COMPANIES REMOVED
30
20 15
10 5
0
1937 2011 2025
Source: KPMG International, “Future State 2030”; Innosight, “Creative Destruction Whips through Corporate America”
©2017 KPMG Advisory, a Belgian civil CVBA/SCRL and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a 3
Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Document Classification: KPMG Confidential
▪ Before the 2nd world war, the average lifespan of a company was 75 years
▪ In 2011 the average lifespan of an Standard & Poor’s 500 company ( an index for the
biggest companies in the US) was 15 years
▪ There is an expectation that in 2025 the average lifespan of a huge company will be 5
years
▪ There’s a chance that when we grow up, we practice a job that now doesn’t exist yet.
Iconic companies (like Kodak) are all gone
1
,Slide 4
How to cope with unicorns?
YEARS TO REACH $1 BILLION MARKET CAP
20 “W inners will win bigger, and
18
the rest will fight harder for the
16
remains.”
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Fortune Google Facebook Tesla Instacart Didi Uber Xiaomi Slack
500
company
Source: August, “The future of Organizations is Responsive”; Business Insider UK, “The 14 fastest unicorns to reach $1 billion”
©2017 KPMG Advisory, a Belgian civil CVBA/SCRL and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a 4
Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Document Classification: KPMG Confidential
How many years does it take for a company to reach 1$ Billion market cap
(= beurswaarde)
An average Fortune 500 company takes 20 years, Google 8 years, Facebook 4 years….
Conclusion: it goes really fast!
side 5
Four megatrends shaping the world of the future
DEMOGRAPHIC DYNAM ICS SH ARING RESPONSIBILITY
1 2
DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES SOCIAL VALUES & BEHAVIOR
3 4
©2017 KPMG Advisory, a Belgian civil CVBA/SCRL and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a 5
Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Document Classification: KPMG Confidential
What mega trends are we confronted with?
•Demographic dynamics
•Sharing responsibility
•Disruptive Technologies
•Social values and behavior
2
,Slide 6
Trend #1: demographic dynamics
GROWING POPULATION URBAN POPULATION AGING POPULATION
The world’s population will stop growing before By 2030, 4.9 billion, or 59% of the world’s By 2030, the world’s population of people aged
the end of this century as the population gr ow th population, will live in cities, starting fr om 3.5 65+ will double to 1 billion, raising the overall
rate will continue falling at the current pace. billion today (50% of the world’s population). proportion of those 65 and over.
10.9B
2010 8 % of population is65+
world urban
population 41% population 59%
2030 13% of population is 65+
Example: Growth of the population Example: ARS Traffic & Transport Example: The general aging of the
(and consumption) drives waste Technology has been providing traffic population is an important factor in
volumes and consequently also and transport solutions since 1997 favour of cruise shipping as the main
companies like Waste Ventures India . and profited from accelerated market remains older adults.
urbanization.
Impacted sectors? Impacted sectors? Impacted sectors?
— Waste processing — Logistics and infrastructure — Leisure and luxury
— Energy — Real estate development — Life and health insurance
— Agriculture — Security services — Asset management
— Agriculture — Health care
— Logistics and infrastructure
Source: Our World in Data; Roland Berger, “Trend Compendium 2030”; KPMG International, “Future State 2030”
©2017 KPMG Advisory, a Belgian civil CVBA/SCRL and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a 6
Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Document Classification: KPMG Confidential
▪ People are getting older population is growing
The population is living more and more in cities
This not only forms a threat but also opportunities
▪ How can future businesses benefit from this? (zie verder)
Slide 7
Trend #2: sharing responsibility
RESOURCE INSECURITY SOCIALLY RESPONSIBLE ECOSYSTEM AT RISK
By 2050, resource and energy c onsumption Philanthropy will gr ow further on a global level. Emission levels are too high – already 14%
could double if business continues as usual – we The number of active donors worldwide will higher than the estimated emission levels
would need three earths instead of one. increase by 400 million to 2.5 billion by 2030. required to meet the 2020 goals.
Current CO2 levels
2.5B
3 EARTHS NEEDED BY 2050 2.1B
CO2 levels to
meet 2020
goals
2010 2030 2013 2020
Example: Medentech began in 1984 Example: Ecover was founded in 1980 Example: Dredging company DEME
with the development of tablets as a to create phosphate-free cleaning broadened its portfolio substantially
disinfection solution and experienced products to reduce the environmental over the decades. Today’s activities
significant growth in the last decade. impact of cleaning agents. also encompass environmental works.
Impacted sectors? Impacted sectors? Impacted sectors?
— Agriculture — Cleaning — Construction and engineering
— Oil and gas — Consumer goods — Energy
— Power and utilities — Asset management — Agriculture
— Consultancy services — Travel
— Automotive and aerospace
Source: Siemens, “Life in 2050 – Megatrends shape our future”; Roland Berger, “Trend Compendium 2030”; KPMG International, “Future State 2030”;
©2017 KPMG Advisory, a Belgian civil CVBA/SCRL and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a 7
Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Document Classification: KPMG Confidential
3
,slide 8
Trend #3: disruptive technologies
INCREASING CONNECTIVITY FUTURE OF HEALTH POWER OF TECHNOLOGY
Half of the world’s population will have access In 1990 it took $1 billion to sequence a single Data gathered fr om users in cloud-based neural
to the Internet by 2030, up fr om 34% of the human genome for the first time. The cost of networks will power 40% of mobile interactions
population in 2012. sequencing today amounts to $1,000. between virtual assistants and people by 2020.
$1B
2010 34% Internet
virtual 40%
assistants
60%
$10-50M
2030 50% Internet $1,000
1990 2003 2016
Example: Car manufacturers (and tech Example: Barco is active in the health Example: With the help of bots, KLM
companies) are all working on more care segment, providing an integrated flyers are now able to get flight status
connected cars, and ultimately cars approach to patient care via a updates, access their boarding pass,
with autonomous functions. connected network of display etc. right from Facebook Messenger.
systems.
Impacted sectors? Impacted sectors? Impacted sectors?
— Automotive — Health care providers — Transport and m obility
— Telecom — Medical device companies — Financial services
— Hardware and software — Software companies — Communication
— Life and health insurance — Manufacturing
companies
—
Source: KPMG International, “Future State 2030”; HIT Consultant Media; The Motley Fool,“10 Stats about AI that w ill blow you aw ay”
©2017 KPMG Advisory, a Belgian civil CVBA/SCRL and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a 8
Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Document Classification: KPMG Confidential
Slide 9
Trend #4: social values & behaviour
PLATFORM ECONOMY PERSONALIZATION INSECURE WORLD
In just five years time, over 50 billion things will Today 45% of online shoppers are mor e likely to The global economic cost of terrorism reached
be connected to the Internet, or 5 times more shop on a site that offers personalized an all-time peak at $52.9 billion, or a tenfold of
than today. recommendations. the cost in 2000.
$52.9B
10B things connected to Internet
Now
online
45%
shoppers
50B things connected to Internet
In 5 years
2000 2013 2014
Example: Avis, a leading global Example: Nike customers can design Example: Betafence transformed itself
provider of vehicle rental services, their own shoes and accessories on from a provider of garden fences to
embraced car sharing with the NIKEiD, using fabrics, material and sophisticated security solutions
acquisition of Zipcar in 2013. colour tools. against terrorists and other.
What ’s in it for you? What ’s in it for you? What ’s in it for you?
— Automotive — Retail — Security services
— Travel — Health care — Travel
— Housing — Financial services — Leisure
— Consultancy — Insurance
— Retail
Source: CGE, “The Rise of the Platform Enterprise”; Invesp, “Online Shopping Personalization”; Global Terrorism Index 2015
©2017 KPMG Advisory, a Belgian civil CVBA/SCRL and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a 9
Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Document Classification: KPMG Confidential
4
,Slide 10
Trend #1:
demographic
dynamics
Slide 11
©2017 KPMG Advisory, a Belgian civil CVBA/SCRL and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a 11
Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Document Classification: KPMG Confidential
Population is growing like hell
5
,slide 12
Ending with a (Mexico)
city trip
©2017 KPMG Advisory, a Belgian civil CVBA/SCRL and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a 12
Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Document Classification: KPMG Confidential
Population of Mexico city = 25 million
The city is growing and traffic can not follow! it takes 1 hour to travel 6 km by car
Slide 13
©2017 KPMG Advisory, a Belgian civil CVBA/SCRL and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a 13
Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Document Classification: KPMG Confidential
▪ Europese bevolking stijgt met 1,5 miljoen door migratie (niet door de eigen populatie)
▪ How many children do you need to keep your population stable? = 2,1 children
▪ So if you want to grow your population, you need more than 2,1 children, but do we have
that in Belgium? No! So we need migration, and our population is getting older
6
,Slide 14
Increasing urbanisation…
©2017 KPMG Advisory, a Belgian civil CVBA/SCRL and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a 14
Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Document Classification: KPMG Confidential
“If you really want to earn big money, buy a plot of land somewhere far away from the city
and just wait for the city to come. “ suddenly you’ll have valuable ground
Slide 15
… as megacities are set for megagrowth
©2017 KPMG Advisory, a Belgian civil CVBA/SCRL and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a 15
Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Document Classification: KPMG Confidential
▪ This is the population between 2011 and 2025
▪ For example Mexico city: was 20 million will become 25 million
▪ Tokyo: 37 million people will become nearly 40 million people (in 1 city)
7
,Slide 16
Need for smart cities
©2017 KPMG Advisory, a Belgian civil CVBA/SCRL and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a 16
Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Document Classification: KPMG Confidential
▪ In order for those people to live in such big cities, they need to be connected
“Connect the dots”
How is this possible? Smart cities
▪ Smart city = city whereby people are connected by the use of technology (to let them live
together)
▪ Private equity company Belgium: Gimv
- They have re-organized themselves in subgroups (healthcare, smartcities,..)
And smaller (3D printed) homes
©2017 KPMG Advisory, a Belgian civil CVBA/SCRL and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a 17
Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Document Classification: KPMG Confidential
▪ All these people need to live, how can we build houses?
Why not print a house? = reality!!
▪ Cost of a printed house = less than 15.000$
8
, side 18
How smart cities can improve our lives
©2017 KPMG Advisory, a Belgian civil CVBA/SCRL and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a 18
Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Document Classification: KPMG Confidential
▪ Companies also try to adapt themselves
▪ For example: Phillips (a multinational which is multi-centred and which uses different
geographies to develop different businesses)
▪ We look at Phillips like a tv-producing company or a radio-producing company, but in the
video we see that they also grow plants (GrowWise Center)
- They try to understand cityfarming indoor
▪ With their knowledge of lightning, they work together with plant specialists, who knows a
lot about the interaction of lightning and growing crops
- Lightning is a very important aspect! When u change the lightning, you change the
whole mechanism in the plant itself
- To play with those kinds of mechanisms in the plant, you can create our optimal
plant, but also steer the plant in the way you want
- Another advantage of indoor growing is that you don’t need crop protection (for
insects, diseases,…)
▪ Would you ever think about Phillips as the next big agriculture company?
Phillips has connected the dots
▪ Core competence of Phillips = light
▪ They connected the dots: growing population in cities growing plants inside with light-
technologies
▪ They spare a lot of space by planting the crops vertical
▪ Is this a form of internationalization? Yes and no it is internationalization in a city that
doesn’t exist.
9
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