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,Chapter 1MULTIPLE CHOICE TEST BANK
Note: The correct answer is denoted by **.
1. Which of the following does not require sophisticated quantitative forecasts?
A) Accounting revenue forecasts for tax purposes.
B) Money managers use of interest rate forecasts for asset allocation decisions.
C) Managers of power plants using weather forecasts in forecasting power demand.
D) State highway planners require peak load forecasts for planning purposes.
E) All the above require quantitative forecasts. **
2. Under what circumstances may it make sense not to prepare a business forecast?
A) No data is readily available.
B) The future will be no different from the past. **
C) The forecast horizon is 40 years.
D) There is no consensus among informed individuals.
E) The industry to forecast is undergoing dramatic change.
3. What is most likely to be the major difference between forecasting sales of a private
business versus forecasting the demand of a public good supplied by a governmental agency?
A) Amount of data available.
B) Underlying economic relationships.
C) Lack of market-determined price data for public goods. **
D) Last of historical data.
E) Lack of quantitative ability by government forecasters.
4. Which of the following points about supply chain management is incorrect?
A) Forecasts are required at each step in the supply chain.
B) Forecasts of sales are required for partners in the supply chain.
C) Collaborative forecasting systems across the supply chain are needed.
D) If you get the forecast right, you have the potential to get everything else right in
the supply chain.
E) None of the above. **
5. Which of the following is not typically part of the traditional forecasting textbook?
A) Classical statistics applied to business forecasting.
B) Use of computationally intensive forecasting software. **
C) Attention to simplifying assumptions about the data.
D) Discussion of probability distributions.
1
, E) Attention to statistical inference.
6. Which subjective forecasting method depends upon the anonymous opinion of a panel of
individuals to generate sales forecasts?
A) Sales Force Composites.
B) Customer Surveys.
C) Jury of Executive Opinion.
D) Delphi Method. **
E) None of the above.
7. Which subjective sales forecasting method may have the most information about the
spending plans of customers for a specific firm?
A) Sales Force Composites. **
B) Index of consumer sentiment.
C) Jury of Executive Opinion.
D) Delphi Method.
E) None of the above.
8. Which subjective sales forecasting technique may have problems with individuals who
have a dominant personality?
A) Sales Force Composites.
B) Customer Surveys.
C) Jury of Executive Opinion. **
D) Delphi Method.
E) None of the above.
9. Which of the following methods is not useful for forecasting sales of a new product?
A) Time series techniques requiring lots of historical data. **
B) Delphi Method.
C) Consumer Surveys.
D) Test market results.
E) All the above are correct.
10. Which of the following is not considered a subjective forecasting method?
A) Sales force composites.
B) Naive methods. **
C) Delphi methods.
D) Juries of executive opinion.
E) Consumer surveys.
11. Which of the following is not an argument for the use of subjective forecasting models?
2
, A) They are easy for management to understand.
B) They are quite useful for long-range forecasts.
C) They provide valuable information that may not be present in quantitative models.
D) They are useful when data for using quantitative models is extremely limited.
E) None of the above. **
12. Forecasts based solely on the most recent observation(s) of the variable of interest
A) are called “naive” forecasts.
B) are the simplest of all quantitative forecasting methods.
C) leads to loss of one data point in the forecast series relative to the original series.
D) are consistent with the “random walk” hypothesis in finance, which states that the
optimal forecast of today's stock rate of return is yesterday's actual rate of return.
E) All the above. **
13. You are given a time series of sales data with 10 observations. You construct forecasts
according to last period’s actual level of sales plus the most recent observed change in sales.
How many data points will be lost in the forecast process relative to the original data series?
A) One.
B) Two. **
C) Three.
D) Zero.
E) None of the above.
14. Suppose you are attempting to forecast a variable that is independent over time such as
stock rates of return. A potential candidate-forecasting model is
A) The Jury of Executive Opinion.
B) Last period’s actual rate of return. **
C) The Delphi Method.
D) Last period’s actual rate of return plus some proportion of the most recently
observed rate of change in the series.
E) None of the above.
15. Measures of forecast accuracy based upon a quadratic error cost function, notably root
mean square error (RMSE), tend to treat
A) levels of large and small forecast errors equally.
B) large and small forecast errors equally on the margin.
C) large and small forecast errors unequally on the margin. **
D) every forecast error with the same penalty.
E) None of the above.
16. Which of the following is incorrect? Evaluation of forecast accuracy
3
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