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Collegedictaat week 6 Finance
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Hoorcolleges week 6 – efficiënte markthypothese / fusies en overnamesEfficiënte markthypothese
- Drie vormen van markt efficiëntie
Random walk Dronkenman pad
In een efficiënte markt is alle relevante informatie volledig verwerkt in de marktprijzen
- Implicaties
o Prijsaanpassingen als gevolg van nieuwe info zijn direct en correct
o Prijs = waarde
o Op basis van de beschikbare informatie is niet mogelijk systematisch
buitengewone rendementen te behalen
Fama onderscheidt de volgende drie vormen van markt efficiëntie:
1. Zwakke vorm
Aandelenkoersen reflecteren informatie uit historische koersen. Als de markt efficiënt
is in de zwakke vorm, dan is het – door het bestuderen van historische koersen –
onmogelijk de markt systematisch te verslaan
2. Semi-sterke vorm
Aandelenkoersen reflecteren alle publiekelijk
beschikbare informatie. Als de markt efficiënt is
in de semi-sterke vorm, dan is het – op basis van
publiek beschikbare informatie – onmogelijk de
markt systematisch te verslaan
3. Sterke vorm
Aandelenkoersen reflecteren alle informatie, dus
ook ‘inside’ informatie. Als de markt efficiënt is
in de sterke vorm, dan is het – door het bestuderen van publiekelijk beschikbare en
inside informatie – onmogelijk de markt systematisch te verslaan
Vorm Efficient m.b.t. Gerelateerd onderwerp
Zwak Historische info Technische analyse
Semi-sterk Publieke info Eventstudies,
beleggingsadviezen
Sterk Alle info Insider-trading
Lessen voor beleggers en corporate managers
- Consequences for investors
o If stocks are fairly priced, then investors who buy stocks can expect to receive
future cash flows that fairly compensate them for the risk of their investment
o The average investor can invest with confidence, even if he is not fully
informed
- Implications for corporate managers
o Focus on NPV
o Avoid accounting illusions (e.g. increasing EPS)
o Use financial transactions to support investment (the firm should not be
constrained from raising capital to fund positieve NPV opportunities)
De NCW van een overname
- Waarom nemen ondernemingen andere ondernemingen over?
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