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Brexit
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Dorling, D. (2016) Brexit: the decision of a divided country, BMJ 2016; 354 doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.i3697 (Published 06 July 2016), Please cite this as: BMJ 2016;354:i3697
Toll free: http://www.bmj.com/content/354/bmj.i3697.full?ijkey=Qzh0MvExCSL1BkA&keytype=ref
Brexit: The decision of a divided country
(longer than published version, as originally submitted)
Danny Dorling
On the same day that the UK voted to leave the EU, huge rises in UK death rates were reported. These
rises followed the austerity policies enacted by the 2010 Coalition government1. Self-reported health
was a key component of David Cameron’s wellbeing index, and it declined in every year of his
premiership, most rapidly towards the end.2 In March 2016 ONS reported that: “The proportion of
people aged 16 and over in the UK who were somewhat, mostly or completely satisfied with their
health was lower in the financial year ending 2014 (57.8%) than in the previous year (59.3%). The
way in which people view their health is crucial to well-being.”3
Brandishing the campaign slogan ‘Vote leave, take control’4, Leave secured 51.9% of the referendum
vote. However, thirteen million registered voters did not vote. An additional seven million eligible
adults were not registered to vote in 2016. 5 They were disproportionately ‘the young; flat-dwellers,
especially renters; members of ethnic minorities; [and] recent movers’.6 This does not include the
millions of mainland EU citizens and 16 and 17 year olds who were denied a vote.
The outcome of the EU referendum has been unfairly blamed on the working class in the North of
England, and even on obesity: ‘personality traits that characterize both Leave voters and obese
adults’7. However, because of differential turnout and the size of the denominator population, most
people who voted Leave lived in the South of England.8 Furthermore, of all those who voted for
Leave 59% were middle class (A, B or C1), and 41% were working class (C2, D or E). The proportion
of Leave voters who were of the lowest two social classes was just 24%.9 The Leave voters among the
middle class were crucial to the final result. This was because the middle class constituted two thirds
of all those who voted. If personality traits mattered, it was of some of those who led, funded and ran
the campaigns.10
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