, Lecture 1: introduction
29/08/2017
Sources of knowledge
1. Intuition we can’t say when it’s wrong or right X
2. Personal experience * not enough as a real proof X
3. Common sense massive groups can also have wrong ideas X
4. Authority there are diffirent sources… which one?! X
* Problems with personal experience:
Sampling bias the experience is coincidental for once
Observer bias your observations are influenced by your expectations
Confounding there are also other factors that you don’t see
Solution: the scientific method!
Be prepared to test your ideas against observations
Respect those observations, even if they disqualify your beloved ideas.
Why does science work?
Scientific publications
o Open methodology
o Connection evidence & conclusion = public Threats to validity!
o Other researcher scan dispute conclusions and redo the research
Science is self-correcting!
A.D. de Groot: The empirical cycle
1) Observation you notice something everyone speaks Egyptian
2) Theory you formulate a hypothesis Egyptian is the original language
3) Prediction you make a testable prediction a baby automatically speaks Egypt
4) Testing you test your prediction a baby locked up and says ‘bread’
5) Evaluation you evaluate the result the theory is not right
BUT: go through the entire cycle, don’t miss out on prediction and testing!
Irrefutable theories: some theorie can not be tested. For example: religious theories prove the
existence of God, but you can’t make a testable prediction from this hypothesis.
Not falsifiable: you can not finish the sentence ‘If theory X wouldn’t be true, then…’, the theory is
irrefutable and with that scientifically speaking worthless.
Principle of falsifiabilty: a hypothetis can be considered as a scientific theory only if it can be
disproved (Karl Popper).
- It’s not about what you observe, it’s about what you could observe.
Correction mechanisms
There are two correction mechanisms:
- During the publication process peer review
- After the publication process replication
Replication = the action of copying/reproduce something.
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