managing consumer uncertainty in the adoption of new products
managing consumer uncertainty in the adoption of new products temporal distance and mental simulation
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Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU)
Msc. Marketing
Consumer Marketing
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Managing Consumer Uncertainty in the Adopton of New Products
Castano, Sujan, Kacker & Sujan
Study 1
Theory
Consumers are faced with uncertainty when predictnn the value of new products:
Performance uncertainty: related to estmatnn the expected utlity of the product;
Symbolic uncertainty: the symbolic values of self-esteem and status conferred by adoptnn
new products;
Switching-cost uncertainty: associated with learninn the steps to use the innovaton
effectvely;
Affective uncertainty: the emotonal atachment to old technolony and traditonal products.
As the tme to decision draws near, people become more concerned with the nenatve aspects of
choice optons. Mananinn uncertaintes about costs is important for near-future adopton decisions,
whereas mananinn uncertaintes about benefts is important in distant-future adopton decisions.
We predict that:
In the near future: more uncertainty about switchinn-costs (tme, effort, fnancial risks) and
more affectve uncertainty (abandon the affectve atachment to the familiar);
In the distant future: hinher need to determine the uncertaintes about the performance and
symbolic value of the new product.
Hypothesis 1: when consumers are considerinn adoptnn a new product in the near future, they will
focus more on the constraints than on the benefts of adopton, such that they will have hinher
switchinn-cost uncertainty and affectve uncertainty, but lower performance uncertainty and
symbolic uncertainty.
Emotons associated with uncertainty:
Nenatve: anxiety and fear;
Positve: hope and optmism.
Hypothesis 2: when consumers are considerinn adoptnn a new product in the near future, they will
have nreater feelinns of anxiety, reduced feelinns of optmism, and low intentons to adopt.
Method
Partcipants were presented with a descripton of a virtual course, which explained the transmission
process, the formaton of virtual teams and the benefts and challennes of the new technolony.
Partcipants were told to imanine themselves in a situaton in which they needed to make the
decision to renister either tomorrow (near tme frame) or a year from now (distant tme frame).
Then, they completed a questonnaire and were debriefed.
Results
Switchinn-cost and affectve uncertainty was hinher in the near-future (vs. distant-future)
conditon;
Performance uncertainty was lower is the near-future (vs. distant-future) conditon;
No sinnifcant difference in symbolic uncertainty between conditons;
Feelinns of anxiety were hinher in the near-future (vs. distant-future) conditon;
Feelinns of optmism were hinher in the distant-future (vs. near-future) conditon;
Behavioural intentons were hinher in the distant-future (vs. near-future) conditon.
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