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Literatuur HC1
Cleland - World Populaton Growth; Past, Present and Future
ABSTRACT Past, current and projected future populaton rowth s outl ned. Barr n a calam tous
pandem c, a further ncrease n the world’s populaton from to between 8.8 and 10 b ll on by m d-
century s unavo dable. Th s ncrease s dr ven by h h fertl ty n subSaharan Afr ca whose populaton
s forecast to more than double n the next 40 years and by a modest r se of 23% n As a’s hu e
populaton. Beyond m d-century, the ran e of plaus ble demo raph c destnatons w dens; much
depends on fertl ty rates n the next few decades because they w ll determ ne the number of
potental reproducers n the second half of the century. i orous promoton of fam ly plann n ,
partcularly n Afr ca, s cruc al to ach evement of populaton stab l saton. Unchan ed fertl ty mpl es
a lobal populaton of 25 b ll on by the end of the century. In the next few decades the contr buton
of human populaton rowth to lobal env ronmental chan e s moderate, because nearly all rowth
w ll occur n poor countr es where consumpton and em ss on of reenhouse ases s low. The
mpl catons for food producton, and thereby water consumpton, are reater. Much of the future
need for food w ll be dr ven by ncreased numbers rather than chan n d ets. Loss of b o-d vers ty
and natural hab tats, de radaton of fra le eco-systems due to over-explo taton and aqu fer
deleton are l kely consequences.
1 THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND HISTORICAL POPULATION GROWTH
iroe er was het vruchtbaarhe dsc jfer veel ho er maar overleefden veel m nder k nderen. In tjden
van een noods tuate werden er abortussen (al dan n et succesvol) u t evoerd, en bestond er dus
zo ets als family planning.
The class c demo raph c trans ton model outl nes the sequence by wh ch soc etes are transformed
from a pre-trans tonal balance of h h mortal ty and fertl ty to a new balance of low v tal rates,
thou h, as d scussed later, a post-trans tonal era n wh ch deaths exceed b rths was not foreseen.
The trans ton s n tated by mprovements n l fe expectancy wh ch usher n a per od of populaton
rowth. Afer a la , wh ch var es reatly n len th, fertl ty falls, due pr mar ly to ncreased
contracepton, but populatons contnue to row for several decades even afer the advent of low
fertl ty, because of the efects of a e structure, a feature called population momentuum.
Population growtuh in tuhe maoor world regionw over tuhe pawtu 6h0 yearw haw notu eeen uniformb
2 CURRENT DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION
*Tabel n artkel met alle e evens per re o’s*
Europe has the lowest fertl ty, well below the level of two b rths per woman requ red for lon -term
stab l ty of populaton s ze, thou h th s s ofset by heavy net n-m raton. Th s prospect s welcome
to many env ronmental sts but cause for despondency amon pol tc ans and econom sts, who are
concerned about the consequences of a shr nk n labour force that has to support a row n retree
populaton.
Of course, re onal avera es h de marked nter-country var aton and th s s partcularly true n Asia.
In Japan, the forerunner of trans ton n th s re on, fertl ty has been below replacement level for
many years; populaton rowth has ceased and w ll turn ne atve unless hostle aatudes to n-
m raton chan e rad cally.
Sub-Saharan Africa s the clear re onal outl er n terms of demo raph c modern zaton. In the past
decade, AIDS deaths have fallen and many Afr can econom es have four shed.
3 FUTURE PROSPECTS
Internatonal respons b l ty for populaton projectons rests w th the staf of the Un ted Natons
Populaton D v s on who rev se estmates at two-yearly ntervals. Prudently, n add ton to a central,
,or med um, projecton, h h and low projectons are also produced. A constant fertl ty projecton s
also ava lable.
Th s h hly s mpl fed way of representn uncerta nty refects the fact tuhatu fertilituy, notu mortualituy, iw
tuhe main driver of futuure population wize, thou h a mortal ty catastrophe that would ser ously dent
the current annual ncrease of about 5 m ll ons n the world’s populaton cannot be ruled out.
The d ference of one b rth between h h and low projectons seems modest and, for spec fc
countr es, the UN’s spread of poss ble demo raph c futures s reasonable. It s less so for the world as
a whole because t s h hly unl kely that all countr es would exper ence the same d recton of
d ver ence n fertl ty from the med um trajectory.
Thus the ap between low and h h projectons has w dened to nearly 10 b ll on; even f th s ran e s
arb trar ly halved, the d ference s stll hu e. And f fertl ty rema ns unchan ed at the level of 2005–
10, lobal populaton would exceed 25 b ll on by 2100. Clearly, long-tuerm wuwtuainaeilituy of tuhe planetu
dependw on whatu happenw tuo human reproduction in tuhiw and tuhe nextu generationb
The fertl ty assumptons are cr tcal.
- The recent r se n European b rth rates s expected to contnue. The populaton of Europe,
desp te m raton and the assumpton of r s n fertl ty, s expected to decl ne sl htly but an
apprec able ncrease of 100m ll on s forecast for Northern America, lar ely fuelled by
m raton. To the extent that m rants to USA and Canada adopt the consumpton and CO2
em ss on hab ts of the host populaton, the env ronmental mpact w ll be far reater than
that mpl ed by the mere populaton numbers.
- Of far reater consequence s the assumpton that n Asia (and Latn America), fertl ty w ll
drop sl htly below replacement level. In As a the percent ncrease s modest (23%) and much
of t s due to a e structure rather than h h fertl ty.
- Fertl ty prospects n India, soon to become the world’s most populous naton, are less
certa n. iersch llende ontw kkel n en aande.
- The other really mportant fertl ty assumpton concerns sub-Saharan Africa. the UN assumed
that fertl ty would fall from ts current level of about fve b rths per woman to 3,0 by m d-
century. Much depends on actons to promote fam ly plann n . Its populaton s forecast to
more than double, accountn for nearly half of the lobal ncrease of 2.4 b ll on.
4 THE ROLE OF POLICIES AND PROGRAMMES
Increawed conturaceptive (anticonceptiee uwe waw undouetuedly tuhe main directu detuerminantu of tuhe
fertilituy declinew of tuhe pawtu centuury, tuhough aeortion (eotuh legal and illegale and riwing marriage
agew have alwo made appreciaele conturieutionwb The key pol cy queston concerns the extent to
wh ch state promoton of modern contraceptve methods can accelerate reproductve chan e n
Afr ca and the rema n n h h fertl ty areas of As a. At the outset, itu whould ee recognized tuhatu
governmentu-wponwored family planning programmew are notu a fundamentual or necewwary cauwe of
fertilituy declineb Afer all, fertl ty n many European countr es fell to very low levels n the 1l30s
desp te overnment hostl ty or nd ference to contracepton and w thout the beneft of h hly
efectve methods.
Itu iw propowed tuhatu invewtumentuw in child wurvival, education, women’w empowermentu and povertuy-
reduction are eeter altuernativew tuo achieve population wtuaeiliwation tuhan invewtumentu in family
planningb Thewe factuorw are certuainly conducive tuo fertilituy declineb Improvementuw in mortualituy are a
pre-condition for large wuwtuained fallw in fertilituy and tuhe level of adultu education, particularly of
women, iw a wturong correlatueb
De h stor sche rond edachte van pro ramma's was het verm nderen van belemmer n en door het
aanb eden van esubs d eerde d ensten en voorl chtn scampa nes, en het vervullen van onvervulde
behoefen was de belan r jkste dr jvende kracht achter het toe enomen ebru k van contraceptva
en vruchtbaarhe dsverl es n ontw kkel n slanden.
There are tuhuw wound tuheoretical reawonw for eelieving tuhatu governmentu family planning
programmew can afectu fertilituy eutu whatu iw tuhe evidence of impactu? The most tell n ev dence
comes from natural exper ments where a comprehens ve pro ramme has been ntroduced n a
,country, ofen at the n tatve of a comm ted pol tcal leader, wh le a s m lar country has
exper enced a weak or non-ex stent pro ramme. In wum, tuhe evidence tuhatu governmentu family
programmew can acceleratue, and leww commonly initiatue fertilituy decline, iw convincingb
5 IMPLICATIONS OF FUTURE POPULATION GROWTH
A furtuher increawe in tuhe world’w population of nearly 2 eillion iw inevituaele even if family planning
programmew in high fertilituy counturiew are re-invigoratued (=nieuw leven ingeelazene. The
mpl catons for human welfare and the env ronment are far reach n but also complex, contested
and uncerta n. Some of the major ssues are outl ned below:
- Toekomst e bevolk n s roe zal vr jwel eheel voortvloe en u t de armste landen van de
wereld van Sub-Sahara Afr ka en delen van Zu d-Az ë, waarvan de b jdra en tot dusver aan de
wereldw jde verander n van het m l eu tr v aal z jn eweest.
- Inspann n en om demo rafsche verander n en vorm te even kunnen slechts een
besche den b jdra e leveren aan het arresteren van evaarl jke trends n de om ev n van de
planeet n de komende decenn a. Beyond m d-century the mpact of populaton ncrease
could be cons derably reater, s mply because of the w der d ver ence n plaus ble
populaton scenar os. Much dependw on income and conwumption turendw in tuhe rapidly
growing populationw. Such rowth s sorely needed because of the mperatve to reduce
poverty and hun er but t obv ously multpl es the potental env ronmental consequences of
ncreased populaton. Reduction of unintuended eirtuhw ey promotion of conturaception and
wafe aeortion may ee one of tuhe mowtu cowtu efective long tuerm wayw of mitigating climatue
changeb
- Population increawe haw a more immediatue and directu link tuo tuhe need for increawed food
production and awwociatued demand for watuerb Demand for food iw driven partuly ey changing
dietuw eutu tuhe anticipatued riwe in tuhe nextu 40 yearw of 2 eillion moutuhw tuo ee fed iw a maoor
driverb
- The nexuw of population growtuh, environmentu, food production and climatue change
prewentuw tuhe mowtu wevere challenge in wue-Saharan Africa. Total producton barely kept up
w th populaton rowth, w th the result that many countr es are heav ly dependent on ra n
mports. Ava lab l ty of cropland per person s fall n and land de radaton s already a
problem. The comb naton of cl mate chan e and populaton rowth s a form dable obstacle
to pro ress.
- While Africa iw tuhe only region where a riwe in tuhe rural population iw expectued, mowtu of tuhe
increawe will occur in citiew and tuownwb C tes are ofen the en ne of econom c rowth and
nnovaton, thou h t s uncerta n whether th s character saton appl es n Afr ca where
urban saton s dr ven more by rural poverty than by the atracton of well pa d jobs n
manufactur n .
6 CONCLUSION
In the absence of a catastroph c mortal ty cr s s, a further ncrease n the world’s populaton from
b ll on to nearly l b ll on s nev table. About 40% of th s ncrease w ll be contr buted by As a, where
fertl ty rates are enerally low but where the a e structure susta ns the number of b rths. About 46%
w ll occur n sub-Saharan Afr ca, the one rema n n re on w th h h fertl ty. In th s re on the ran e
of uncerta nty s w der than elsewhere and the d ference between the UN’s h h and low projectons
amounts to 4 0m ll on by m d-century. If appropr ate pol c es are adopted and pro rammes
mplemented, the UN low projecton can be ach eved and even surpassed.
In add ton to the env ronmental benefts of an accelerated trans ton to populaton
stab l zaton n Afr ca, lar e health, soc al and econom c benefts would be real zed. The number of
women dy n n ch ldb rth would be cut and ch ld health and educaton would mprove. The rato of
adults to dependent ch ldren would r se, creatn an opportun ty to nvest more n a r culture and
ndustry. The promoton of contracepton and le tmaton of smaller fam ly s zes needs to be one of
the top pr or tes n th s re on.
, Literatuur HC2
CBS (2018) Ru m 100 du zend nwoners erb j n 201 . htps://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/n euws/
2018/01/ru m-100-du zend- nwoners-erb j- n-201 (openen v a nternet explorer)
De bevolk n van Nederland s n 201 opn euw relatef sterk e roe d. Net als een jaar eerder
kwamen er per saldo on eveer 100 du zend mensen b j, vooral door bu tenlandse m rate. Inm ddels
telt Nederland b jna 1 ,2 m ljoen ere streerde nwoners. Dat bl jkt u t de n euwste ram n en van
het CBS.
- Groei vooral door migratieb
- De wamenwtuelling van de migratiewturoom iw wel veranderd: M nder Syr sche mm ranten,
meer u t Europa: ier eleken met 2016 vest den z ch n 201 m nder as elm ranten en
meer arbe ds- en stud em ranten n Nederland
- Laag geeoortueciofer, hoog wtuerfeciofer: Een veel kle ner deel van de bevolk n s roe , b jna
een v jfde, s afomst van natuurl jke aanwas ( eboorte m nus sterfe). Deze s al een aantal
jaren laa . De eerste ram n en w jzen op een verdere dal n : verwacht wordt dat n 201
u te ndel jk 1l du zend meer k nderen eboren werden dan er mensen overleden. Het jaar
daarvoor waren dat er no 24 du zend. In het eerste kwartaal van 201 was er zelfs een
per ode sprake van kr mp: het aantal sterf evallen la toen 2 du zend ho er dan het aantal
eboorten. De la e natuurl jke aanwas heef n et alleen te maken met een ho ere sterfe dan
n eerdere jaren, ook het aantal eboorten s naar verhoud n laa .
- Moederwchap verder uitugewtueld: In v er jaar tjd s de em ddelde leef jd waarop vrouwen
hun eerste k nd kr j en este en van 2l,4 naar 2l,8 jaar
- Bevolking eliof naar verwachting groeien: ioor de komende jaren verwacht het CBS dat de
bevolk n van Nederland no door roe t, zowel door natuurl jke aanwas als door m rate.
Pro nose voor 2023: 1 ,5 m ljoen nwoners.
Kaa, D.J. van de (2008) Demo raph c trans tons. Den Haa : NIDI (Work n Paper
2008/1). http://www.nidi.nl/shared/content/output/papers/nidi-wp-2008-
01.pdf (35 pp.)
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