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Week 1 - International Crisis Diplomacy
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Introduction to crisis diplomacy in regards to how coercion is being used and the mechanisms of bluffing and uncertainty in international relations.
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INTERNATIONAL CRISIS DIPLOMACY MODULEWeek 1 – Coercion, Sanctions and the use of force in international
relations
Module overview - these 3 weeks is to deal with uncertainty
Theories of coercion
o What is coercion
o How coercion can change behaviour
o Before the crises happen
Costly signals
o We don’t know what other people think
Other its bluff or they mean it
o Audience costs
Making threats more credible
Costs attach to it
Reputation of the leaders
o Backing down sometimes good
Behaviour
Russia invades Ukraine
Economic sanctions
o Why it fails or success
Inducements
o Domestically that we used
o Give money /something in return
o Hard to use it in international stage due to variety of reasons
Carrots or sticks
o Giving them stuff
o How get people to do things
Force: Airpower
Psychology during crises
o Elites behaviour in crises
, o Looking at 2 areas
Analytical
Case studies
North Korea
o Is a weakest country
Manpower
Economic
However they are able to force their way in making
decisions
o Nuclear programme
Iran
o Suspicions of nuclear weapons but they didn’t build yet
Russia
o Old Crimea crises (2014)
o Current crises
o How can the West get Russia to back down
Research questions
Why does uncertainty matter ?
o We don’t know what's going on others mind
o No hegemon in international stages to enforce law
1994 : law to reduce weapons in NK
But it didn’t work
o States have an incentive to LIE in international stage
Cheap talk - incentives
Bluffing or telling the truth when one country threatens you
They need to determine whether it is true or not
o How to separate if they mean it or not
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