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QMB 3200 Final Exam (1).
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QMB 3200 Final ExamWhich of the following is not present in a time series? - ANS-Operational variations
The difference between the actual time series value and the forecast is called: -
ANS-forecast error
What type of analysis aims to discover a pattern in the historical data or time series and
then extrapolate the pattern into the future? - ANS-Time series analysis
The average of the absolute values of the forecast errors is called: - ANS-mean
absolute error
What is the component of a time series model that is attributable to multiyear cycles in
the time series? - ANS-The cyclical component
Time series regression refers to the use of regression analysis when the independent
variable is: - ANS-time
The method that uses the average of the most recent k data values in the time series as
the forecast for the next period is called: - ANS-moving averages
If the historical data are restricted to past values of the variable to be forecast, the
forecasting procedure is called a: - ANS-time series method
What forecasting method uses a weighted average of past time series values as the
forecast; it is a special case of the weighted moving averages method in which we
select only one weight—the weight for the most recent observation? - ANS-Exponential
smoothing
Seasonal and irregular components with values greater than 1.00 indicate effects _____
the trend estimate and values below 1.00 indicate effects _____ the trend estimate.
Which two words correctly complete this sentence? - ANS-above; below
Suppose sales data for the first quarter had a seasonal index of .80. Which of the
following statements correctly interprets this figure? - ANS-The sales average is 20%
below the trend estimate
, A positive forecast error indicates that the forecasting method _____ the dependent
variable. - ANS-underestimated
To model a time series with a seasonal pattern, we treat the season as a(n): -
ANS-categorical variable
Which of the following exponential smoothing constant values puts the same weight on
the most recent time series value as does a 5-period moving average? - ANS-alpha = .2
What forecasting method involves selecting a different weight for the most recent k data
values in the time series and then computing a weighted average of the values? -
ANS-Weighted moving average method
The following linear trend expression was estimated using a time series with 9 years as
the independent variable and annual profit as the response variable (in millions).
Tt = 29.2 + 3.8tThe value 3.8 represents the: - ANS-amount that the profit is expected to
increase by each year, in millions of dollars, on average
When using a weighted moving average, if we believe that the recent past is a better
predictor of the future than the distant past, we should: - ANS-give larger weights to
recent observations
What kind of forecasting method is based on the assumption that the variable we are
forecasting has a cause-effect relationship with one or more other variables? -
ANS-Casual forecasting method
A time series method that is used to separate or decompose a time series into
seasonal, trend, and irregular components is called: - ANS-time series decomposition
Three of the following forecasting methods are appropriate for a time series with a
horizontal pattern. Which one is not appropriate for a time series with a horizontal
pattern? - ANS-Linear trend regression
The time series model that is appropriate in situations where the seasonal fluctuations
do not depend upon the level of the time series is: - ANS-an additive model
A time series from which the effect of season has been removed by dividing each
original time series observation by the corresponding seasonal index is called a: -
ANS-deseasonalized time series
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