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Summary TUTORIAL 4A MEMO

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Master STK120 with Confidence! Stressed about acing your STK120 exams and tests? We've got the ultimate study pack to boost your understanding and exam performance. Our comprehensive collection of past STK120 tutorial papers and detailed memos provides valuable insights into exam format, key c...

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  • June 25, 2024
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TUT 4 A on Ch 17 MEMO


Questions 1

The given dataset represents sales at a local supermarket recorded over the past 12 months.

Period Sales
January 11
February 13
March 9
April 8
May 16
June 15
July 8
August 10
September 15
October 8
November 10
December 12


a. Do a time series plot to determine the pattern of the data

18
16
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12
10
8
6
4
2
0




b. Complete the table below:

Period sales 3-month Forecast 𝑺𝑺𝑺𝑺𝑺𝑺 5-month Forecast 𝑺𝑺𝑺𝑺𝑺𝑺
MA Error MA Error
forecast forecast
January 11
February 13
March 9
April 8 11 -3 9
May 16 10 6 36
June 15 11 4 16 11.4 3.6 12.96
July 8 13 -5 25 12.2 -4.2 17.64
August 10 13 -3 9 11.2 -1.2 1.44
September 15 11 4 16 11.4 3.6 12.96
October 8 11 -3 9 12.8 -4.8 23.04
November 10 11 -1 1 11.2 -1.2 1.44
December 12 11 1 1 10.2 1.8 3.24
122 72.72

c. The MSE (3-month MA forecast) is: MSE=122/9=13.5556
d. The MSE (5month MA) is: MSE=72.72/7=10.3886

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