Summary
Samenvatting Secret affairs HC week 1 t/m 3/ Summary Secret Affairs Lecture 1 t/m 3
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Summary of the lectures week 1 to 3. Summarry of the lectures week 1 t/m 3. This file is not a substitute for the lectures.
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Leiden Universiteit SV Secret AffairsDeze samenvatting is waarschijnlijk niet compleet en er zullen spellingfouten in staan door
haast/desinteresse.
Dit is een samenvatting van de hoorcolleges week 1 tm 3.
Week 1 SV HC
Sigint
Sigint is the short word for signal intelligence. It is everything you can intercept so: email,
internet, telephone but also interception on non-cable telecommunication.
Imint/geoint
Short word for imagery intelligence or geographical intelligence. Mostly about satellite
images or pictures taken from air and space like pictures from ships or commercial planes.
This is a relatively new form of intelligence. The most known examples of IMINT or
GEOINT are the U-2 of SR-71 which are espionage planes.
Humint / Osint
Humint is human intelligence so intelligence from human sources like agents, DA or RIP.
But also legal travellers like business people, priests or sailors etc. Scientists are the worst
spies as they talk way to much (this is scientifically proven)
Intel after 9/11
Before 9/11 intel was not a hot topic or populair topic but after 9/11 it was a really hot topic.
Intel mainly focuses on:
a. Inter - national terrorism
b. organized crime;
c. narcotics - production, trade, distribution;
d. money laundering;
e. non-proliferation of WMD;
f. Weapon trade;
g. Illegal migration and human trafficking;
h. Intelligence cooperation in peacekeeping en peace enforcement operations,
etc;
Open-ended war
Now that terrorism is a big threat in the world we need to learn to live with intelligence as
intelligence is seen as the first line of defence. When we look at the number of casualties of
terrorism in the Netherlands we see 2 deadly victims in the span of 10 years. Then why is
there still so much buzz about terrorism?
Terrorism invokes fear among society and thus, a lot of attention is given to it.
Developments
IN the past there was no attention for intelligences- and security agencies, so it’s relatively
new. Kijk even in slides als je iets moet toevoegen
Problems
There are a bit of problems when we look at intelligence
, Leiden Universiteit SV Secret Affairs
1. Lack of knowledge
Often when a terrorist attack happens a politician may say: close this mosque. While
intelligence would say: we no longer have a place to monitor now.
Conspiracy theory
In conspiracy theory, the absence of prove is prove. While in intelligence this is the complete
opposite
misconceptions on intelligence
Intelligence is not like james bond. Only a small percentage of employees actually do covert
actions. Employees have special competences regarding information gathering but not the
same like the police of judiciary.
There are no
- guns
- prosecution
For example; If you want to have information and you are someone from the AIVD, you may
ring someone’s door but if they slam the door in your face, then that will be it.
Employees are no thieves or intruders in embassies, so they don’t open saves.
The relationship between the employee and informer, is often the same as relationship
between journalist and confidential source.
Characteristics on intelligence
Intelligence focuses on the gathering of information that is hard to obtain.
Denial and deception: Zie slide
Why study intelligence?
Intelligence is of the utmost of importance. It is hard to study though, as a lot of information
is shielded of. So untill 1980 it was very very difficult. Lots of monitoring and censoring.
Levels of analysis in intelligence
- study relationship between agencies and policymakers
- explaining successes and failures
- political function of intelligence as way of control by the state
Why is intelligence interesting?
It is news before it is news. It’s facts behind the news. We mostly look for the drivers for
people.
Definition of intelligence
SEE SLIDE OF INTELLIGENCE FAILURES HC 2
Four activities in intelligence
- information gathering
- analysis and prognoses
- counter-intelligence
- covert action
- planning of operations to eliminate the high ranking members of the mCP
, Leiden Universiteit SV Secret Affairs
Why do intelligence agencies exist
To avoid strategic and tactical suprises. It’s a long term expertise and it supports policy
making.
Example: let’s say you have a weapons treaty, they will advise on what to do what is wise
(intelligence people)
what’s an analysis
The process of transformation gathering info into an intelligence product that can be used by
the consumer etc.
threatanalysis
1. geographical focus
2. specific actors
3. kinds of information
Open source intelligence
While this is very nice, it is very hard to get your hands on intelligence like SIGINT is very
secretive.
Intelligence cycle
There are problems with this cycle as it is not as accurate as in example the arthur Hulnick
intelligence matrix.
Policy counter terrorism
In this policy there are three layers:
1. hard core terrorists
2. facilitators: give layer one safe houses etc.
3. supporters
The policy in the NL is to focus on the hard core (layer one). They do not go after layer 2 or
three but rather try to win them back as these layers are easier to infiltrate and win them
back.
The hard core though is lost. But to make sure that layer 2 and 3 get in to the hard core we
try to win them back as we do not want a successive generation of the terrorist group.
In the 70’s we also prosecuted layer 2 and 3 which led to war and thus a successive
generation.
- aim: no 2nd 3rd generation: info position + neutralize, they are even more tough.
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