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micro economische fundamenten van de macro economi
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Universiteit Gent (UGent)
Economische Wetenschappen
Monetaire economie
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,INHOUDSTAFEL
HOOFDSTUK 1 – INLEIDING.......................................................................................................................6
Wat is monetaire economie?................................................................................................................................................................6
Aanpak van cursus................................................................................................................................................................................6
Stylized facts.........................................................................................................................................................................................8
Stand van het monetair beleid.........................................................................................................................................................8
Geldhoeveelheid.............................................................................................................................................................................10
Economische activiteit....................................................................................................................................................................10
Inflatie.............................................................................................................................................................................................11
Waar en wanneer liep het fout?.........................................................................................................................................................14
Inflatievoorspellingen.....................................................................................................................................................................15
HOOFDSTUK 2 – Basis IS-LM-AD model...................................................................................................17
IS-curve................................................................................................................................................................................................17
LM-curve.............................................................................................................................................................................................19
AD-curve..............................................................................................................................................................................................21
Monetair beleid en daling natuurlijke reële rente..............................................................................................................................22
Observatie en definitie...................................................................................................................................................................22
Oorzaken van de daling..................................................................................................................................................................22
Gevolgen voor monetair beleid......................................................................................................................................................24
Seculiere stagnatie..........................................................................................................................................................................24
Spaar-paradox (Paradox of Thrift)..................................................................................................................................................24
Liquiditeitsval..................................................................................................................................................................................24
HOOFDSTUK 3 – KLASSIEKE DICHOTOMIE...............................................................................................25
Aanbodzijde van economie: flexibele prijzen......................................................................................................................................25
Kwantiteitstheorie en vraag naar geld...............................................................................................................................................25
Monetair beleid en de Klassieke dichotomie......................................................................................................................................26
Monetair beleid en inflatie..................................................................................................................................................................26
Macro-economische stabilisatie.........................................................................................................................................................27
Budgettair beleid – volledige crowding out....................................................................................................................................27
Aanbodschokken als bron conjunctuurschommelingen................................................................................................................27
Goudstandaard als monetair beleidsregime..................................................................................................................................28
Evaluatie.............................................................................................................................................................................................29
HOOFDSTUK 4 – NEO-KLASSIEKE SYNTHESE............................................................................................31
Inleiding tot de Neo-klassieke synthese..............................................................................................................................................31
Rigide lonen, adaptieve verwachtingen en de AS-curve.....................................................................................................................31
Rentegevoeligheid van geldvraag......................................................................................................................................................31
Reële effecten en transmissie van monetair beleid............................................................................................................................32
Dynamische effecten expansief monetair beleid...........................................................................................................................32
Wat bepaalt de grootte van de impact?.........................................................................................................................................32
Traditionele kanalen van monetaire transmissie...........................................................................................................................32
Kostenkanaal...................................................................................................................................................................................32
,Great Depression revisited..................................................................................................................................................................32
Philipscurve: relatie tussen inflatie en werkloosheid..........................................................................................................................33
Bronnen van inflatie............................................................................................................................................................................35
Geldgroei en inflatie.......................................................................................................................................................................35
Cost-push inflatie............................................................................................................................................................................36
Demand-pull inflatie.......................................................................................................................................................................37
Adaptieve verwachtingen...............................................................................................................................................................37
Disinflatoir beleid............................................................................................................................................................................38
Macro-economische stabilisatie.........................................................................................................................................................39
Doelstellingen van monetair beleid................................................................................................................................................39
Monetair versus budgettair beleid.................................................................................................................................................39
Rules versus discretion – Part I.......................................................................................................................................................40
Monetary targeting als monetaire beleidsstrategie.......................................................................................................................40
Evaluatie.............................................................................................................................................................................................41
HOOFDSTUK 5 – RATIONELE VERWACHTINGEN.......................................................................................43
Rationele verwachtingen en de surprise AS-curve..............................................................................................................................43
Rationele verwachtingen................................................................................................................................................................43
Imperfecte informatie....................................................................................................................................................................43
Lucas-surprise geaggregeerde aanbodcurve..................................................................................................................................43
Monetair beleid...................................................................................................................................................................................45
Geanticipeerd versus ongeanticipeerd monetair beleid................................................................................................................45
Disinflatoir beleid............................................................................................................................................................................46
Great inflation revisited..................................................................................................................................................................46
Empirische relevantie.....................................................................................................................................................................47
Macro-economische stabilisatie.........................................................................................................................................................48
Policy-ineffectiveness proposition (PIP).........................................................................................................................................48
Conjunctuurschommelingen..........................................................................................................................................................48
Beter geïnformeerde centrale bank:..............................................................................................................................................49
Systematisch monetair beleid bij rigide prijzen.............................................................................................................................49
Rules versus discretion - Part II.......................................................................................................................................................51
Rationele verwachtingen en de Lucas kritiek......................................................................................................................................52
Evaluatie.............................................................................................................................................................................................54
HOOFDSTUK 6 – MACRO-ECONOMIE OP BASIS VAN MICRO-ECONOMISCHE FUNDAMENTEN.................55
DSGE-modellen...................................................................................................................................................................................55
Real Business Cycle onderzoeksprogramma..................................................................................................................................55
Nieuw Neoklassieke synthese........................................................................................................................................................57
Forward-looking IS curve................................................................................................................................................................58
Nieuwe Philipscurve.......................................................................................................................................................................58
Monetair beleid...................................................................................................................................................................................60
Conventioneel monetair beleid......................................................................................................................................................60
Forward guidance...........................................................................................................................................................................60
Quantitative easing (QE).................................................................................................................................................................62
, Macro-economische stabilisatie.........................................................................................................................................................63
Inflation forecast targeting.............................................................................................................................................................63
Optimaal monetair beleid bij schokken..........................................................................................................................................63
Taylor-rule.......................................................................................................................................................................................66
Great Moderation...........................................................................................................................................................................66
Evaluatie.............................................................................................................................................................................................68
HOOFDSTUK 7 – FINANCIËLE FRICTIES, HETEROGENE AGENTEN EN DE ZLB..............................................70
Inleiding..............................................................................................................................................................................................70
Financiële fricties................................................................................................................................................................................70
Money view versus credit view......................................................................................................................................................70
Financiële accelerator.....................................................................................................................................................................71
Banken en monetair beleid............................................................................................................................................................73
Heterogene agenten...........................................................................................................................................................................75
Zero lower bound van rentevoeten in DSGE-model............................................................................................................................76
Great Recession..................................................................................................................................................................................78
Coronacrisis.........................................................................................................................................................................................79
Energiecrisis........................................................................................................................................................................................79
HOOFDSTUK 8 – AANBOD VAN GELD EN INSTRUMENTEN VAN MONETAIR BELEID.................................81
Inleiding..............................................................................................................................................................................................81
De centrale bank en de geldbasis.......................................................................................................................................................81
Geldcreatie door de financiële sector.................................................................................................................................................83
Krediet en depositocreatie.............................................................................................................................................................83
Geldbasismultiplicator....................................................................................................................................................................83
Geldhoeveelheid en krediet: de kip of het ei?...............................................................................................................................87
Lender of last resort en financiële stabiliteit..................................................................................................................................87
Macroprudentieel toezicht en financiële stabiliteit.......................................................................................................................88
De keuze van het monetaire beleidsinstrument.................................................................................................................................89
Instrumenten van Europese Centrale Bank........................................................................................................................................91
Open markttransacties...................................................................................................................................................................91
Openmarkttransacties....................................................................................................................................................................94
Reserveverplichtingen....................................................................................................................................................................95
HOOFDSTUK 9 – THEORIE VAN OPTIMALE MUNTZONES EN DE EURO.....................................................97
Vormen van muntzones......................................................................................................................................................................97
Baten van een muntzone....................................................................................................................................................................97
Kosten van muntzone.........................................................................................................................................................................99
Criteria voor muntzone – Deel I........................................................................................................................................................101
Criteria van Maastricht om toe te treden tot de euro (Maastrichtnormen)................................................................................102
Endogeniteit van optimale muntzone...............................................................................................................................................103
Voorlopers van euro..........................................................................................................................................................................104
Goudstandaard.............................................................................................................................................................................104
Bretton-Woods systeem (1945-1973)..........................................................................................................................................104
Europees Monetair Stelsel (EMS) (1979-1998)............................................................................................................................104
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