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QMB 3250 EXAM 3 MODULES (17-24) QUESTIONS & ANSWERS SCORED A+
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QMB 3250 EXAM 3 MODULES (17-24) QUESTIONS & ANSWERS SCORED A+
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QMB 3250 EXAM 3MODULES (17-24)
QUESTIONS &
ANSWERS SCORED A+
QMB 3250
Evatee 8/14/24 QMB 3250
,QMB 3250 EXAM 3 MODULES (17-24)
QUESTIONS & ANSWERS SCORED A+
If there is no direction in the time series trend, this is called... Answer -
Stationary to the mean.
Seasonal Component (time series) Answer - Fluctuation occurs at roughly the
same time each year (or day of the week or part of the month).
The time between two peaks is called... Answer - Period
Components of a Time Series Answer - 1. Trend
2. Seasonal
3. Long Term Cycles
4. Irregular Components
Types of smoothing methods Answer - 1. Simple Moving Average
2. Single Exponential Smoothing Average (SES)
Simple Moving Average Answer - - this method creates a new time series from
the original data by averaging adjacent values.
- the number of values that are averaged is called the length (L).
- the purpose is that it helps illuminate how the data is varying over time.
Disadvantages of simple moving average Answer - -The moving average values
can be affected by outliers (sharp peaks or falls).
,- Doesn't work well when there are strong seasonal, trend or cyclical
components.
Weighted Moving Averages Answer - A more sophisticated type of moving
averages gives different weights to the values being averaged. Values that are
further away get less weight.
Types of weighted moving averages Answer - 1. simple exponential smoothing
2. auto regressive moving averages
Simple Exponential Smoothing Answer - values that are closest to the
estimated value get the most weight in the moving average and values that are
further away get less.
* doesn't usually work well when seasonal components are present.s
Alpha for Weighted Exponential Smoothing Answer - - Alpha is close to 0.5, the
most recent value and historic values are weighed the same .
- Alpha is close to 1, the most recent value is given more weight. this is used if
you want the series to react more quickly to irregular components.
- Alpha is close to 0, the most recent value is given less weight than historic
valleys. you want to use this if you want the series to react more slowly,
creating a more stable series.
Data collected overtime at regular intervals, we have a... Answer - time series
(daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly).
If there is no direction on the trend (data), it is called... Answer - stationary to
the mean.
, Seasonal components Answer - Fluctuation occurs that roughly the same time
each year (or day of the week or part of the month).
Fluctuation for seasonal components is of the same magnitude and in the same
direction? Answer - true
Long-term cycles Answer - you may also see the business cycle if you have long
enough period of data to see this trend
Irregular component Answer - - sometimes there's variation that is not
explained.
- just like residuals, you should look at these values for anything unusual.
There are two different types of modeling Time series... Answer - 1. smoothing
methods
2. regression methods
Smoothing methods Answer - - smooth out a regularities..
- there are no assumptions that must be made about the trend or seasonal
component.
- a disadvantage is that predictions are limited - they can only predict in the
very short term.
- these are usually only used for one period beyond the data recorded.
Regression methods Answer - - model the behavior of the trend and cycle using
methods that we learned in regression.
- the advantage is that they can be used to predict further into time, although
we should still be cautious about extrapolating too far from the data.
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