Summary Democracies, Autocracies and Transitions Midterm Lectures (1-6)
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Democracies, Autocracies and Transitions
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Universiteit Van Amsterdam (UvA)
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Determinants of Democratization
This is a summary of all the lectures of the first part of the course Democracies, Autocracies and Transitions (DAT) at the Univerisity of Amsterdam. This course is part of the political science bachelor.
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Democracies, autocracies and transitions Notes Midterm Exam
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Lecture 1: Introduction
Cross-national variance
variance=difference between units
If the variance is high it means that some of the countries are above and some are below the
mean level of democracy. Our job as social scientists is to explain these variances.
From coups to the ballot box
In the Cold War period democracy broke down through coup d’états, through violence.
Nowadays coups are quite rare. We see democratic recession through the repression of free
press.
Also: pure forms of autocracy are quite rare, they have given way for a more hybrid mix
‘We tend to think of democracies dying at the hands of men with guns. During the Cold War,
coups d’état accounted for nearly three out of every four democratic break-downs, and more
recently, military coups toppled Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi in 2013 and Thai Prime
Minister Yingluck Shinawatra in 2014. In these cases democracy dissolved in spectacular
fashion, through military power and coercion.
Blatant dictatorship - in the form of fascism, communism or military rule- has disappeared
across much of the world. Military coups and other violent seizures of power are rare
But there is another way to break a democracy. It is less dramatic but equally destructive
Democratic backsliding today begin at the ballot box.’
Longitudinal variance
Hungry part of Soviet sphere of influence after WWII. After fall of SU Hungary dramatic jump
towards democracy
verschil tussen sudden breakdown en incremental breakdown
many of the backsliding now through legal means, bv passing censorship laws through
legislators
1
,Slowly but surely erosion of democracy rather than a sudden breakdown
Longitudinal variance
The countries below the line are backsliding, 2007 is higher than 2017. It seems that those
are one of the biggest democracies of the world. The backsliding is occuring in some of the
biggest democracies: India, Brasil.
In general most of the countries are pretty close to where they were then years ago. So it is
not easy for a country to suddenly change; it is a slow process.
The ballot box to protests
Within democracies people protest when they are unhappy with government policies. So it is
not about regime change.
Protests in Lebanon have the potential to influence the regime in different way than for
example boerenprotest.
Protests in autocracies
International influence on regime types: In Iran the English did not want to have a Republic
so they made sure that a strong leader was put in place.
Part of how the Iranian Islamic Republic is run is through elections.
The protests in 2009 did not lead to regime change in Iran
Hong Kong
colonial history
British turned them over to China, ja nee China geen own laws until 2047
The main reason these protests have started is because of a bill that allowed prisoners to be
extradited to China. A lot of people thought that that would accelerate the process. The
government decided no to fo through with this bill but the protests still continue. It started of
about one bill, but now the people have more demands.
2
,Lecture 2: What is autocracy?
Definitions
Dictatorship: a regime in which the ruler is not chosen through elections (Gandhi)
ra
● Also called authoritarian o utocratic regimes
● Regime= a set of institutions that regulate governance (of a state)
● ‘‘Residual’’ category= all regimes that are not democratic
Autocracies are often considered as a residual category: they are not related by scholars as
having their own characteristics. If the rulers are not elected, then it must be an autocracy.
Concept
Institutions in autocracies are authoritarian: try to create a stable basis for domination (Slater
2003). Rather than allowing liberty institutions they try to dominate/
The ruler has two competing groups that they have to dominate:
● civil society
● potential rivals within the state itself
Tools for domination:
● co-optation (loyalty)
● violence (repression)
The threat of violence is often enough to get people to comply with what you want to do
Three types of dictatorships
● Monarchs
○ rely on kin networks
● Military rulers
○ rely on military organisation
must come from the established military (so no rebels)
● Civilians
○ rely on parties
for example: Communist Party
Why these types?
● They face different threats
There are different types of challenges in each groups
● They organise institutional rule differently
● Observable
3
,Measuring concepts
Operationalisation of Ghandi’s types
● Monarch if: ‘bears the title of king or emir and is the successor or predecessor of
rulers from the same family’
● Military ruler if: ‘he is or was a member of the institutionalised military prior to taking
power’
● Civilian if: ‘do not qualify as either monarchs or military rulers by these two rules’
Coding Ghandi’s types
● 1. Przeworksi et al’s definition
○ chief executive must be elected
○ legislature must be elected
○ must be >1 political parties
○ an alternation in power must have happened
● 2. Effective head of government identified
○ General-secretaries of communist party
○ King or presidents in non-communist dictatorships
○ Another person or military if nominal person not in charge
○ collective leadership excluded
● 3. Type of dictator
Alternative measures
Focus on mode of transition (Hadenius et al. 2013)
● Hereditary succession
● Military force or its threat
● Popular election
popular election net als in Islamic Republic Iran
4
,North Korea
When we are talking in general about autocracies it remains abstract. Once we get to a
concrete case we can understand the concepts better.
● Probably most totalitarian today
● Kim Il Sung, took over in 1948
● Population number: +/- 25 million
● Juche 108
Juche is the year that North Korea is in. It has been 108 years since Kim Il Sung was born
Clocks North Korea are 1,5 hours ahead to retrieve time taken by the Japanese during
colonial period
Totalitarianism
‘Terror becomes total when it becomes independent of all opposition; it rules supreme when
nobody any longer stands in its way. If lawfulness is the essence of non-tyrannical
government and lawlessness is the essence of tyranny, then terror is the essence of
totalitarian domination’
-Hannah Arendt
What form of autocracy is North Korea?
● The North Korean regime is highly personalised
It is about the extent to which the family (Kim) subdued the communist party. The party and
the military is a vehicle for them to do what they want. One family has a lot of authority over
the party
These are three ways to tell whether a regime is personalist or not.
It is very strange for a communist regime to be so personalist.
● What is unique about the regime?
○ Personalisation exists with a political party (Korean Worker’s Party)
○ Hereditary, like monarchies
Why is Korea not categorised as a monarchy? Because the KWP still exists and is an
important source of authority within the regime. Kim Il sung didn't dismantle the party he just
became chairperson of it.
○ Longest-lasting autocracy today
5
,North Korea is longest standing autocracy that is still in existence today, which is also
unusual for personalist regimes, because they are usually unstable.
Duration of autocratic regimes
The plurality of autocratic regimes are pretty short lived. Personalist regimes on average less
likely to be durable. North Korea is quite an outlier.
Why do types matter?
● Institutional design
○ Ruling coalition
‘inner sanctum’
‘seizure group’ =group of people who helped make the regime. They are often
the biggest threats to overrule ruler and form the biggest challenge
According to Gandhi institutional designs of regimes should differ depending on what kind of
dictator they have
● How the regime manages (1) co-optation and (2) repression, over civil society and
possible rivals
If regimes are different we should expect how they co-opt to be different
○ Legislatures
○ Political parties
In communist regimes no other political parties are allowed but in other dictatorships other
parties are allowed to exist.
○ Security forces
A monarch will have different kind of challenge als t gaat om security dan military ruler
● Transitions
Monarchs more likely to turn over to new monarchy, changing the line
military more likely than other autocracies to turn over to democratic regimes. Civilian
autocracies are often toppled in coups.
The most stable category is for the regime to be the same kind of regime over time.
● Social credit system in China
If mistakes are made, there is no due process → no law. People are not protected by law if
technology fails
● Social media tax in Uganda
access to social media is a very easy thing for a government to do compared to the Chinese
social credit.
6
, Lecture 3: What is democracy?
What’s in a name
There are a lot of countries that are ‘Democratic by name’. For example: Democratic
People’s Republic of Korea. Only two countries that call themselves a democracy come
close to the freedom house ranking (Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste & Democratic
Republic of São Tomé and Principe).
Democracy itself as a label is popular. We live in a time frame where even the most vicious
autocrats want to make use of that label. The way they actually fill in what democracy means
differs.
What do people associate with ‘democracy’
Survey: what comes to mind when you hear democracy?
The most common associations that people have have to do with ideals (freedom, equality).
It is quite uncommon for people to think about actual specific rights such as voting.
Democracy as mob rule
“Democracy used to be a bad word. Everybody who was anybody knew that democracy, in
its original sense of rule by the people or government in accordance with the will of the bulk
of the people, would be a bad thing—fatal to individual freedom and to all graces of civilized
living.
That was the position taken by pretty nearly all men of intelligence from the earliest historical
times down to about a hundred years ago.
Then, within fifty years, democracy became a good thing.”
- C.B. Macpherson (1966)
For the longest period of time demcy was a bad word. For Plato and Aristotle for example
democracy had an incredibly low regard. When was this switch? That even the intellectuals
in society started to be less skeptical about democracy?
Enlightenment thinkers were democrats on paper but actually only wanted voting rights for
property-owning white men. So they have a bit of a tarnished history with the concept of
democracy.
Ancient Greece
Plato’s Ship of State
The ship owner is a clumsy dumb big individual who is just there. He is an idiot. The others
are the sailors. What happens is that once the ship sets course the sailors start to give the
ship owner alcohol to get him drunk. At the same time they take over the ship and it sheer
luck that they don't ram the ship into the cliffs. But at the same time the captain is on board.
He is the only one who knows something about the stars and navigation. But nobody really
listens to him.
Ship owner→ people
7
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