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Determining population growth
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Calculate the birth rate (b):Formula for per capita rate of increase is r= b - m.
𝑚 33
Birth rate formula is b = 𝑁 = 546 = 0.060.
Birth rate (b) of this population is 0.060.
In the same year, the biologists counted 28 black bear deaths. Calculate the death rate for this
population.
Formula for per capita rate of increase is r = b-m.
𝑏 28
Death rate formula is m = 𝑁 = 546 = 0.051
Death rate (m) of this population is 0.051.
What is the per capita rate of increase for this black bear population?
Formula for per capita rate of increase is r = b - m.
r = 0.060 - 0.051 = 0.009
Per capita rate of increase (r) is 0.009.
What would you estimate the change in black bear population size would be for the following
year?
N = total individuals = Current population - number of deaths + number of births
N = 546 - 28 + 33 = 518 + 33 = 551
∆𝑁
Formula to estimate the change in population size is ∆𝑡 = rN
where ∆𝑁 is unknown, N = 551, ∆𝑡 = time interval of 1 year and r = per capita rate of increase of
0.009
∆𝑁 = ∆𝑡 (𝑟) (𝑁) = 1 (0.009) (551) = 4.959.
Estimated change in population would be 5 bears, this population is increasing in size.
Determine the number of births and deaths you would expect the following year. The formula to
calculate expected number of births is B = b x N where B is the expected number of births, b is
per capita birth rate and N is the number of individuals in the population
B is unknown
b is 0.060
N is 551
B = 0.060 x 551 = 33.06
Therefore the expected number of births for this population would be 33 bears.
The formula to calculate expected number of deaths is B = b x N where B is the expected
number of deaths, b is per capita death rate and N is the number of individuals in the population
B is unknown
b is 0.051
N is 551
B = 0.051 x 551 = 28.101
Therefore the expected number of births for this population would be 28 bears.
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