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BMKB Forecasting samenvatting tentamen periode 5 $3.21
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Summary

BMKB Forecasting samenvatting tentamen periode 5
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  • Course
  • Forecasting
  • Institution
  • Fontys Hogeschool (Fontys)

Samenvatting over de tentamenstof Forecasting van periode 5 van de opleiding Bedrijfsmanagement MKB op Fontys Eindhoven.

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Document information

  • January 16, 2020
  • 4
  • 2019/2020
  • Summary

Subjects

  • bmkb
  • bedrijfsmanagement
  • periode 5
  • tentamen
  • fontys
  • forecasting
  • samenvatting

Written for

  • Fontys Hogeschool (Fontys)
  • Bedrijfskundig Management
  • Forecasting
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Content preview

Forecasting periode 1
Les 1: Tijdsreeksen (lineaire regressie)
Voorspellen van toekomst op basis van het verleden door middel van tijdsreeksen (lineaire regressie)

Componenten van tijdsreeks:

 Trend (T): gelijkblijvend, dalend, stijgend, exponentieel
 Conjunctuurcomponent (C): economische cyclus (lange termijn)
 Seizoencomponent (S): seizoenen (zonnebrillen, ski’s), dagpatroon (watergebruik
huishoudens)
 Toevallige component (E): onregelmatige veranderingen  verklaarbaar (verkoop van
paraplu’s) of onverklaarbaar

Doel van tijdsreeks:

 Beeld vormen van een systematisch patroon in reeks gegevens uit het verleden
Bv: door CBS bepalen trend- en seizoenpatroon in werkloosheidcijfers

 Op basis van gegevens uit het verleden korte-termijnvoorspellingen doen voor de
toekomst
Bv: Voorspellen van de vraag naar producten om de productie daarmee aan te sturen


Trendlijn berekenen d.m.v. lineaire regressie:

! Excel doet dit automatisch

 Trendlijn: Y = a + bx

 Methode 1:
MAD = Mean Absolute Deviation = gemiddelde absolute afwijking

 Methode 2: (vaker gebruikt)
MSE = Mean Square Error = gemiddelde kwadratische afwijking

 a & b berekenen:




Ȳ = gemiddelde van alle Y-waarden
X̄ = gemiddelde van alle X-waarden = gemiddelde van alle X-waarden

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