Causes and Consequences of Environmental Change (AM_1049)
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Week 1
Readings lecture 1 – Introduction
https://www.ted.com/talks/johan_rockstrom_10_years_to_transform_the_future_of_humanity_or_dest
abilize_the_planet?subtitle=en
“10 years to transform the future of humanity -- or destabilize the planet”
• Tipping points bring three threats:
o Sea level rise
o If carbon stores like permafrost and forests flip to belching carbon, this makes the job
of stabilizing temperature much harder
o All of these systems are linked as domino
Reading 1: Earth Beyond six of nine planetary boundaries.
Nine planetary boundaries: Climate change, Change in biosphere integrity (biodiversity loss and
species extinction), Stratospheric ozone depletion, Ocean acidification, Biogeochemical flows
(phosphorus and nitrogen cycles), Land-system change (for example deforestation), Freshwater use,
Atmospheric aerosol loading (microscopic particles in the atmosphere that affect climate and living
organisms), Introduction of novel entities
Holocene = before human activity
Anthropocene = after human activity (the total human presence throughout the Earth system including
our culture, technology, built environment, and associated activities.)
Geosphere = energy flow and nonliving materials in Earth and atmosphere
Biosphere = all living organisms/ecosystems
The study reveals that six out of these nine boundaries have been breached. These include:
• Climate Change: The planet has already exceeded safe levels of CO₂ concentrations and global
temperature rise.
• Biosphere Integrity: The extinction rate and loss of biodiversity are far beyond safe limits.
• Land-System Change: Deforestation and other land-use changes have surpassed safe
thresholds.
• Biogeochemical Flows: Excessive nitrogen and phosphorus flows due to fertilizer use have
disrupted ecosystems.
• Freshwater Use: Overuse of freshwater resources is stressing ecosystems.
• Novel Entities: Pollution from chemicals and other new materials has reached dangerous
levels.
This will require the development of Earth system models that more completely capture geosphere,
biosphere, and anthroposphere interactions than are currently possible.
Reading 2: Six Transformations to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals
Six SDG Transformations as modular building blocks of SDG achievement: (1) education, gender and
inequality; (2) health, well-being and demography; (3) energy decarbonization and sustainable
industry; (4) sustainable food, land, water and oceans; (5) sustainable cities and communities; and (6)
digital revolution for sustainable development.
The Transformations must be: (1) mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive; (2) systems-based;
(3) aligned with government organization; (4) easily communicable; (5) few in number. Each SDG
Transformation describes a major change in societal structure (economic, political, technological, and
social) to achieve long-term sustainable development.
1
,The implementation of the six SDG Transformations can be achieved through several strategic
approaches:
• Policy Design and Coordination: Governments need to design and implement key
interventions that align with each Transformation. This requires strengthening coordination
mechanisms across various ministries to ensure that policies are integrated and mutually
reinforcing.
• Stakeholder Engagement: Engaging a diverse range of stakeholders, including businesses,
civil society, and local communities, is crucial. Each Transformation should involve specific
subsets of these groups to facilitate targeted problem-solving and mobilize resources
effectively.
• Investment in Infrastructure and Technology: Significant investments are needed in
infrastructure, technology, and innovation to support the goals of each transformation. This
includes funding for sustainable energy systems, education initiatives, and health services.
• Monitoring and Evaluation: Establishing robust monitoring and evaluation frameworks is
essential to track progress and assess the effectiveness of interventions. This includes
collecting data and using indicators that reflect the outcomes of each Transformation.
• Adaptation to Local Contexts: The Transformations must be adapted to the specific contexts of
different countries, considering their levels of development, natural resource bases, and
governance structures.
• Action Agenda for Science: The scientific community plays a vital role in providing the
knowledge required for designing, implementing, and monitoring the SDG Transformations.
This includes research on best practices, innovative solutions, and the impacts of various
interventions.
• Public Awareness and Education: Raising awareness about the SDGs and the importance of
each Transformation can foster public support and participation. Educational campaigns can
help inform citizens about their roles in achieving sustainable development.
2
,Lecture 1- Introduction
A new era has started: the Anthropocene
1. Holocene
2. Anthropocene = The current geological age, viewed as the period during which human activity
has been the dominant influence on climate and the environment.
Global living planet index = the average change in relative abundance of different populations across
selected species
Definition of indicators for safe conditions for the Earth system:
Examples of changing earth:
▪ Disturbances of the nitrogen and phosphorous cycles
▪ Land use change
▪ Use of water, chemical pollutions
• No single factor behind the crises
3
, Doughnut framework: combining ecological and social dimensions
Two concentric radar charts :
• 9 ecological dimensions
• 12 social dimensions
The goal of the Doughnut is to meet the needs of
all within the means of living planet.
Together encompasses human wellbeing
• This course focuses more on the planetary
boundaries
Often within sustainability tragedy of the commons:
• Not everyone has access to some of the
solutions
• Possibility of running out
For whom are the solutions?
• “Right for development”
o = Human right by virtue of which every human person and all peoples are entitled to
participate in, contribute to, and enjoy economic, social, cultural and political
development, in which all human rights and fundamental freedoms can be fully
realized.
• “Polluters-pay” principles
➢ Take from this:
Transformations have an impact
on multiple SDG’s
4
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