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Table of contents
Table of contents ..................................................................................................................................... 1
W1: Introduction to climate change ........................................................................................................ 3
Current situation ................................................................................................................................. 3
Are we the cause? ........................................................................................................................... 3
Physical mechanisms, role of humans ............................................................................................. 3
Paris agreement................................................................................................................................. 10
W2: science of climate change .............................................................................................................. 14
Impacts of climate change................................................................................................................. 14
Climate tipping points ................................................................................................................... 14
Carbon cycle .................................................................................................................................. 19
Forcing agents (11) ........................................................................................................................ 22
Climate mitigation ............................................................................................................................. 25
W3: integrated assessment models ...................................................................................................... 27
Carbon budgets: what can be emitted to achieve the goals? ........................................................... 28
So what assumptions are made?................................................................................................... 29
And what factors/variables influence the size of the budget? ...................................................... 30
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) .......................................................................................................... 31
What is it? ...................................................................................................................................... 31
Why do we need it? ....................................................................................................................... 34
What can it contribute to limit climate change? ........................................................................... 35
What are risks of CDR? .................................................................................................................. 36
Conclusion on CDR ........................................................................................................................ 36
IAMs................................................................................................................................................... 36
W4: Climate negotiations for real ......................................................................................................... 39
Paris agreement................................................................................................................................. 39
Concerns and objective of the agreement, What was agreed, Nationally Determined
Contributions + style of writing ..................................................................................................... 39
Emissions gap report ......................................................................................................................... 40
Emissions reduction pledges by major countries and globally...................................................... 40
,Climate change: science & policy NWI-FMT034-2024
Estimated impact on global GHG emissions in 2030 of the latest NDCs ....................................... 40
What is the status of net-zero emission pledges by G20 members and are current policies and
NDC target aligned with the long-term pledges? .......................................................................... 41
Importance of near-term targets................................................................................................... 41
Global stock take ............................................................................................................................... 41
Context of global stocktake and relation to Paris agreement ....................................................... 41
Purpose of global stocktake........................................................................................................... 42
Considerations of other environmental and social aspects when developing and implementing
climate action ................................................................................................................................ 42
Style: specific wording applied around reducing emissions .......................................................... 42
International climate negotiations – Jori Keijsper ............................................................................. 42
W5: adaptation and justice – North-South perspective ........................................................................ 43
Adaptation strategies to cope with climate impacts ......................................................................... 43
Unequal effects and burdens of climate change: historical responsibility and intergenerational and
intragenerational equity .................................................................................................................... 47
Climate justice, politics and climate finance ..................................................................................... 47
W6: Local, national, European and transnational climate policy .......................................................... 52
Purpose (31) ...................................................................................................................................... 53
How to combine measures towards different climate goals? ........................................................... 56
W7: United nations experience (pass/fail) ............................................................................................ 62
References ............................................................................................................................................. 63
,Climate change: science & policy NWI-FMT034-2024
W1: Introduction to climate change
Current situation
Are we the cause?
No doubt (=unequivocal = 100% sure) that human activity is the cause for climate change ~ IPCC 2023
AR6 WGI SPM (1)
1. Temperatures are rising
2. Greenhouse effect: greenhouse gasses (GHGs) absorb the infrared radiation and lead to
heating
3. CO2 concentration is rising steadily (>420ppm), the rise is mainly due to the use of fossil fuel
4. On geological timescales, temperature and GHG concentrations are strongly related
(emissions -> GH effect -> more heat trapped -> higher temp)
5. Modelling: our current climate can only be simulated if we include anthropogenic GHG
emissions
Physical mechanisms, role of humans
What is the current state of climate change?
- Global surface temperatures are compared to 1850-1900, and 0.99 C higher in 2001-2020,
with larger increases over land (1.59C) than over ocean (0.88), (1) measured by five
independent institutes. Human activity mostly increases the temperature by GHGs, whereas
also cooling down was induced by other human drivers (principally aerosols: preventing heat
being trapped) and human-caused stratopheric ozone depletion (cooling down between 1979
and mid 1990s) (1)
- (1)
- Greenhouse gas emissions: 410ppm CO2, 1866ppb methane, 332 ppb N2O per year in 2019.
Land and ocean took up 56% of CO2 emissions from human activities (1). Humans emit 40
billion tonnes of CO2 in the atmosphere yearly. (2) CO2 concentrations were the highest in
2019 in 2m years, CH4 and N2O in the last 800.000 years, similar to ulti-millenial changes
between glacial and interglacial periods
- Ocean as absorbed 90% of excess heat caused by humans (since the global upper ocean (0-
700m) has warmed since 1970), and 25% of humanity’s CO2 emissions to date. Temperatures
on land increased much more than temeratures over ocean (40% more than global mean
heating) (2)
- Global sea level rise: 2020 already increase of 0.2m, in 2100 predictions ranging from 0.6 –
2m depending on scenarios. The average rate of sea level rise is now 3.7mm per year
between 2006-2018. (1) By 2050, extreme sea levels events will occur 20-30x more frequent
(compared to once a century). (2) Sea levels have been rising faster since 1900 than in the
last 3000 years. pH in surface open ocean has been increasing over the past 50 million years,
but has been unusually low in last decades than in the last 2 million years. (1)
- Precipitation (rain/snow/etc) has likely increased since 1950 over land. There are changes in
near-surface ocean salinity due to human activity (1). Mid-latitude storm tracks have likely
shifted polewards since 1980s (1).
- Glaciers are retreating since 1990 due to human influence, same as decrease in arctic sea ice
(40% decrease in sept, 10% in march) between 1979 and 1988, and 2010-2019 (internal
variability in the period in between) (1). Artic sea ice has decreased since 1850 and was
smaller than any time in at least the past 1000 years(1)
What spheres of the earth system have been affected and how?
- Troposphere as warmed since at least 1950, and stratosphere has probably cooled? (2) heat
cannot escape, so outer layers are cooling down
What temperature changes have been observed? What indicator is used to measure this?
- Global surface temperatures are compared to 1850-1900, and 0.99 C higher in 2001-2020,
with larger increases over land (1.59C) than over ocean (0.88) (1) Human activity mostly
increases the temperature by GHGs, whereas also cooling down was induced by other human
drivers (principally aerosols) and human-caused stratopheric ozone depletion (cooling down
between 1979 and mid 1990s) (1) Faster increase of gloal surface temperature than in
anyother 50y-period sinds 2000 years ago. (1)
- Hot extremes (incl heatwaves) more frequent and more intense at land since 1950s, extreme
colds less frequent and less severe, with high conficdence that human-induced climate
change is the main driver(1), as these hot extremes would be very unlikely to occur without
human influence. For example marine heatwaves have doubled in frequency since at least
2006 due to human influence.(1)
-
(2)
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