Summary
Samenvatting - Risk communication (880666-M-6)
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Total summary of risk communication course; lectures + literature
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Risk communicationCourse information
Lecture 1 - who & what -> risk and risk society
Lecture 2 and 3 - what & in what form -> psychology of risk and cognitive and emotional aspects
Lecture 4 and 5 - who, what & in what form -> strategic, social, and media risk communication
Lecture 6 and 7 - in what form & to what effect -> risk messages, words and visuals
Lecture 8 - who, what, in what form & to what effect -> uncertainty communication and trust
Lecture 9 and 10 - in what form, to whom & to what effect -> dealing with individual differences
Lecture 11 - Q and A
Ebook: Raue et al. 2018 psychological perspective on risk and risk analysis.
Journal articles and book chapters (see canvas)
Examination
70% multiple choice and open questions > 5.5
30% group project: pitch pass/fail and written report
-> 22 april pitch (pass/fail)
-> 30 may 23.59h deadline
Preparation 1
Bostrom, A., Böhm, G., & O’Connor, R. E. (2018). Chapter 11: Communicating risks:
Principles and challenges. In M. Raue, E. Lermer, & B. Streicher (Eds.), Psychological
perspectives on risk and risk analysis: Theory, models, and applications (pp. 251-278).
Zürich: Springer.
Risk communication is an interactive process of exchange of information and opinion between
individuals, groups and institutions. Risk communication includes a wide range of potential
participants from scientist to journalist, educators, nurses and doctors, pharmacist, insurance
agents and other professional intermediaries and even to neighbors, family and friends.
Everybody communicates risks. The goal for risk communication vay accordingly, across and
impressive range from, raising the level of understanding of relevant issues or actions for those
involved and satisfying them that they are adequately informed within the limits of available
knowledge, to changing people's minds and behaviors and even policies and institutions.
,When evident, persuasive intent can also provoke boomerang effects (i.e. a reaction opposite to
that desired or expected, slo called reactance).
Meso level of interpersonal and one-to- many risk information sharing
Macro level of how risk information spreads and evolves in society
Repeated exposure, false and missed alarms, risk tradeoffs and competing risk can all influence
the effects of risk communication.
Risk communication is about influencing how humans perceive risks, and sometimes the
intention is to affirm the perceptions that people already hold. Generally the intention is to raise
awareness, change attitudes, or change behaviors. Risk communication also occurs in many
different settings, and can involve individuals or groups that communicate via diverse media in
one-to-one, one-to-many, or other models. Assume various roles and pursue manifold goals.
Framework (Shannon-weaver model of communication)
Complex and diverse factors influence the communication process so that the message may not
be understood by the receiver as intended or if understood may still fail to have the intended
effect. These components of the processing of risk communications are distinguished in
traditional models of persuasive communication such as the Yale attitude change approach. In
McGuire's pioneering model the following stages are distinguished: presentation (exposure),
attention, comprehension, yielding (acceptance), retention and behavior, which are reflected in
the stages of risk information processing.
Persuasive communication attempts to influence a person's intentions, attitudes, beliefs or
behaviors.
Four key components of risk communication
1. Exposure and attention
a. Exposure: what do risk communicators express and how do they communicate?
That is, which types of risks and which dissemination pathways prevail in the risk
communication?
b. Attention: how do messages attract people's attention? Important aspects are
design and format features of risk messages?
Interpretation of experiences tends to align with and reinforce prior beliefs. Thus reliance on
sources for risk communication varies by interest, attitudes and beliefs. Dissemination strategies
,for risk communication vary by goal and context, but many have a goal to reach people who
may not be aware of or attending potential risks. Design elements can help people discern,
understand and remember what to do. Visual features that capture attention are color, motion,
orientation and size. Visual design elements can help capture and focus attention. Pictographs
can help people understand the probability of harm. Some strategies can differentially
disadvantage potential message recipients. People with low numeracy have difficulty
understanding or using numbers and may be more susceptible to framing effects.
Framing refers here to how a given piece of information is presented (or framed) in
communications. Numeracy influences attention to and interpretations of numbers and
pictographs in risk messages; low numerates focus initially on the pictographs more than do
high numerates, but anthropomorphic pictographs improve risk perception and recall more for
high numerates.
2. Understanding and acceptance
a. Information processing: what governs understanding (e.g. expression of
uncertainty, mental models?)
b. Acceptance of the message: which messages are believed to be true? An
influential factor is, for example, trust in the sender.
Uncertainty may have different meanings. Risk is traditionally defined as an uncertain negative
outcome, risk perception and communication the prevailing concept of uncertainty refers to the
probability with which the uncertain outcome may occur.
Controversial societal risks such as climate change are characterized by a psychological quality
that they called disputed risk and which reflects not only epistemic uncertainty about what is
correct but alo evaluative uncertainty about how to form an opinion about the risk issue.
Uncertainty in decision situations can be referred to as: the probability of events or states, the
truth of facts and information, the strength of arguments and reasons, the personal
endorsement of or commitment to goals and values, and uncertainty itself (e.g. if a decision
maker is uncertain about the probity of an event).
The uncertain and preliminary nature of science is difficult to understand for many lay people
and poses a major challenge for effectively communicating scientific information to the public.
One reason for this is that stochastic uncertainty and in particular the language of probity theory
is incomprehensible or misleading to lay people. Another reason is that people seek and prefer
certain and unambiguous information that can guide them in everyday decisions.
-> SCAMs scientific certainty argumentation methods
Studies have shown that the extent to which a risk is unknown, is independent of the extent to
which a risk is dreaded and of the desire to enforce strict risk reducing regulations. Some
personal background variables have been identified that moderate how a recipient reacts to
uncertainty expressed in risk communication messages (epistemic beliefs, numeracy).
Risk communicators frequently express probabilities verbally rather than numerically. Some
expressions are ambiguous and cover a rather brad probability rage; others are more narrow.
Both individual and situational factors contribute to variations in the interpretation of verbal
probity phrases. Two factors are the perceived outcome base and severity of an outcome.
Vergal probability expression possesses directionally in that some phrases focus on the
occurrence whereas others phrases focus on the nonoccurrence of the event, which influences
, subsequent judgements and decisions. Positive phrases describe higher probabilities than
negative phrases, but some positive and negative expressions cover similar probability ranges.
Risk messages convey not only information about facts but also pragmatic information about
conversational implications such as encouragement or discouragement.
Mental models: are knowledge structures that an individual ‘runs’ or simulates to make
inferences and to solve problems. Mental models encompass causal beliefs, but can be
piecemal and incomplete and developed in context as a function of one's foals or the problem at
hand rather than stored in long-term memory.
Metal models are recognized as essential building blocks for user-focused design, computer
science and interface development, and science education and have gained widespread
recognition as a fundamental determinant of human decisions and behavior.
3. Evaluative reaction and behavioral tendencies:
a. Evaluative reactions to the message: cognitive (e.g. perceived risk) and
emotional (e.g. fear) responses
b. Behavioral preferences: which behavioral options are taken into account? What
influences behavioral tendencies (e.g. perceived efficacy, culture, identity
protection)?
Mental models determine not only which risks are perceived and how they are evaluated but
also emotional reactions and behavioral responses. Behavioral tendencies result from the
emotional responses to a few dimensions of the message or situation, including agency,
outcome desirability, fairness, certainty and coping potential, which are assessed on an
individual's mental model of the situation.
Emotion that can be linked to risk communication is fear. Fear has long been seen as a viable
way to reduce people's risk taking. Theories such as the extended parallel process model
(EPPM) suggest that excessive fear might be counterproductive.
The literature on fear appeals demonstrates that the effect of such appeals depends crucially on
whether behavioral options exist and are communicated that are easy to perform and effective
in reducing risk.
Perceived efficacy, that is a personas perceived ability to produce certain attainments.
Bandura’s seminal work, which distinguished self-efficacy from outcome expectancies.
Self-efficacy refers to people's beliefs in their capability to excuse certain behaviors, whereas
outcome expectations are judgements about the outcomes that are likely to result from these
behaviors.
-> self-efficacy strong influence on behavior and successful goal attainment in the realm of
health as well as environmental risks.
Environmental risks, and particularly global risks such as climate change, have an important
collective dimension so that forms of efficacy become pertinent that relate to social or collective
action. Bandura distinguishes two forms of social agency: proxy agency that is exercised
through socially coordinated and interdependent effort. Proxy agency is partly reflected in
efficacy approaches that look at political action. Collective agency is reflected din concepts of
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