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GPSP Lecture 3: US Elections 2024
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Lecture 3: US Election 2024Exam:
- Political executions - executional elections of US: winner takes all system
- Political sociology: voting behaviour and the influence of background of voters
US country majoritarian system: two large parties
1. Democratic
2. Republican
- Most places in the US for decades vote the same
- Most of the states already have a winner
Swing states where the real battle is fought Pennsylvania
Political polarization: effects of modern media-logic
- Ideological polarization
o Symmetrical polarization: left and right become more extreme
o In US: asymmetrical polarization republicans in congress have moved further right
than democrats in congress have moved left
- Affective polarization: like and dislike of the other
o the more distanced from a group cultural, the more you think they are the same
o this happens also in the US so they have been very affected to like and dislike
Affective polarization – the emotional divide between positive feelings for one’s own
party and negative feelings for the opposing party – has significantly risen in the US. This
increase is primarily driven by growing negative statements toward opposing parties,
with feeling thermometer ratings for rivals dropping sharply since the 1970s. Although
affective polarization is observed in other democracies, its rise has been faster in the US.
Democrat and republican have been drifting apart convergent to the center again
o Increasingly political violence by group against the other group attack Capitol
January 2020 trying to stop the electoration of the formalization of the victory of
Biden
Effect of polarization: political cynicism created by journalists and negative campaign ads may have
increased turnout in presidential elections.
Swing states divided into sun belt and rust belt
- Rust belt: east part of US
, - Sun belt: south Florida
Usually the democrats are strong in the rust belt, whereas the republicans are usually strong in the
sun belt.
Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are part of the Rust Belt – former heartland of the US
manufacturing industry. That industrial heritage means many Rust Belt voters have traditionally been
union members with a long history of voting for the Democrats. democrats won all three states in
seven of the last eight presidential elections. When they did flip for Donald Trump in 2016, they all
flipped together.
Exam question: difference between majoritarian system (winner takes all) vs. proportional system
Only Main and Nebraska use a proportional system, the rest of the states it is all first past the post
system (majoritarian system)
Partisan dealignment
Partisan dealignment: a decline in the extent to which people align themselves with a party by
identifying with it.
- This implies that the ‘normal’ support of parties falls and a growing number of electors
become ‘floating’ or ‘swing’ voters.
- As party loyalties weaken, electoral behaviour becomes more volatile, leading to greater
uncertainty, and, perhaps, the rise of new parties, or the decline of old ones.
- The principal reasons for partisan dealignment are:
o The expansion of education
o Increased social mobility
o Transformation of the class structure
o Growing reliance on mass media as a source of political information
o News quality and consumption
This leads to structural transformation of voting patterns between Republicans and Democrats.
- Gender gap: female population of US is becoming increasingly democratic
- Class shift: rich and highly educated people have moved away from the republicans to the
democratics
Declining prosperity and opportunity
- Lower- and middle-class prosperity is on the decline due to globalization and neo-liberal
austerity measures dismantling the welfare state.
- Lower and middle economic strata are offered less and less socio-economic protection.
- Opportunities are shrinking due to outsourcing to countries with cheap labour and via
automation at home.
- House prices increase faster than income growth
Rust belt: industrial population have moved away (Asia) shift because of job lost
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