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16/20 samenvatting van de theorie + oefeningen
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Mauro Crabbé Academiejaar: 2024-2025 Studiepunten: 5SAMENVATTING
MACRO-ECONOMISCHE BEDRIJFSOMGEVING
HOOFDSTUK 1 A TOUR OF THE WORLD ............................................................................................................................................................................... 4
1.1 DE PANDEMIE VAN 2020 ........................................................................................................................................................................................................4
1.2 DE CRISIS VAN 2008 – 2009 ..................................................................................................................................................................................................7
1.2.1 Vergelijking coronacrisis en financiële crisis ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 8
1.2.2 Energiecrisis van vandaag .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
1.3 DE VERENIGDE STATEN ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
1.4 DE EU EN DE EUROZONE ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 11
1.4.1 De Eurozone ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 11
1.4.2 De ECB................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 12
1.4.3 The EU Green Deal............................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 12
1.4.4 Brexit................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13
1.5 CHINA ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 13
HOOFDSTUK 2 A TOUR OF THE BOOK ................................................................................................................................................................................ 14
2.1 (GEAGGREGGERDE) OUTPUT .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 14
2.1.1 Nominaal versus reëel bbp .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 15
2.2 WERKLOOSHEIDSGRAAD ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 16
2.3 INFLATIEGRAAD................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 18
2.4 OUTPUT, WERKLOOSHEID EN INFLATIE: DE WET VAN OKUN EN DE PHILIPSCURVE............................................................................................................................................... 19
2.5 KT, MLT EN LT.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 21
HOOFDSTUK 3 DE GOEDERENMARKT................................................................................................................................................................................. 21
3.1 DE SAMENSTELLING VAN HET BBP ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 21
3.2 DE VRAAG NAAR GOEDEREN ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 23
3.3 DE EVENWICHTSOUTPUT ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 24
3.4 EEN ANDERE KIJK OP HET EVENWICHT: SPAREN EN INVESTEREN.............................................................................................................................................................................. 28
3.5 IS DE OVERHEID OMNIPOTENT? ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 29
HOOFDSTUK 4 FINANCIËLE MARKTEN I ............................................................................................................................................................................ 30
4.1 DE GELDVRAAG................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 30
4.2 HET BEPALEN VAN DE INTRESTVOET, DEEL 1 ........................................................................................................................................................................ 31
4.3 HET BEPALEN VAN DE INTRESTVOET, DEEL 2 ........................................................................................................................................................................ 34
4.4 DE LIQUIDITEITSVAL........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 35
HOOFDSTUK 5 HET IS-LM MODEL ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 36
5.1 DE GOEDERENMARKT EN DE IS-CURVE ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 36
5.2 DE GELDMARKT EN DE LM-CURVE ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 38
5.3 HET IS-LM MODEL ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 39
5.4 BELEIDSMIX ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
MACRO-ECONOMISCHE BEDRIJFSOMGEVING – SAMENVATTING – SEM 1 1
, 5.5 HOE REALISTISCH IS HET IS-LM MODEL? .............................................................................................................................................................................. 42
HOOFDSTUK 6 FINANCIËLE MARKTEN II ........................................................................................................................................................................... 43
6.1 NOMINALE VERSUS REËLE INTRESTVOET ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 43
6.2 RISICO EN RISICOPREMIES ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 44
6.3 DE ROL VAN DE FINANCIËLE INTERMEDIAIRS ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 45
6.4 UITBREIDING IS-LM MODEL .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 46
6.5 VAN EEN PROBLEEM OP DE HUIZENMARKT TOT EEN FINANCIËLE CRISIS ................................................................................................................................................................. 47
HOOFDSTUK 7 DE ARBEIDSMARKT .................................................................................................................................................................................... 50
7.1 A TOUR OF THE LABOUR MARKET ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 51
7.2 VERANDERINGEN IN DE WERKLOOSHEIDSGRAAD ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 52
7.3 LOONZETTING ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 53
7.4 PRIJSZETTING.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 55
7.5 DE NATUURLIJKE WERKLOOSHEIDSGRAAD ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 55
HOOFDSTUK 8 DE PHILIPSCURVE, DE NATUURLIJKE WERKLOOSHEID EN INFLATIE ................................................................................................ 57
8.1 INFLATIE, VERWACHTE INFLATIE EN WERKLOOSHEID ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 58
8.2 DE PHILIPSCURVE EN HAAR MUTATIES.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 58
8.3 DE PHILIPSCURVE EN DE NATUURLIJKE WERKLOOSHEID ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 61
8.4 EEN SAMENVATTING EN VELE WAARSCHUWINGEN...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 62
HOOFDSTUK 9 VAN KT NAAR MLT: HET IS-LM-PC-MODEL ............................................................................................................................................. 64
9.1 HET IS-LM-PC-MODEL ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 64
9.2 VAN KT NAAR MLT ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 65
9.3 (MOGELIJKE) COMPLICATIES .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 66
9.4 FISCALE RESTRICTIE REVISITED ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 68
9.5 DE EFFECTEN VAN EEN TOENAME VAN DE OLIEPRIJS .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 68
9.6 CONCLUSIES ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 71
HOOFDSTUK 10 CORONACRISIS ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 71
10.1 ECONOMISCHE IMPACT VAN DE LOCKDOWN .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 72
10.2 MACRO-ECONOMISCHE BELEIDSREACTIE ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 73
10.3 POST-LOCKDOWN ECONOMIE................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 75
10.4 POST-VACCIN ECONOMIE .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 76
HOOFDSTUK 11 ECONOMISCHE GROEI: DE FEITEN ............................................................................................................................................................ 77
11.1 HET METEN VAN DE LEVENSSTANDAARD............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 78
11.2 GROEI IN ONTWIKKELDE LANDEN VANAF 1950 ................................................................................................................................................................ 79
11.3 EEN VERDERE KIJK DOORHEEN TIJD EN RUIMTE ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 80
11.4 EEN EERSTE KIJK OP GROEI ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 81
HOOFDSTUK 12 SPAREN, KAPITAALACCUMULATIE EN DE OUTPUT .............................................................................................................................. 83
12.1 INTERACTIES TUSSEN OUTPUT EN KAPITAAL ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 83
12.2 DE GEVOLGEN VAN VERSCHILLENDE SPAARQUOTES............................................................................................................................................................................................. 84
12.3 FYSIEK VERSUS MENSELIJK KAPITAAL .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 87
HOOFDSTUK 13 TECHNOLOGISCHE VOORUITGANG........................................................................................................................................................... 88
13.1 TECHNOLOGISCHE VOORUITGANG ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 88
13.2 DE DETERMINANTEN VAN TECHNOLOGISCHE VOORUITGANG ............................................................................................................................................................................. 91
13.3 INSTITUTIES, TECHNOLOGISCHE VOORUITGANG EN GROEI .................................................................................................................................................................................. 92
HOOFDSTUK 14 UITDAGINGEN ROND ECONOMISCHE GROEI........................................................................................................................................... 93
14.1 DE TOEKOMST VAN TECHNOLOGISCHE VOORUITGANG ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 93
14.2 AUTOMATISERING EN WERKLOOSHEID .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 93
14.3 TECHNOLOGISCHE VOORUITGANG, CHURNING EN ONGELIJKHEID ....................................................................................................................................................................... 94
MACRO-ECONOMISCHE BEDRIJFSOMGEVING – SAMENVATTING – SEM 1 2
,HOOFDSTUK 15 FINANCIËLE MARKTEN EN VERWACHTINGEN ........................................................................................................................................ 96
HOOFDSTUK 16 VERWACHTINGEN, CONSUMPTIE EN INVESTERINGEN ......................................................................................................................... 96
16.1 CONSUMPTIE.............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 96
16.2 INVESTERINGEN ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 97
16.3 DE VOLATILITEIT VAN CONSUMPTIE EN INVESTERINGEN .................................................................................................................................................................................... 99
HOOFDSTUK 17 VERWACHTINGEN, OUTPUT EN BELEID ................................................................................................................................................ 100
17.1 VERWACHTINGEN EN BESLISSINGEN .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 100
17.2 MONETAIR BELEID, VERWACHTINGEN EN OUTPUT............................................................................................................................................................................................. 101
17.3 BUDGETTAIRE RESTRICTIE, VERWACHTINGEN EN OUTPUT ............................................................................................................................................................................... 102
HOOFDSTUK 18 OPENHEID OP DE GOEDERENMARKT EN FINANCIËLE MARKTEN..................................................................................................... 103
18.1 OPENHEID OP DE GOEDERENMARKT..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 105
18.2 OPENHEID OP DE FINANCIËLE MARKTEN ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 108
18.3 CONCLUSIES EN VOORUITBLIK ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 111
HOOFDSTUK 19 DE GOEDERENMARKT IN EEN OPEN ECONOMIE .................................................................................................................................. 111
19.1 DE IS-RELATIE IN EEN OPEN ECONOMIE .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 111
19.2 EVENWICHTSOUTPUT EN DE HANDELSBALANS ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 112
19.3 TOENAMES VAN DE VRAAG – BINNENLANDS EN BUITENLANDS ........................................................................................................................................................................ 113
19.4 DEPRECIATIE, DE HANDELSBALANS EN OUTPUT ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 115
19.5 SPAREN, INVESTERINGEN, EN DE BALANS VAN DE LOPENDE REKENINGEN...................................................................................................................................................... 117
HOOFDSTUK 20 OUTPUT, DE INTRESTVOET EN DE WISSELKOERS ............................................................................................................................... 117
20.1 EVENWICHT OP DE GOEDERENMARKT .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 117
20.2 EVENWICHT OP DE FINANCIËLE MARKTEN .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 118
20.3 BEIDE MARKTEN SAMEN ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 119
20.4 EFFECTEN VAN BELEID IN EEN OPEN ECONOMIE................................................................................................................................................................................................. 119
HOOFDSTUK 21 KLIMACRO .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 120
HOOFDSTUK 22 BEYOND GDP .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 126
22.1 BBP EN ZIJN BEPERKINGEN ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 126
22.2 BEYOND GDP (EP) EN SSF: MIJLPALEN? ...................................................................................................................................................................... 127
22.3 ALTERNATIEVEN ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 127
22.4 BELEID ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 130
22.5 POSTGROEI ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 131
HOOFDSTUK 23 EXTRA: ANALYSE VAN DE BELGISCHE ECONOMIE EN HET ECONOMISCH BELEID.......................................................................... 132
23.1 EUROPA: AANBEVELINGEN VOOR BELGIË ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 132
MACRO-ECONOMISCHE BEDRIJFSOMGEVING – SAMENVATTING – SEM 1 3
, HOOFDSTUK 1 A TOUR OF THE WORLD
1.1 DE PANDEMIE VAN 2020
→ TIMELINE
December 2019 Januari 2020 Maart 2020
Berichten over nieuw virus in # ziekenhuisopnames en Lockdown in meeste landen, ook
Wuhan, stad gaat in lockdown sterfgevallen exponentieel in België
op 23 januari 2020
RoW bezorgd over impact op
Chinese economie en van de
handelspartners.
Global supply chains
→ België
Grafiek toont het nummer van bezoekers
sinds begin van de pandemie.
OPVALLEND:
• Parken ↑
• Supermarkten en apothekers ↑
• Daling in bijna al de rest
MACRO-ECONOMISCHE BEDRIJFSOMGEVING – SAMENVATTING – SEM 1 4
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