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Economics for Political Scientists: Lecture Notes

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This document contains my class notes for the course Economics for Political Scientists.

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  • October 21, 2020
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  • 2019/2020
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LECTURE 1: ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INEQUALITY

WHAT IS THE STUDY OF ECONOMICS?
 Study of human behavior with a focus on economic incentives and economic outcomes
 Focus on:
1. Economic incentives
2. Economic outcomes

Economic incentives
 Choosing outcomes that improve your (or a group of country) economic welfare
 How those choices are shaped by markets and other circumstances (like policy)

How people make choices under scarcity: Economy vs sentiment and benevolence

Economic outcomes
 Microeconomics: The study of individual incentives
 The thousands of incentives faced by billions of individuals and millions of firms lead to aggregate
outcomes
o inequality, economic growth and development, economic crises, inflation and unemployment,
trade and investment
 Macroeconomics: The study of these aggregated outcomes
o business cycles and government response, international trade, international finance,
monetary policy
 Often, outcomes are shaped by both political and economic incentives
 Politics often shape economic incentives in intended and unintended ways

Microeconomics
 The study of individual actors
o Actors — Firms, people, households
 How actors make decisions/allocations of scarce resources
o Scarce resources — those you don’t have an infinite amount of
o How people decide where to put those resources and how that affects prices and markets
Macroeconomics
 The study of the economy in aggregate
o Millions of individual actors
 Focuses on policy-related questions

Hockey stick diagram: Shows rapid, sustained growth in average living standards since 1700

KEY CONCEPTS
1. Nominal GDP (or GDP growth)
 Gross domestic product measured in current currency amount
 Does not account for inflation or differences in purchasing power across countries
 Simply refers to the “sticker price"

2. Real (Constant) GDP (GDP growth) (in constant prices)
 Important for measuring changes over time
 Growth adjusted for changes in inflation
 We translate current nominal prices to a consistent baseline
 Applies to any type of price measure: Movie ticket sales, Stock market prices

3. Purchasing power parity
 Important for measuring changes across countries and time
 Growth adjusted for differences in currencies and what those currencies purchase
 Generally we translate local economic activity in to its equivalent in USD of a particular year
 Consumer Price Index (CPI)


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,ECONOMIC GROWTH
What is economic growth?
 Increase in the capacity of an economy to produce goods and services, compared from one period of
time to another
 An increase in real GDP: Increase in national output and national income

How do we measure economic growth?
 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
 GDP to compare the size of economies
o across time (GDP growth) & across countries (level of development)

Where does economic growth come from?
 Increases in: natural resource discovery, physical capital or infrastructure, population, human capital,
technology, law

Long-term causes
 An increase in the long run aggregate supply (productive capacity) and AD
o Increased capital: investment in new factories or investment in infrastructure, such as roads
and telephones
o Increase in working population: through immigration, higher birth rate.
o Increase in labor productivity: through better education and training or improved technology

Short term causes
 An increase in aggregate demand
 External shocks
o An unexpected change in an economic variable which takes place outside the economy
o Increase in the price of oil and a firm's costs of production
o Trump’s trade war
 Animal spirits
o Optimism and pessimism (drive investment but also household consumption and
saving); psychology effects
 Government monetary or fiscal policy

Y = C + I + G + (X- M)
 Y = GDP (national income)
 C= Consumer spending (on finished goods)
 I = Investment (in capital goods)
 G = Government spending (on finished goods)
 X = Exports
 M = Imports
 (x=m) — often seen as “NX” or “net exports"

WHAT DOES GDP MEASURE?
 GDP measures the market value of all finished goods produced within a country (usually measured
yearly)
o Finished good: goods that will not be sold again as part of another good (cake)
o Intermediate goods: goods that will be used to make something else that will be sold (eggs)
o Capital goods: goods that are used to produce other goods not a part of other goods
 Measured by government statisticians
 Does not include things that are imported from other countries
o Stuff made in another country and sent here
 Does include things exported to other countries
o Stuff made in a country and sent out of the country


GDP per capita


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,  GDP — How big an economy is
 GDP per capita — How wealthy a country is
 GDP per capita = GDP/population
o Dividing GDP by a country’s total population

Wealth and health of nations
 GDP only measures material values
o Good indicator of development? Correlated with health and happiness.
 Faults of GDP:
o GDP doesn’t tell us about inequality — the distribution of income within a country
o Historically, GDP growth usually does correlate with growth in everyone’s income
 Differences between the rich and the poor are huge within every country
 There are also huge differences in income between countries

Inequality over time
 1000 years ago: small differences between countries
 1980: Poorest countries were Lesotho and China; the richest were Switzerland, Finland and the US
 Today: Differences between the richest 10% and the rest of a country’s population have become
more pronounced

Local and global inequality
 Why are some countries rich, while others are poor?
 Why are some people in a country rich, while others in the same country are poor?
o Economic reasons (technology and capitalism)
o Political reasons (democracy and property rights)

ECONOMIC SYSTEMS
 The explosion in growth rates coincides with adoption of different economic systems
 The adoption of more capitalist economic systems
o Other types of systems: feudal, communist, mercantilist (Stalinist)
 There are no pure economic systems
o Most economic systems are a mix with more or less of different components of each
o Creating labels makes it easier to talk about
The increase in economic growth starts with capitalism…
 Capitalism: an economic system in which private property, markets, and firms play an important role
 Economic system founded on individualism and economic incentives

CAPITALISM
3 elements of Capitalism
1. Private property
o People can keep the gains of their labor and are protected from: the government and others
trying to confiscate it
o They can also own capital goods
2. Markets
o The allocations of goods and services are determined by buying and selling, not government
3. Firms (privately run and organized)
o A business organization which pays wages and salaries to employ people, and purchases
inputs, to produce and market goods and services with the intention of making a profit
o Adam Smith and the Wealth of Nations

What does capitalism give us?
1. division of labor
2. specialization
3. entrepreneurial innovators
4. new technology
Incentives and economic organization


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,  The gains of specialization and division of labor are increased when individuals are incentivized to do
what they’re best at (or most efficient) at doing — "Self-sufficiency is the road to poverty"
o Specialization — takes place when an individual, country or some other entity produces a
narrower range of goods and services than it consumes, acquiring the goods and services
that it does not produce by trade
o Division of labor — the specialization of producers to carry out different tasks in the
production process

Technological innovation
 Technological innovation is clearly tied to improving economies and improving living standards
 Where does technological innovation come from?
o Economic incentives
 Why would you invent a new product?
o To make the world a better place
o To impress your friends
o To make money — incentives matter
 Incentives lead to “innovationism"
o The rapid expansion of growth is in large part due to innovations
o We usually mark this with the emergence of the Industrial Revolution

Creative destruction
 Innovation produces winners and losers
 This generates, along with different initial abilities and capital, inequalities within countries
 When there is intervention to protect the “losers”, innovation lags
 Uber vs Taxi

Democracy and property rights
 Democracy has many definitions, but generally includes:
1. Giving equal political power to all citizens
 This power is defined by individual rights such as freedom of speech, assembly and
the press
2. Selecting political leaders by means of elections
 In these elections, virtually all adults are eligible to vote, and the governing party
leaves office if it loses
 By giving individual power to choose their economic system, they generally opt to secure property
rights and prevent non-competitive forces
 Political institutions ensure secure property rights

Political institutions and inequality
 Political institutions can also determine who within a country benefits from markets and can restrict
certain groups from enjoying the benefits of a market economy
 Political institutions can also help address, though not-market means, the inequalities that arise
because of capitalism’s tendency to generate inequality
o Social welfare systems
o Trade protection

LECTURE 2: GAME THEORY (STUDY FROM THE PP SLIDES!)

Interaction
 Economic (and political) actors do not act in isolation; Our actions impact others, others’ actions impact us
 This produces opportunity (gains) and conflict (losses) for individuals, groups and society

Game theory
 A tool of social science used to examine strategic interaction between individuals (or groups)
 Game theory is not a theory — it is an analytical tool and method
 Starts from the assumption that individuals are rational


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