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College aantekeningen analysis and control of risk (0LSUA)
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Lecture 1Heuristics= science, the teaching of the art of finding. She is committed to methodically and
systematically arrive at inventions and discoveries.
Bias= inclination or prejudice for or against one person or group, especially in a way considered to be
unfair.
Core messages:
1. Heuristics are also biases
2. Experts have lay risk risk perceptions
3. Biases can be anticipated and mitigated through planning
Representatives -> people judge a probabilistic relationship, A has similar characteristics as B.
For example, “How likely is it that Steve is a librarian?” is judged by how much Steve has
characteristics such as shy, helpful, etc. (A) resembling the average librarian (B).Regarding risk: “How
likely is it that the results of Company X will be poor?” is judged based on the perceived qualities of
Company X, disregarding prior probability, sample size, randomness, predictability, independence of
predictive variables, and regression.
Availability -> People represent risk by what instances of the outcome can be brought to mind. The
availability of memories associated with the risk, or the ease of imagining something associated with
the risk, therefore increases the estimation of risk.
Anchoring and adjustment -> People estimate new risks according to “anchor” estimates associated
with familiar risks.
Example: “People think Chicago is more sparsely populated, for example, after considering whether
its population is more or less than 200,000 than after considering whether its population is more or
less than 5 million
A bias or a heuristic?
depends on whether it is systematically skewed or misleading within the context of judgment/
decision.
o If it is a useful shortcut that is reliable within the context, then we call it a heuristic.
o If it is unreliable or systematically skewed within the context, then we call it a bias.
Everybody uses heuristics. It is often necessary to “think fast.”
Experts have lay risk perceptions
•Experts often have to think fast.
•Expertise is by its nature limited to a particular focal area; outside their narrow domain of
expertise, experts are laypeople.
•Some risk perceptions are triggered by biological systems common to all humans.
•When they are considering the badness of the risk from a perspective other than a professional
role.
,Risk perception= mental representations of risks, i.e., possible bad events in the future
Expert danger sensor -> someone who already has experienced this type of danger might detect it
earlier, yet due to sensory adaption the individual might detect it less early
Expert judgments tend to be most accurate when?
•They are based on large quantities of prompt, unambiguous feedback;
•There are rewards for accuracy;
•They are expressed in explicit, consistent ways;
•They take into account human and organizational factors.
Eight ways to improve expert advice
1. use groups
2. choose members carefully
3. don’t be starstruck
4. avoid homogeneity
5. don’t be bullied
6. weight opinions
7. train experts
8. give feedback
Lecture 2
Risk= the probability x the severity
Risk communication deals with communicating about risks and benefits. Risk communication has
different goals:
1. helping people to understand the risk they face
2. fostering promoting informed decisions about risks (we combine 1 and 2 and there will be
added an extra)
3. encouraging people to minimize or prevent risks, changing behavior
4. creating support and achieving joint decision-making
framing is the way in which a risk is conceptualized.
Different stakeholders frame risks in different ways
When a person or institution makes a choice about how t measure risk and preset it to others is
called defining risk (kind of framing).
Risk indicators -> some valued outcomes are too complex to capture with direct measurement.
These risks must be defined with ‘indicators’ that serve as proxies for the most valued outcomes
(ecosystems and human societies).
Morally adequate consent is based on adequate information.
Where there is consent to personal risk, we must give an adequate description of the risk.
Right amount of information, so not too less or too much
There can be descriptively equivalent minimum adequate descriptions (8% risk of death is
the same as 92% risk of survival), yet they might have impact on their decision.
, People perceive different ways of risk: ‘moral magic’ or ‘morally transformative quality’ od
consent refers to the fact that some ways of acting towards a person are impermissible
without consent, but permissible with consent. ( sexual touching, injection)
Arbitrary consent= when equivalent descriptions lead to different voluntary choice, thinking
fast increases this.
Argument regarding consent and choice:
1. Adequate descriptions provide a morally adequate basis for voluntary choice of &
consent to a risk. (by def.)
2. In some situations, two adequate descriptions of risk lead to different voluntary choices
& consent for the same individual. (Empirical)
3. Where (2) is true, voluntary choices and consent have a morally adequate basis, but an
arbitrary outcome. (1 + 2)
4. If voluntary choice and consent are morally transformative, their outcomes cannot be
arbitrary. (Conceptual)
5. Hence voluntary choice and consent are not morally transformative in situations where
(2) obtains.
Limitations:
•The argument only applies to adequate descriptions.
•The argument does not apply to cases in which the relevant information communicated
goes beyond the adequate description (for example, where it implies relevant information
about the intentions or motives of the source of the communication).
•There are many other reasons besides moral trans formativeness for requiring consent.
Lecture 3
Heuristics and biases: people often form beliefs about uncertainty using shortcuts
(“heuristics”). With care, experts can overcome the biases associated with these shortcuts.
Framing and definition: people’s consent and voluntary action depend on how risks are
expressed and measured, which means we have ethical reasons to make considered choices
about risk communication .
AIMS OF WACHINGERET AL. (2013)
Investigates “connection between risk perception, willingness to act, and risk preparedness”
(1050).
Draws conclusions based on many studies of natural disaster risk perception and
preparedness (literature review).
RISK PARADOX: RESULTS REGARDING RISK PERCEPTION OF NATURAL HAZARDS
Direct experience has a strong effect on risk perception (1052).
Trust in authorities and protective measures influences risk perception (1053) but is
modulated by responsibility attribution.
, Personal and contextual factors such as gender, age, family status, size of community, etc.
mediate the above two main factors
“Technical” characteristics of the risk (probability, magnitude) do not influence risk
perception much (1051).
WHY DON’T LAYPEOPLE WITH HIGH RISK PERCEPTION DIRECTLY ENGAGE IN RISK AVOIDANCE/
MITIGATION?
1.For them, natural hazard risks are outweighed by other factors (benefits associated with non-
avoidance behaviors).
2.They perceive somebody else to be responsible (and trust them to take responsibility in some
way).
3.They have few resources and/or low capacity to avoid or mitigate the risk.
The same 3 reasons as for experts
TWO MAIN KINDS OF REASONS FOR NON-PREPAREDNESS
Low risk perception (experience, heuristics, trust in authority, responsibility attribution)
Gap between perception and action (risk paradox)
MAIN POINTS IN THIS LECTURE
Perception of serious risk is determined by a few main (non-psychological) factors.
There are several key barriers between high risk perception and risk preparedness (taking
action).
These barriers affect both laypeople and experts.
Lecture 4
Group= >2 people, and everybody within the group can communicate with every one (but no exact
upper limit)
Team = a group which is goal driven (a team is always a group but a team is not always a team)
Group level and organizational causes: basic points
–Our interest in knowing the causes of hazard can be backward-looking and specific to a particular
incident (blame orientation), or forward-looking and general (risk orientation).
–In technological and social systems, causation involves both actions and failures to act (omissions).
Part I: Group level causes of safety and hazard
■The positive role of well-functioning teams
■The negative role of teams: diffusion of responsibility, groupthink, faulty norms
■Group-level safety climate
■Theory of planned behavior: role of group norms
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