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Scientific and Statistical Reasoning Block 1

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  • Course
  • Scientific and Statistical Reasoning
  • Institution
  • Universiteit Van Amsterdam (UvA)
  • Book
  • Discovering Statistics Using IBM SPSS

This document provides the necessary content to properly understand the content for the first block of SSR. The lectures are summarized perfectly: the necessary information is included, illustrations to better understand the concepts are provided, and chapter notes that accompany the lectures are i...

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Document information

  • December 2, 2022
  • 35
  • 2022/2023
  • Class notes
  • Roeland
  • Lecture 1 to 10

Subjects

  • ssr
  • ssr summary
  • field
  • discovering statistics
  • uva statistics
  • ssr uva
  • scientific and statistical reasoning
  • scientific and statistical reasonining

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  • Universiteit van Amsterdam (UvA)
  • BSc Psychology
  • Scientific and Statistical Reasoning
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Introduction to SSR and elements of arguments
Need for critical thinking
● people need to be reflective (know if something is causation/correlation)
● society gets polarized→ by social media for example (shows your opinion more due
to algorithm)


Critical thinking→ focus on the reasons people have for making decisions or believing the
stuff they believe in
- Components of critical thinking:
- attitude
- knowledge
- thinking skills
- Clear thinking: thinking that is purposeful, reasoned and goal directed
- Identifying assumptions
- Evaluating assumptions
- Being able to view one’s own ideas from several perspectives
- Be able to make well-informed decisions based on the above


Steps in argument assessment
1. Develop a critical disposition
a. many errors occur not because people can’t think critically, but because they
do not
b. flexibility→ willing to self-correct
c. persistence→ more effortful to be critical in your thinking
d. willingness to self-correct and admit errors→ new info might change mind
e. being mindful→ have the capacity to draw novel distinctions
2. Learn to recognize arguments




Answer: A. Argument
- Persuading by giving arguments

, Answer: C. Rhetoric
- Trying to get an emotional reaction→ uses the power of words




Answer: A. Argument
- Attempts to change mind by using reasons




Answer: B. Explanation
- Assumes that the audience already agrees, explain how it came to be
3. Learn to reconstruct arguments
4. Logical assessment
5. Factual assessment


Arguments: attempt to persuade by giving reasons
➢ set of propositions: consisting of→ number or premises, conclusion
➢ a sentence can contain several propositions
➢ not every sentence is a proposition
➢ the same sentence may contain different propositions depending on context
➢ a declarative sentence usually contains more information than just the
proposition/factual content
○ rhetoric
○ implicature

,Explanations: attempt to illustrate why something is the case, not that something is the
case
Rhetoric: verbal/written attempt to persuade solely through power of words used



Chapter 1 BK
● Rhetoric: verbal/written attempt to persuade someone to believe, desire or do
something → does not attempt to give good reasons → attempts to motivate
through the power of words
● Argument: set of propositions of which one is a conclusion and the rest are
premises (intended to support that conclusion)
● Proposition: factual content expressed by declarative sentence on a particular
occasion → same proposition might be expressed in different sentences
● Explanation: speaker assumes that the audience already accepts a proposition and
the speaker has no need to persuade the audience of this fact


Analyzing attempts to persuade:
1. Identifying whether or not the writer is attempting to persuade by means of
argument
2. Reconstructing the argument clearly→ demonstrate the steps and form of
argument’s reasoning
3. Evaluating what is good about it and what is not


Standard form
1. identify the conclusion (C)
2. identify the premises (P)
3. number and write the premises down in order
4. draw in the inference bar
5. write out the conclusions
Identifying premises→ reasons for believing the conclusion
- Do not include indicator words
Intermediate conclusions: conclusion of an argument may itself serve as a premise for
another argument


Chapter 1 Halpern
Attitude + Knowledge + Thinking skills = Critical thinking
Develop the disposition for effortful thinking and learning
❖ Willingness to plan→ plan how you will think and act
❖ Cognitive flexibility→ ability to change how we think about something
❖ Persistence→ willingness and ability to keep at a task

, ❖ Acknowledge → acknowledge mistakes and learn from them
❖ Avoid self-justification→ avoid becoming defensive about errors and making
excuses about beliefs/behaviors instead of considering they might be incorrect
❖ Mindful→ direct attention to the process and products of own thoughts
❖ Consensus→ seek ways in which consensus among group members can be reached

Statistical reasoning → null hypothesis testing
Statistical thinking
1. apply → what methods to use in a specific situation
2. critique → comment/reflect on work
3. evaluate → assigning value to work
4. generalize → what does variation mean in large scheme of life


Empirical cycle
Observation (idea for hypothesis)⇒ Induction (hypothesis)⇒ Deduction(operationalize
hypothesis + expectation)⇒ Testing (the hypothesis)⇒ Evaluation (interpret results)


H0= Null hypothesis
*reject null if outside the red lines
1.determine what H0 distrubiton looks like
decision criterias are based on H0
2. set criteria
3. decide to reject outsides and accept
insides
4. determine probability of wrong decision (if wrong) or right decision (if right)


H1= Alternative hypothesis


Binomial distribution → discrete outcome space
Normal distribution → continuous outcome space (every value of the x- axis is possible)
Population distribution→ everyone in the world is included
Sample distribution→ percentage of population is included
Samples distribution→ aggregated samples are included


SPSS
● Data→ select cases→ paste ⇒ This selects cases that follow some rule
● Select and click run button to start up the pasted information
● Graph→ chart builder ⇒ Allows to visualize data with a graph

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