sustainability
Article
Assessing Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise on
Public Health and Vulnerable Populations in
Southeast Florida and Providing a Framework to
Improve Outcomes
Frederick Bloetscher 1, *, Colin Polsky 2 , Keren Bolter 2 , Diana Mitsova 3 ,
Kristin Palbicke Garces 4 , Roderick King 4 , Isabel Cosio Carballo 5 and Karen Hamilton 5
1 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, FL 33431, USA
2 Center for Environmental Studies, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, FL 33431, USA;
cpolsky@fau.edu (C.P.); kbolter@fau.edu (K.B.)
3 School of Urban and Regional Planning, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, FL 33431, USA;
dmitsova@fau.edu
4 Florida Institute for Health Innovation, West Palm Beach, FL 33407, USA;
kgarces@flhealthinnovation.org (K.P.G.); rking@flinnovation.org (R.K.)
5 South Florida Regional Planning Council, Hollywood, FL 33021, USA; isabelc@sfrpc.org (I.C.C.);
khamilton@sfrpc.org (K.H.)
* Correspondence: fbloetsc@fau.edu; Tel.: +1-239-250-2423
Academic Editors: William D. Shuster, Audrey L. Mayer and Ahjond S. Garmestani
Received: 12 January 2016; Accepted: 25 March 2016; Published: 31 March 2016
Abstract: In recent years, ongoing efforts by a multitude of universities, local governments, federal
agencies, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have been focused on sea-level rise (SLR)
adaptation in Florida. However, within these efforts, there has been very little attention given to
the potential impacts of sea-level rise on human health. The intent of this project is to identify
populations in Southeast Florida that are most vulnerable to sea-level rise from a topographic
perspective, determine how vulnerable these population are from a socio-economic perspective,
identify potential health impacts, develop adaptation strategies designed to assist these communities,
and produce an outreach effort that can be shared with other coastal communities. The location of
socially-vulnerable and health-vulnerable populations are correlated, but at present they are not
generally in the geographically-vulnerable areas. Projections indicate that they will become at risk
in the future but the lack of data on emerging diseases makes public health assessments difficult.
We propose a redefinition of “who is vulnerable?” to include health indicators and hard infrastructure
solutions for flood and property protection. These tools can be used to help protect water resources
from the impacts of climate change, which would, in turn, protect public health via drinking water
supplies, and efforts to address social issues.
Keywords: sea level rise; vulnerable populations; groundwater; vector- and waterborne diseases
1. Introduction
Climate change impacts are felt globally, but some areas and populations are recognized as being
particularly vulnerable [1–3]. The Southeast Florida region, with its low-lying coasts, subtropical
climate, porous geology, and distinctive hydrology, has been identified as one of the world’s most
vulnerable areas [1–4]. Due to these unique conditions, sea-level rise is the principal long-term,
permanent impact of climate change for the region, threatening both its natural systems and its densely
populated and highly diverse built environment [1,4]. With 6.6 million people, the region constitutes
Sustainability 2016, 8, 315; doi:10.3390/su8040315 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability
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region constitutes one‐third of the state’s total population, one third of the state’s economy, over $4
one-third
trillion in of the state’s
property totaland
value, population,
among the one third of
highest the of
rates state’s economy,
projected over $4growth
population trillion in
in property
the state
value,
[5]. and among the highest rates of projected population growth in the state [5].
The mean
The mean sea
sea level
level is
is expected
expected to
to rise
rise up
up to
to three
three feet
feet (1
(1 m)
m) by
by 2100
2100 due
due increased
increased rates
rates of
of thermal
thermal
expansion, glacier mass loss, groundwater losses, and discharge from land-based
expansion, glacier mass loss, groundwater losses, and discharge from land‐based ice‐sheets [1,6–11]. ice-sheets [1,6–11].
The
The U.S. Army Corps
U.S. Army Corps ofof Engineers
Engineers used
used Key
Key West
West tidal
tidal data
data from
from 1913
1913 to 1999 to
to 1999 to calculate
calculate aa projected
projected
sea-level rise.
sea‐level rise. Results
Resultssuggested
suggestedthatthatthe
thesea‐level
sea-level rise
rise in in Southeast
Southeast Florida
Florida willwill
riserise
oneone
footfoot
fromfrom
the
the 2010 baseline by 2040, and could raise two feet (0.65 m) by 2060 [12].
2010 baseline by 2040, and could raise two feet (0.65 m) by 2060 [12]. Figure 1 shows the current Figure 1 shows the
current projections
projections and theand the uncertainty
uncertainty associated
associated withwhich
with same same which
comport comport
with thewith the medium
medium 2013
2013 IPCC
IPCC projections.
projections.
Figure
Figure 1.
1. Projected
Projected sea
sea level
level rise.
rise.
Much of the research focus has been on coastal communities due to the direct threat of sea level
Much of the research focus has been on coastal communities due to the direct threat of sea level
rise (SLR). Bloetscher, et al. [13], Bloetscher and Romah [14], and Romah [15] noted that groundwater
rise (SLR). Bloetscher, et al. [13], Bloetscher and Romah [14], and Romah [15] noted that groundwater
levels in Southeast Florida are intrinsically linked to the sea level and, thus, while coastal populations
levels in Southeast Florida are intrinsically linked to the sea level and, thus, while coastal populations
are particularly at risk due to erosion, inundation, and storm surge, interior populations are also
are particularly at risk due to erosion, inundation, and storm surge, interior populations are also
susceptible to rising water tables and extended periods of inundation. Chang, et al. [16] describes an
susceptible to rising water tables and extended periods of inundation. Chang, et al. [16] describes
overall “lifting process” by which there is a 1:1 ratio in water table elevation that correlated to sea‐
an overall “lifting process” by which there is a 1:1 ratio in water table elevation that correlated to
level rise. Higher groundwater levels mean reduced aquifer storage, thereby lessening the capacity
sea-level rise. Higher groundwater levels mean reduced aquifer storage, thereby lessening the capacity
of soil to absorb precipitation, and thereby increasing the risk of groundwater flooding [14,15,17].
of soil to absorb precipitation, and thereby increasing the risk of groundwater flooding [14,15,17].
Due to the associated loss of soil storage capacity caused by sea level rise, more intense storms will
Due to the associated loss of soil storage capacity caused by sea level rise, more intense storms will
overwhelm the current storm water infrastructure. Projections indicate the potential for severe
overwhelm the current storm water infrastructure. Projections indicate the potential for severe damage
damage to Southeast Florida’s energy systems, transportation infrastructure, water infrastructure,
to Southeast Florida’s energy systems, transportation infrastructure, water infrastructure, agricultural
agricultural lands, and the Everglades ecosystem [18,19].
lands, and the Everglades ecosystem [18,19].
Much of the current work on adaptation to sea‐level rise (SLR) focuses on understanding the
Much of the current work on adaptation to sea-level rise (SLR) focuses on understanding the
physical and economic vulnerability of infrastructure, as well as on developing adaptation strategies
physical and economic vulnerability of infrastructure, as well as on developing adaptation strategies
for the natural and built environments using new infrastructure systems [18,20–25]. Long‐term
for the natural and built environments using new infrastructure systems [18,20–25]. Long-term
decisions which consider a systems approach that includes population, economics, and
decisions which consider a systems approach that includes population, economics, and environmental
environmental conditions, are essential as local governments and businesses examine long‐term
conditions, are essential as local governments and businesses examine long-term viability, particularly
viability, particularly in respect to investment decisions related to location. Property values are also
in respect to investment decisions related to location. Property values are also dependent upon the
dependent upon the maintenance of transportation and utilities, especially storm water, wastewater
treatment, and water supply. The insurance industry, which has traditionally been focused on a one
, Sustainability 2016, 8, 315 3 of 18
maintenance of transportation and utilities, especially storm water, wastewater treatment, and water
supply. The insurance industry, which has traditionally been focused on a one year vision of loss risk,
is beginning to discuss long-term risks of losses. If the insurance industry takes a longer view of risk,
there will be an accompanying impact on lending practices. Where properties are at risk, lending
options may be reduced by insurance limitations—i.e., if the insurance industry sees the potential for
significant losses from sea level rise within 30 years, the mortgage industry will limit the length of
loans and increase interest rates due to insurance risk, thereby increasing costs to buyers and reducing
the attractiveness of the purchase for sellers. The result may be declining property values and slower
sales. Hence, it is in the community’s interest to develop a planning framework to adapt to sea-level
rise and protect vulnerable infrastructure through a long-term plan.
Climate change also has the potential to create a serious public health threat that affects human
health outcomes and disease patterns [26]. Although preventative and adaptive strategies for climate
change will help lessen negative health impacts, human health will continue to be affected from present
climate change conditions [27–29]. It is expected that climate change will both aggravate existing
human health risks and conditions and create new ones. Health impacts will vary and have both
direct and indirect effects [28]. Populations with combined health, socio-economic, and place-based
vulnerabilities will be most affected [29]. The health impacts will be felt to different degrees depending
on action taken to adapt [20,22,30,31].
Due to the inevitability of sea-level rise in Southeast Florida and in other low-lying coastal regions
as a consequence of climate change, the focus of this research was to identify the communities most
at risk, evaluating potential nexus points for three factors: (1) areas that will be most vulnerable to
sea-level rise using United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) projections; (2) locations of
populations that are socially and economically vulnerable; and (3) locations of increased health risk.
Socially-vulnerable populations that reside in these low-lying areas and already have predisposed
health vulnerabilities and economic limitations lack the resources and capacity to mitigate sea-level
rise impacts. In this investigation, current conditions were compared against incremental increases
of 0, 1, 2, and 3 feet of sea-level rise based on actual data. The increments work as threshold values
by allowing planners to know ahead of time where the next set of vulnerable areas will be, thereby
permitting an opportunity for a proactive response approach.
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Sea Level and Groundwater Mapping
Prior to compiling data, the local community needs were assessed in order to define an acceptable
level of service (LOS) for the community. In Southeast Florida, the king tides occur annually,
in September and October. Storms may alter this pattern slightly, but these are atypical and temporal
events that may cause significant damage and disruption to the community, but do little to affect the
long-term trends for sea level rise. Hence, storm related impacts were not considered. Figure 2 shows
tidal data, graphed from highest to lowest, illustrating how the highest tides are much higher than the
average. The LOS should indicate how often it is acceptable for flooding to occur in a community on
an annual basis. The failure to establish an acceptable LOS is often the cause of a loss of confidence in
public officials at a later point in time. The effects of sea-level rise on the LOS should be used to update
the mapping in terms of demonstrating changes in vulnerability and increased flooding frequency.
For example, a 1% flooding frequency translates to four flood days per year.
