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Tutorial 2 - Solutions (Chapter 2 - Demand Forecasting)

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Operations Management, Supply Chain Management

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  • March 28, 2018
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Professor
Dr.-Ing. Bernd Hellingrath
Chair for Information Systems and
Supply Chain Management

Leonardo-Campus 3
48149 Münster

Tel. +49 251 83-38000
Fax +49 251 83-38009
Hellingrath@ercis.de



Tutorial Operations Management
Chapter 2 – Demand Forecast (Part 2)

Solutions


Please note: In general round off to two digits.


Exercise 4: Moving Average, Simple Exponential Smoothing

a)

200

180

160
Requested Amount [Item]




140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Period

, 2


b)1

To compare the MSEs, we calculate the MSE for periods 5 to 10:

MSET=2=259.04

MSET=3=223.81

MSET=4=171.18 (smallest MSE  Use T=4 for the forecast)

Forecast valur for period 11 with T=4:

t
1
ŷ t 1   y
T  t  T 1

10
1 1 1
ŷ11  
4 10  4 1
y   (y 7  y8  y9  y10 )  (164  157  168  183)  168
4 4
Forecasts for periods 5 to 10:

Requested
Periode Forecast
Amount [Items]
t (T=4)
5 178 159.50
6 181 165.50
7 164 168.25
8 157 170.50
9 168 170.00
10 183 167.50




1 The tables to calculate the MSEs can be found in the appendix of this document.

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