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Inflation bias essay plans (Macroeconomics FHS)

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Structured essay plans of past exam inflation bias essay questions. Prepared and used by a first class E&M student to revise for Section B of the Macroeconomics FHS paper.

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  • June 27, 2024
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[Tut] In macro theory what determines the size of the inflation bias? Do models of the inflation bias
provide a useful basis for understanding reforms such as the delegation of monetary policy from the
UK Treasury to the Bank of England in 1997?

 Refer to my HT2 tutorial sheet answer
 Introduction
o Inflation bias when in equilibrium inflation is higher than π T, due to yT > ye.
 First outline model explaining how inflation bias arise




o
 Factors that increase inflation bias:
o Factors increasing yT:
 political influence on monetary policy (high y as signal for economic competence
to win votes),
 unintentional overestimation of ye (Orphanide's account of monetary policy in
1970s where policymakers failed to realise decreased productivity levels
lowered PS curve and ye)
 Desire to achieve efficient employment given imperfect labour makrets
 [graph] PS-WS and ES-ED graph: show effect of lowered PS, and to show higher
E* given perfect labour markets.
 [graph] inflation-output graph with higher y T.
o Factors decreasing α like low trade openness
 [graph] inflation-output graph with steeper MR

 MR equation:
 α and β affect steepness
 α from short-run PC:
 [reference] Romer 1993 showed greater trade openness, greater α, lower
inflation
o Factors decreasing β:
 Extent of policymaker's inflation aversion, influenced by past negative
experiences with high inflation, or from trade openness which creates more
distortionary effects of inflation
o Higher CB impatience δ

 [equation]
 Policy expansion from A implies one-off gain for infinite sequence of losses

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