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Summary QuestionYou are to use the supplied historic data to develop forecasts that can inform

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You are to use the supplied historic data to develop forecasts that can inform KCBQuestionYou are to use the supplied historic data to develop forecasts that can inform KCB's decision whether and when to add additional high bay capacity to the toll station. 1. Plot the historic data and provi...

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  • October 13, 2024
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  • 2024/2025
  • Summary

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  • you are to use the supplied historic data to devel
  • based on the complete data set you have been give
  • based solely on data recorded after the onset of

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Question


You are to use the supplied historic data to develop forecasts that can inform

KCB's decision whether and when to add additional high bay capacity to the toll

station. 1. Plot the historic data and provide an estimate of seasonality of the

leisure traffic. 2. Provide a forecast of the expected traffic up to the end of 2025,

based on the complete data set you have been given. Create a suitable chart to

visualise the data. 3. Provide a forecast of the expected traffic up to the end of

2025, based solely on data recorded after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic

in January 2020. Create a suitable chart to visualise the data. 4. Discuss the

similarity and differences between the two forecasts. 5. What advice would you

offer KCB regarding the decision to invest in additional capacity? Note that

there is no expectation that you will use specialist software to undertake this

assignment. No additional credit will be given for doing so. Microsoft Excel is

quite sufficient. Show your working; simple, auditable steps are preferred to the

use of complex models.

, Answer & Explanation


To address the questions regarding the traffic forecasting for KCB, we'll

proceed step by step using basic forecasting techniques. Here's a structured

approach using Excel:




1. Plot the Historic Data and Estimate Seasonality


Firstly, let's plot the historic data and estimate the seasonality. Suppose we have

monthly traffic data from January 2017 to December 2023 (7 years).


- Step-by-step:


a. Enter the historic traffic data into Excel.




b. Create a line chart to visualize the traffic data over time.




c. Calculate the seasonal indices to estimate seasonality. This can be done by

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