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Annotations videos Human Decision Making (UEC31306)
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Videos1.1 Overconfidence
Positive about the self
People think that they:
- Are better drivers than other
- Have better social relations than others
- Are better adapted than others
Overprecision
Overprecision: being too sure that our judgements and decisions are accurate.
• Narrow confidence intervals.
• For both novices and experts.
• Various theories regarding the cause: desire to relieve internal dissonance, desire to appear
certain towards others, confirmation bias.
Conformation bias: search memory for relevant information, evidence is assessed adn feeling of
certainty develops, this certainty is translated into numerical response
Overestimation
Overestimation: overestimating performance, chance of success, control of situation, compared to
reality
• Especially for difficult tasks
• Because people have imperfect information about themselves
• High motivation (e.g. important test) increases the effect
• Manifestations
➢ Self-enhancement: motivated to view yourself positively
➢ Illusion of control: when people have little control, they tend to overestimate how much
control they have
➢ Planning fallacy: overestimation of the speed at which we complete projects and tasks
➢ Optimistic biases: people think that they are at low risk that bad things happen to them (skin
cancer) and have a large chance on good things happening to them (winning the lottery).
o When is optimistic bias higher? Food poisoning at home vs. outside the home. Risks
associated with alcohol vs. with GM
o Sad mood diminishes the optimistic bias
o If an event is rare, a (vast) majority of people reporting that they have low risk could be
perfect prediction
o Statistical artefacts may allow unbiased participants to falsely appear unrealistically
optimistic
Overestimation of skills
- For whom is overestimation more severe?
- Sophmore-level psychology class 141 students
- Estimate exam performance, immediately after taking it
- Most of the people overestimate. Those who are most incompetent are most deluded
- Even after participants are promised up to 100 dollar for accurate assessment of their
performance
- Incompetence at both task and evaluation of accuracy
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