Summary TUe (0LEUA0) Decision Under Risk and Uncertainty Full Revision Notes
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Grado
0LEAU0 (0LEUA0)
Institución
Technische Universiteit Eindhoven (TUE)
his is a complete summary for the course "Decision Under Risk and Uncertainty" at TUe (Eindhoven University of Technology). The course code is 0LEUA0.
It contains all of the weekly assignments, in addition to this, it contains the analysis of the weekly readings and the final project.
DURU 2022: Kick Off Work Plan
Team:
Group Members:
Team Planning
Which platforms will we use in our team work?
When are we going to have regular meetings?
Who will keep an eye on:
• the deadlines for deliverables?
• the scheduling of the meetings among ourselves?
• the scheduling of the meetings with our coach?
• any communication with the client?
• whether we are on track to delivering the group assignments in a timely manner?
Team Meetings
How will we set and communicate the goal of our weekly meetings?
Do we need a chairperson for our meetings?
Who will be taking notes during our meetings so important issues such as the division of tasks, action
points, and conclusions don’t go missing?
How will we share this information?
Team Collaboration (Roles and Leadership)
Which roles do we need in our team?
What roles will each of us take?
Do we need a group leader? If so, what do we expect from the leader?
Team Communication
How are we going to update team members about our individual contributions?
How will we communicate with one another when not working together face to face?
Project work
What are the main stages of our work?
What are they key tasks for each stage and how are these tasks divided?
How do we conduct the initial stage of project work?
Where do we collect the results of our project work?
How do we know when we can move to the next stage?
How will we merge our individual contribution? Who will oversee the organization of individual
contributions or make the final edits?
Team Rules and Evaluation
Which team rules / agreements do we want to set?
How do we deal with members that don’t honor team agreements?
How are we going to express our concerns about teamwork or the incoming tasks?
How are we going to give each other feedback on a regular basis?
Team risks and mitigation strategies
How will we handle conflicting schedules?
How will we handle lack of communication?
How will we handle diverging perspectives and conflicts?
How will we handle freerides?
How will we handle losing a team-member mid-course? Think ahead of how to mitigate this
• if i am the person who is to leave the curse
• if I am part of the team continuing the course
Are there any other major risks our project work faces?
, RISK MATRIX AND NORMATIVE UNCERTAINTIES
A risk matrix is a popular tool for plotting the severity of an event occurring on one axis, and the
probability of it occurring on the other axis. By visualizing existing and potential risks in this way, you
can assess their impact and identify which of these risks are highest priority and need the most
attention.
This week, the aim is for you to start thinking of possible risks linked to your challenge. This is a
preliminary mapping of risks, which will most probably change and refine once your familiarity with the
challenge increases. In Q2, your knowledge of assessing risks in a technical and quantitative manner
will deepen.
For your portfolio assignment, follow these steps:
(1) Reflect on the whether and how the overview of risks below is relevant for your
challenge
Our client has presented the overview of their process and what we strive to achieve is to find the relevance of
the risks attached below according to our client's operations. The five risks that were chosen to be more
applicable to our client and our challenge were the following:
Firstly, there is "Toxic by-products in the creation of chemicals". Through the membrane, CO2 and H2S
emissions are observed. As it is known CO2 has proven to be a significant contributor to air pollution, taking a
substantial role in the greenhouse effect. Hydrogen sulphide (H2S) is a very toxic gas at high concentrations.
Because it occurs in nature and is produced by numerous industrial activities, it is regarded as both an
environmental and industrial pollutant.
Likelihood: Possible
Severity: Undesirable
Risk: High
Secondly, we have "Environmental impacts and safety". This is directly connected to the previous one. As a
result of the toxicity and hazard of these chemicals, there is a negative environmental and more specifically
atmospheric impact. It was observed that some dead fish were found in a pond next to the factory. The reason
behind this is that the sewage system can become overloaded during heavy rain and a small part of the mixture
can overflow into streams and ditches. Hence, many fish were unable to survive.
Likelihood: Possible
Severity: Undesirable
Risk: High
Thirdly, we have "Safety of built structures". In the making of the specific process and function, natural gas is
used and also biogas is stored. From what is known, natural gas is a very flammable material that when in contact
with a spark, it can ignite. Biogas is also flammable, highly toxic and potentially explosive so it should be stored
very carefully in a closed environment. So, it is clear why the procedure contains characteristics that can pose a
threat to safety of the structure.
Likelihood: Risk unlikely to occur
Severity: Intolerable
Risk: High
, Next, there is "Negative impact on health". This is also connected to the toxicity and hazard of the chemicals
involved that we analysed in the first two risks. Another point that could be discussed is H2S is somewhat soluble
in water, resulting in formation of sulfhydryl acid, which is corrosive to metals, and contributes to acidic
deposition to soil and water.
Likelihood: Risk unlikely to occur
Severity: Undesirable
Risk: Medium
The last risk that might be relevant is “Unjust distribution of benefits and risks”. This is because Aa & Maas
are planning on funnelling all their waste to one plant in s’-Hertogenbosch, which means that if this plant has a
critical failure s’-Hertogenbosch would have a problem that is made by the waste of all the residents of the
Waterschap. Aa & Maas is also the one who will receive all the benefits from this, because they will produce
extra gas and fertilizer to sell. The facility is also built close to a canal connected to the Maas and if the facility
expands like planned, they might even get closer to this canal. In the event of a critical failure the sludge might
contaminate the Maas and create a huge ecological, health and drink water disaster for the cities and villages
downstream. The Maas has a lot of small canals that go into the countryside so the effect of such a spillage
could have wide ranging effects. Luckily, a critical failure is not highly likely, because of failsafe mechanisms
and regular checks.
Likelihood: Improbable
Severity: Intolerable
Risk: High
Extra Risk:
(Additionally, we came up with another possible extra risk during our though process)
Another possible risk which is not accounted for in the list below is the transportation and collection of the
sludge. If the transportation takes place via trucks, the odour will be excruciating for both the truck driver and
the citizens that live around the specific area. Also, in case of a car accident, sludge will be deposited in public
areas and cause chaos. On the other hand, if the transportation occurs via pipes, there is a risk of leaks that can
damage the environment. This could lead to the mixing of sludge with drinkable water. Also, there is the risk of
a pipe burst due to high pressure.
(1) Fill in the risk matrix below with 5 risks selected from the previous step, based on your
estimated likelihood of occurrence and severity of impact
(2) Justify the risk rating in connection to your challenge and reflect on whether there are
normative uncertainties involved in choosing the risk rating
(1) OVERVIEW OF POTENTIAL TECHNOLOGICAL AND ENGINEERING RISKS
• Existential risks related to changing the nature of humanity or the extinction of life on earth
• Toxic by-products in the creation of chemicals
• Difficulty in establishing long-term effects of exposure of new chemicals
• Environmental impacts and safety
• Consumption or depletion of natural resources
• Safety of built structures
• Accessibility issues for different stakeholder groups
• Injustice to specific stakeholder groups
• Utility of built structures for different stakeholder groups
• Environmental hazards or degradation
,• Negative impact on health
• Negative impact on psychological or emotional well being
• Destruction of cultural heritage
• Difficulty in establishing the potential for further development of robots and artificial intelligence
programs (transhumanity)
• Socio-economic well-being and security
• Social issues concerning humanoid robots (such as the reduction of human contact)
• Ethical issues concerning unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) (such as the violation of privacy)
• Military applications
• Damaging the living conditions of future generations
• Ethical issues with geo-engineering (such as those relating to hydraulic fracturing and drilling for
exploration and production of water, oil, or gas)
• Facilitating and speeding up climate change
• Development and deployment of nuclear weapons
• Problems of disposal and recycling of materials
• Unknown effects of medical or biomedical applications
• Unjust distribution of benefits and risks
• Endangering human dignity and privacy
• Endangering human rights and liberties
• Endangering the non-human ecosystem
• Use of novel technology or technological products in other ways than the intended use
• General impact on future generations (such as due to climate change)
• Unforeseen harmful side-effects
• Nuclear catastrophes and misuse of nuclear technological developments
• Problems of waste disposal
• Privacy risks (including molecular monitoring and tracking devices)
(List developed by the Satori project)
(2) RISK MATRIX
RISK
LOW MEDIUM HIGH EXTREME
RATING
KEY 0 – ACCEPTABLE 1 – ALARP (as low as 2 – GENERALLY 3 – INTOLERABLE
reasonably UNACCEPTABLE
practicable)
–––––––––––––––––– –––––––––––––––––– –––––––––––––––––– ––––––––––––––––––
OK TO PROCEED TAKE MITIGATION SEEK SUPPORT SUSPEND
EFFORTS
SEVERITY OF IMPACT
ACCEPTABLE TOLERABLE UNDESIRABLE INTOLERABLE
LIKELIHOOD OF LITTLE TO NO EFFECT EFFECTS ARE FELT, SERIOUS IMPACT COULD RESULT
OCCURENCE BUT NOT CRITICAL IN DISASTER
, IMPROBABLE LOW MEDIUM MEDIUM HIGH
RISK IS UNLIKELY
TO OCCUR
POSSIBLE LOW MEDIUM HIGH EXTREME
RISK WILL LIKELY
OCCUR
PROBABLE MEDIUM HIGH HIGH EXTREME
RISK WILL OCCUR
(3) JUSTIFY THE RISK RATING IN CONNECTION TO YOUR CHALLENGE AND REFLECT ON WHETHER
THERE ARE ANY NORMATIVE UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVED
Types of normative uncertainties affecting decision-making
(based on Taebi, B., Kwakkel, J. H., & Kermisch, C. (2020). Governing climate risks in the face of
normative uncertainties. WIREs Climate Change, 11(5), e666. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.666)
1.Evolutionary normative uncertainty: related to situations in which it is unclear which moral norm would
apply in the future to a certain situation creating technological risk. That is because both the technology
and moral views could evolve in the future.
2.Theoretical normative uncertainty: related to when different ethical theories offer different answers to
an ethical question in risk governance
3.Conceptual normative uncertainty: occurs when different ethically relevant concepts (e.g., values)
could be prioritized or interpreted differently (for example, by people from different cultures)
4.Epistemic normative uncertainty: when there is incomplete knowledge about fundamental phenomena,
or different interpretations are possible about the same body of knowledge.
(If you are marking this document, please check the first page. There we have written a
detailed explanation of the risks and a detailed justification for the ratings)
, Risk Justification for the rating Any normative uncertainty
applicable?
Toxic by-products in the CO2 is emitted from the membrane Epistemic normative uncertainty.
creation of chemicals on the procedure. We know that CO2
is very harmful for the environment There is uncertainty in how they
and the greenhouse gases, so the will store or not store the
risk is justified. hydrogen sulfide or maybe
There is also the production of process it. Depending on this the
hydrogen sulfide which is a toxic and risk could be of little or of very
corrosive gas that can be dangerous high importance.
in higher concentrations.
Likelihood: Possible
Severity: Undesirable
Risk: High
Environmental impacts and The facility processes a lot of sludge Epistemic normative uncertainty.
safety which can spill into the local
ecosystems and harm the It is not clear to what degree will
environment. The spillage can even the spillage damage the
be triggered by heavy rain which environment as it depends on the
makes it more likely. Also, the facility amount/concentration and
produces CO2 which is dangerous to location of the spillage. We also
the macro environment due to the do not know what consequences
enhanced green-house effect leading it will bring in the long term.
to climate change.
Likelihood: Possible
Severity: Undesirable
Risk: High
Safety of built structures As the treatment facility produces No normative uncertainty.
biogas and might attempt to produce
higher purity gas it is important to The risk of explosion is always
state the explosive risk this carries. there, and the severity is
As gas is being stored on sight in two intolerable. Hence, there is no
large tank’s these could explode and normative uncertainty.
be dangerous.
Likelihood: Risk unlikely to occur
Severity: Intolerable
Risk: High
Negative impact on health One of the by-products is hydrogen Epistemic normative uncertainty.
sulphide, which is toxic in high
concentrations. The facility is Since we don't directly know if
processing a lot of biogases which Hydrogen Sulphide is in high
means there will be a lot of hydrogen enough concentrations to hurt
sulphide, which might cause negative the locals. The sludge might
health impacts on locals near the create a new disease, but the
plant. The sludge can also create a likelihood is unknown.
very unhygienic environment which
may lead to diseases.
Likelihood: Risk unlikely to occur
Severity: Undesirable
Risk: Medium
,Unjust distribution of benefits The results of a total failure of the Theoretical normative
and risks. plant could have disastrous effects uncertainty.
for many people leaving close to the
plant. However, there is a low chance One can say in a utilitarian
of it happening if the safety measures viewpoint that this facility is
are upheld. The only one gaining producing a lot of useful
benefits from the increased risk of products, but in a virtue ethics
funnelling all the waste to one plant sense they are making a large
in s’-Hertogenbosch is Aa & Maas risk for others only for personal
with their increased gas and fertilizer gain.
production.
Likelihood: Improbable
Severity: Intolerable
Risk: High
, W3: STAKEHOLDER MAPPING
Last week, you thought about potential risks in connection to your challenge. This week, we go one
step further, to reflect on how these risks may affect different groups of people. These are the
stakeholders for your challenge.
For this submission, please first choose one risk that you consider (at this stage) relevant for your
challenge. Your choice may be based on the risks you highlighted in the submission of week 2 or on a
different risk you now consider important. Afterwards, reflect on who are the stakeholders for your
challenge and how they relate to the risk, using the three stakeholder categories of risk exposed, risk
beneficiaries and decision makers put forward by Sven Ove Hansson, in his article “How to Perform an
Ethical Risk Analysis” LINK). Finally, describe in bullet points some of the characteristics of the group
who features only in one category (either as risk exposed, risk beneficiary or decision maker).
1. Name the risk you are focusing on for this submission:
Toxic by-products in the creation of chemicals.
2. Reflecting on this risk, identify who may be the risk-exposed, risk-beneficiaries and decision makers.
For a description of each category, see the reading for session 4: Hansson, S. O. (2018). How to
Perform an Ethical Risk Analysis (eRA). Risk Analysis, 38(9), 1820–1829. LINK)
Risk Beneficiary: Decision Maker:
Risk Exposed:
, Company Aa & Maas: Aa en Maas Water Company and Board are classified both as Risk
Beneficiary’s and Decisionmakers. Specifically, within the board the people with major
responsibility are the Secretary-Director, the Purge Director and the Director of water system and
defences. They are beneficiary’s and decisionmakers as they profit from risks carried by their workers
such as exposing them to toxic by-products in the creation of chemicals like H2S.
Citizens: Citizens living in the area of transportation and around the factory can be classified as Risk
Exposed. They are subject to these toxic by-products, including noise and odours which are a risk
towards their health.
Workers: Company workers are also Risk Exposed as they are working daily with chemicals and
toxic by-products in the plant or are in charge of transporting them. Even if they work with the
appropriate safety measures there is still a certain degree of risk.
Farms: They purchase fertilizers and use them to promote the growth of their crops. These fertilizers
are produced by Aa & Maas and hence this makes farms Risk Beneficiary’s.
Heineken: Heineken makes use of the biogas produced by Aa & Maas for their beers. Therefore,
they are also considered as Risk Beneficiary’s.
3. Choose a group that features only in one category (i.e. it is either risk exposed, risk beneficiary or
decision maker). Indicate what you consider to be the main characteristics of this group. You may
consider socio-economic status, professional status, location, race, gender, age, education, level of
expertise, physical capabilities a.o.
The group that we chose corresponds to the risk exposed category and are the citizens. We assume
that the living areas close to the factory are of a lower quality and hence low-priced since they are
subject to noise, odours, a visually unattractive landscape... Therefore, most people that live there are
probably of a lower class and lower status. Below, there is a list of the main characteristics of this group:
Location: Area close to the factory/plants.
Socio-economic Status: Majority low to middle class.
Level of Expertise: Beginner (poor technical and scientific knowledge in relation to what the
plant does and how it functions)
Education: Basic education; probably high-school and possibly a degree in college.
Physical Capabilities: This group will probably have a range of capabilities. However,
assuming a low status background and the possible jobs they might have; we can state that
the most frequent ones will be dynamic strength, balance and stamina.
Age, gender and race are not characteristics that can be applied to our group as we have a wide variety
of individuals in this sense.
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