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Geoeconomics Class Notes

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Geoeconomics Class Notes organized by exam questions

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  • 24 de diciembre de 2024
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Geoeconomics
Geoeconomics is based on the assumption that politics and economy are two sides of one
coin (the state and the market).
- For example, the economy can be weaponized to achieve political goals (e.g.
sanctions, investments)
- Historical examples include the British blockades by sea during the Napoleonic Wars
WWI, the Marshall Plan, the Cuban blockade, sanctions to Iran or North Korea, and
the American Civil War (when the North blocked the South to squeeze the economy)
- Today, developments like interdependence, instant connectivity, and
globalization have made the wall between politics and economics thinner than
ever.

Politics vs. Economy after WWII
- During the Cold War (1947-1991), ideological struggle overshadowed economic
factors. The economy was partially weaponized, but ideas were more important. The
US and USSR were competing more about politics than economics.
- After the Cold War, things changed.
- Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber found that big powers began to use the
economy to achieve political objectives.
- He presented the US and Europe as engaged in a silent economic
war, in which Europe appeared to be completely behind key fronts
(management techniques, technological tools, R&D)
- Paul Kennedy highlighted the changing economic power base that fuels
military and naval strength and how declining economic power leads to
reduced military and diplomatic weight.
- He argued that economic strength and military power highly correlate
in the rise and fall of major empires and nations since 1500.
- He believed expanding strategic commitments led to increases in
military expenditures that overburdened a country's economic base,
and caused its long-term decline (imperial overstretch).
- Edward Luttwak argued that one of the most overlooked aspects of
geopolitical competition is the use of the economy.
- He believed that when military threats and military alliances decline,
geoeconomic priorities become dominant in the State's tools and
actions.
- The Turning Point




- States and non-state actors began to weaponize the economy.
- They used it as a tool for power projection.
- The economy was no longer purely for business.

, - Trade agreements multiplied exponentially post-WWII, leading to unprecedented
interlinks between states (inter-governance).

Geoeconomics Today
Dimensions of Geoeconomics Economic Tools of the State

- Economic warfare - Protection of strategic sectors
- Infrastructure competition - State-owned Enterprises (SOEs)
- Access to natural resources - Example: Saudi Aramco
- Political influence through economy (used to promote Saudi
and finance interests)
- Example: China’s BRI - Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs)
(sustain economic growth - Politicized central banks
and political stability) - Economic planning
- Weaponizing of institutions
- Example: IMF, WB
- Battle for ideas


In summary
- Aside from the military, the most important instruments of power and influence today
are economic tools.
- Market share, investments, infrastructures, energy, minerals, etc. are becoming
strategic assets for states.
- A growing rivalry is ongoing and many players are participating, mostly states and
corporations.

Geoeconomics
- Definitions
- The study of how States and NSAs use economic means and tools to achieve
their objectives, ambitions, and agendas
- The discipline and field of study focused on how politics, geography, and
economy intersect to shape international relations, including the distribution,
correlation, and use of power among nations.
- States and other NSAs may use economic factors as tools of policy-making to
influence events or behaviors at the domestic or international level.
- The Scope of Geoeconomics
1. How States and other NSAs use economic means and tools to achieve their
objectives, ambitions, and agendas
2. The economic side of geopolitical events and global governance
3. Key economic aspects of geography

,1. Geopolitical Updates, US Presidential Elections
2024 is a worldwide election year, with over 4.17BN people living in countries with an
election (at least 64 countries). This indicates a potential sharp change in domestic and
foreign policies.
- In November 2024, for example, the U.S. general elections will take place.

In 2024, the new U.S. Administration will be decided, either led by Donald Trump and JD
Vance or Kamala Harris and Tim Walz.
- This election is happening in a more turbulent, uncertain, and unpredictable world.
The 1945 I.O., a multilateral, liberal, rules-based system, is under challenge,
according to American analysts.
- The basic I.O. consensus is cracking. (e.g. the Israel-Hamas conflict, the
Russian invasion of Ukraine and the lack of action from the UN due to
Russia’s veto power in the UNSC)
- The return of great power rivalries has begun. They are at their highest point in
decades, and world leaders, especially the U.S., are showing signs of
dysfunctionality (both domestically and abroad).
- It is a more “shock-prone” world.
- Global challenges show the fragilities of globalization and interdependence
(e.g. the pandemic, climate emergency, mass migration)
- Major and unprecedented technology transformations are taking place.
- “Slowbalization” and the regionalization of the economy are taking place, indicating a
more fragmented world.
- Trade barriers are growing towards rival economic blocs.
- Trends towards protectionism, political polarization, and populist regimes
pose threats to liberal democracy and open societies.
- There is renewed competition for strategic commodities (e.g. energy, food,
critical minerals).

What drives governance fragmentation?
- Governance fragmentation is driven by:
1. geopolitical tensions among great powers
2. the less operational I.O. of 1945
3. growing national security considerations (accelerated by the pandemic, the
invasion of Ukraine, Red Sea tensions, etc.)
4. insecurity of food, energy, and critical minerals
- e.g. Dec. 2023: China banned the export of rare earth processing tech
(e.g. gallium) over national security.
5. the erosion of multilateralism largely due to inconsistent foreign policy from
the U.S. (Trump v. Biden)
- e.g. Trump’s policies to place full tariffs on China
- Ineffectiveness of the UN
- The UNSC is sidelined/blocked in major geopolitical challenges due to the
veto power of the P5 members.

, - In the 78th UNGA Session in September 2023, many important leaders did
not attend (e.g. Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi, Rishi Sunak,
Emmanuel Macron).
- The benefits of globalization (e.g. tech diffusion, higher global living standards,
poverty reduction, a more productive global economy) are being balanced against job
losses in the West, middle-class prospects, and social discontent linked to the
unclear prospect of growth.
- This leaves a fertile ground for protectionism, nationalism, and populism.
- Is there a new Cold War between the US and China?

The US criticism of the Soviets’ gerontocracy in the 1980s
- Leonid Brezhnev – died in office at 75 years old
- Yuri Andropov – died in office at 69 years old
- Konstantin Chernenko – died in office at 73 years old
- Today, however, this gerontocracy is happening in the US.

President Biden – the 46th and current US president
- At 81 years old, he has had 50 years of public service.
- After his presidential debate with Trump on June 27, 2024, voters, donors, and polls
expressed serious doubts about his ability to fulfill his responsibility to run the country
another term (and defeat Trump).
- He dropped out of reelection in favor of Kamla Harris on July 21 and gave his
drop-out speech on July 25.
- After dropping out of the race, Biden became the first President not to seek
reelection since Lyndon B Johnson in 1968.

Biden’s dropout speech – framed his accomplishments and legacy and warned about
political violence and the US democracy being at stake (an inflection point in US history)
- Accomplishments:
1. Led the US in the worst political and economic moment (especially after the
pandemic), boosting infrastructure, manufacturing, and innovation
2. Strengthened NATO and US allies in the Pacific
3. Prevented China from surpassing the US in global primacy
4. Led a coalition against Russia after the invasion of Ukraine
5. Became the first 21st c. President to not be at (open) war

Biden’s Geopolitics – “America is Back”
- Aimed to repair/reverse effects of Trump’s foreign policy in its global, multilateral role
- Rejoined WHO and the Climate Agreement
- Rebuilt ties with NATO (though more focused on the Ukraine War than
Afghanistan)
- Had little or no rush in changing or softening Trump’s decisions with Cuba, Iran,
China, and other trading partners
- Did not strongly tackle the Abraham Accords and Trump’s migration policies

With exceptions, Biden’s presidency did not lead to a ‘real’ return to the pre-Trump situation.
So, is it possible to coin a “Biden doctrine”?
- In 2021, he ended American presence in Afghanistan after 20 years, but chaotically.

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