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Lecture 1-16 notes
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Environmental Science NotesLecture 1 - 3
Lecture #1 Notes
Risk - What is it?
How is it assessed
A risk probability
Suffering harm from a hazard
a. Injury
b. Disease > May impact me or the ecosystem
c. Emudegraduation
d. Economic loss or damage
1. We express risk
As a probability mathematical likelihood risk probability common everyday lives
a. Health risk smoking and lung cancer 1 and 250 people who smoke pack/day
b. Lifetime odds of dying in a car crash are 1 and 93 chance
c. Flying 1 and 11 million chance of dying in a plane crash
B. flooding - thousand-year flood
a. Flood is likely to occur once 1000 years - can occur in years
b. Excessive heat - B/N 1979-2022 over the last three years seen a spike this much
Maricopa county - 645 heat-related deaths in 2023 < 52% increase 2022
Lecture #2 Notes
D. What is the difference between possibility and probability
( smoking could give smokers cancer)
- Mathematical likelihood of cancer
B. Risk assessment (RA)
Scientific process estimating how much harm a hazard can cause
- Using RA priority which can manage RA at CO2 well leads to an
- 66% prob and temp
- 1 And 8
5*F - 28C - Current policies
4.5*F - 2.5C - small policy changes
1. Risk Management(RM)
RM - use the findings of risk assessment use it to decide what to manage priorities - develop
mechanisms behaviors to CO2 admissions
a. We are often poor when deciding what is and is not risky( Ex Covid- anti-vac )
anti - Mask/food-born issues can be managed
b. To be cases / we get it right
- Evolution of auto safety devices
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