In Block 2 of the Supply Chain management master at Rotterdam Business School (Hogeschool Rotterdam) a Strategic foresight report has been written. Chosen company is Dunkin' Donuts.
Strategic Supply Chain Foresight
report of Dunkin’ Donuts
Image 1: Logo of Dunkin’ Donuts. (The Packaging Company, 2019)
Trends & Technology in Supply Chains
Master Supply Chain Management
Rotterdam Business School
Valerie Kuijpers - 1056758
November 13th 2022
Table of content
Strategic Supply Chain Foresight report of Dunkin’ Donuts.............................................................................1
Table of content...............................................................................................................................................1
2.1 Rise of the individual..................................................................................................................................3
4.1 From linear to circular................................................................................................................................6
7. The road to a future proof and sustainable business model........................................................................8
7.1 implementation plan for Dunkin’ Donuts...................................................................................................8
8. Self-reflection with CARL............................................................................................................................10
1. Introduction
“At Dunkin’ Donuts, we make people smile. And when you make people smile every day, they’ll
come back for more.” (Nash, n.d.). In addition to being the world’s leader in baked goods and
coffee, Dunkin’ Donuts is classified as a fast-food restaurant because products are produced
and sold all day long (Ion, 2022). When a customer places and order, they are immediately
served, because Dunkin’ specialises in franchising quick service restaurants (Lock, 2021).
Over three million customers are being served every day (Nash, n.d.), however, currently
there is a great risk for Dunkin’ to possibly get disrupted in daily business over the short and
longterm. The risk could result in a loss of customers because of two mega trends; Rise of the
individual and Climate change.
This strategic supply chain foresight report of Dunkin’ Donuts aims to gain insight in mega
trends that can have impact on the industry and daily operations in the circularity,
digitalisation and data-driven aspect of Dunkin’. Current processes and practices are analysed
and future possibilities are given in line with the trends. Also, stakeholders have been
identified who are impacted and could help Dunkin’. These are displayed in a stakeholder
analysis. Hereafter, a roadmap to a future proof and sustainable business model is provided in
!2
, which three solutions are described. These solutions could be implemented by Dunkin’ and
could prevent a negative impact of the mega trends. Lastly, a self-reflection analysis based on
the CARL Reflection model including the context, actions, results and leaning are explained.
2. Megatrends
2.1 Rise of the individual
Majority of Dunkin’s product portfolio contains of lots of sugar varying from 13 to almost 50
grams of sugar per food item. Hereby some examples; the most popular donut, the glazed
donut (Elizabeth, 2022) contains of 13 grams of sugar. Yet, the most sugary donut is the
Dunkin’ Butternut Donut which has 34 grams of sugar per donut. For this single donut an
individual should walk for 120 minutes or cycle for 66 minutes (Calorieking, n.d.). Moreover,
according to Dunkin’ Editorial Staff, a research on their most sold product in the United States
in 2017 resulted in their iced coffee (2017). Shockingly this coffee including on of the Mocha,
French Vanilla, Original and Espresso flavours, consists on average of 45 grams of sugar (New
Jersey Bariatric Centre Staff, 2017).
To put this in perspective, the American Heart Association recommends Americans to cut their
added sugar consumption drastically, because the average American adult, teenager and child
consumes about 17 teaspoons (translates to 68 grams) of added sugar a day. Whereas, the
recommendation suggests for adult women to have a strict added-sugar of no more than 24
grams of sugar per day, for adult man a limit of 36 grams of sugar per day and for children a
maximum of 24 grams per day (The Nutrition Source, n.d.).
In recent years, there is a changing consumer behaviour towards healthier food that contain
significantly less added sugars. This change in behaviour is part of a global megatrend “Rise of
the individual”. As awareness, education and accessibility to information regarding health risks
of fast food is growing, consumers are demanding fast food restaurants to incorporate more
low-calorie, low-sugar and fresh ingredients (Garfield, 2017). Especially in the largest fast food
consumer market North America with a Fast food market size in 2020 of USD 337.8 billion
(Appendix A), it is challenging for Dunkin’ Donuts to adjust their product portfolio to this
upcoming trend (Fortune Business Insights, 2022).
Moreover, apart from growing consensus regarding risks of consuming, among other things
sugary donuts, institutes like the World Health Organisation (WHO) is implying governments to
implement guidelines to restrict individuals’ sugar consumption. Some policies the WHO
suggests focus on availability, affordability, acceptability and awareness of sugar. According to
a comprehensive study executed by See, unhealthy food choices tend to be $1.50 per day
cheaper than healthy food, unhealthy snacks are more convenient, and unhealthy meals
appear to taste better (2022).
On a strategic level, Dunkin’ should adapt its strategies to target healthy-conscious baked
goods and coffee consumers should communicate this clearly to their customers. By baking
donuts with a new defined recipe without ingredients like yeast but oat flour or almond flour
and when baked in the oven, the donuts have more air and are more fluffy. This results in the
level of calories and sugar to reduced numerously (Haute healthy living, 2022).
Considering the financial level of the supply chain of Dunkin’ Donuts, this trends affects mainly
the upstream suppliers and downstream manufacturing. This is because, if the company
decides to invest in more healthy food and beverages these should be purchased from (other)
suppliers for possibly a higher cost. Besides, the shops where the donuts and other products
are produced are affected if the recipes will be changed to reduce the amount of sugar per
food item.
With this mega trend where consumers are becoming more environmental and health
conscious, the operational strategy should be adjusted as well. Showing interest in these
changing needs, and explaining how Dunkin’ is diversifying their product portfolio with donut
and coffee options with sugar levels below 13 grams, will be crucial to maintain close
relationships with their (loyal) customer base. By doing this there is potential to increase the
!3
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