Topic political marketing, campaigns, and voters
Content
Week 1 – Introduction and the public and its opinion............................................................................2
Week 2 - Political Marketing?.................................................................................................................4
Week 3 - Trump and the rise of populism...............................................................................................7
Week 4 - Negative campaigning............................................................................................................10
Week 5 - Emotional campaigning.........................................................................................................13
Week 6 - Persuasion and conspiracy theories.......................................................................................16
Week 7 - Are citizens up to the challenge? + Recap & Q&A..................................................................20
,Week 1 – Introduction and the public and its opinion
Opinion: something you believe in (if it is true or not true). It objective and they can reflect your
identity. They are a key element in contemporary “models” of political behavior. Measuring opinions
allows to predict (voting) behaviors > opinionpolls
- Media obsession with opinions
- Political consultants as key players for politicians to “shape” behaviors
Three subsequent models of (political) behaviours
- Rational models
- Sociological models
- Socio-psychological models
Rational (or economic) models
Central element: individual preferences (preferences guide behaviour > its rational behaviour)
“Homo oeconomicus” =
- “Customer” with simplified psychology but full information
- Able to choose among alternatives
- Driven by logic
- Stable “taste” and preferences
- If identical circumstances, identical choice
- Egoistical (no altruistic behaviors) and decides “rationally”
Critics on the rational model: we don’t have full information (you haven’t tried all the possible
yoghurts form a supermarket and have a preference based on this full information). Completely
knowing your preferences is impossible. Emotions play a significant role.
Voorbeeld: Kiescompass gives you a party based on your preferences, but you can still decide not to
vote on that party, because you don’t like the party leader or its not socially acceptable to vote on
them.
Sociological model (Columbia model)
After WWII
- Historical importance of political persuasion
- Individuals do not necessarily behave rationally > People can be persuaded to do something >
propaganda etc.
Lazarsfeld et al. (1944). The People's Choice: How the Voter Makes Up His Mind in a Presidential
Campaign > Goal: show that propaganda works, beyond voters’ preferences. Surprising results!
- Preferences almost stable in time (they don’t change, they are deep in your mind > opinions are
more on the surface and fluctuate)
- Very little (“minimal”) effect of political communication (propaganda).
- Key factor: individual values (“brand loyalties”) stay stable in time
Values and preferenes depend on the way people are raised, social environment, social class and
culture =
- Social class (socio-economic level)
- Religious affiliation (and religiosity)
- Residence (urban v rural)
BUT/critics
If preferences (values) are stable in time, how to explain fluctuations in voting choices (aggregated,
individuals)? Need for a more encompassing model, that takes into account:
, - The “stable” component of preferences (long term effects)
- The “fluctuating” component of preferences (short term effects) (opinions are fluctuating)
- The effects of a changing context
Socio-psychological model (Michigan model)
Builds on the Columbia model (importance of stable preferences to shape behaviours), BUT it adds a
psychological perspective to account for short-term fluctuations.
Focus on three “behavioral dispositions” (key elements) > combined they lead your behaviour
- Values (not very fluctuating)
- Attitudes (newly added by this model)
- Opinions (very fluctuating)
Values: Stable forces that anchor and guide our vision of the world and participate to who we are as
individuals (Columbia’s “brand loyalties”)
Attitudes: Preferences about important aspects of our life > Deep affect towards X, like/dislike,
beliefs. Attitudes are relatively stable over a lifetime, slow shifts and can stem from values. E.g.:
- Party identification
- Movies/Music preferences
- Social attitudes
Opinions: Ideas and perceptions about specific “objects” > Potentially unstable, fluctuations.
Contextual influences are very important. E.g.:
- Support for POTUS at time
- Like/dislike for specific movie
The funnel of causality: The closer you get to behaviour, the more the elements in your mind matter
> values, attitudes, opinions (are formed by things that happen before you vote).
Content
Week 1 – Introduction and the public and its opinion............................................................................2
Week 2 - Political Marketing?.................................................................................................................4
Week 3 - Trump and the rise of populism...............................................................................................7
Week 4 - Negative campaigning............................................................................................................10
Week 5 - Emotional campaigning.........................................................................................................13
Week 6 - Persuasion and conspiracy theories.......................................................................................16
Week 7 - Are citizens up to the challenge? + Recap & Q&A..................................................................20
,Week 1 – Introduction and the public and its opinion
Opinion: something you believe in (if it is true or not true). It objective and they can reflect your
identity. They are a key element in contemporary “models” of political behavior. Measuring opinions
allows to predict (voting) behaviors > opinionpolls
- Media obsession with opinions
- Political consultants as key players for politicians to “shape” behaviors
Three subsequent models of (political) behaviours
- Rational models
- Sociological models
- Socio-psychological models
Rational (or economic) models
Central element: individual preferences (preferences guide behaviour > its rational behaviour)
“Homo oeconomicus” =
- “Customer” with simplified psychology but full information
- Able to choose among alternatives
- Driven by logic
- Stable “taste” and preferences
- If identical circumstances, identical choice
- Egoistical (no altruistic behaviors) and decides “rationally”
Critics on the rational model: we don’t have full information (you haven’t tried all the possible
yoghurts form a supermarket and have a preference based on this full information). Completely
knowing your preferences is impossible. Emotions play a significant role.
Voorbeeld: Kiescompass gives you a party based on your preferences, but you can still decide not to
vote on that party, because you don’t like the party leader or its not socially acceptable to vote on
them.
Sociological model (Columbia model)
After WWII
- Historical importance of political persuasion
- Individuals do not necessarily behave rationally > People can be persuaded to do something >
propaganda etc.
Lazarsfeld et al. (1944). The People's Choice: How the Voter Makes Up His Mind in a Presidential
Campaign > Goal: show that propaganda works, beyond voters’ preferences. Surprising results!
- Preferences almost stable in time (they don’t change, they are deep in your mind > opinions are
more on the surface and fluctuate)
- Very little (“minimal”) effect of political communication (propaganda).
- Key factor: individual values (“brand loyalties”) stay stable in time
Values and preferenes depend on the way people are raised, social environment, social class and
culture =
- Social class (socio-economic level)
- Religious affiliation (and religiosity)
- Residence (urban v rural)
BUT/critics
If preferences (values) are stable in time, how to explain fluctuations in voting choices (aggregated,
individuals)? Need for a more encompassing model, that takes into account:
, - The “stable” component of preferences (long term effects)
- The “fluctuating” component of preferences (short term effects) (opinions are fluctuating)
- The effects of a changing context
Socio-psychological model (Michigan model)
Builds on the Columbia model (importance of stable preferences to shape behaviours), BUT it adds a
psychological perspective to account for short-term fluctuations.
Focus on three “behavioral dispositions” (key elements) > combined they lead your behaviour
- Values (not very fluctuating)
- Attitudes (newly added by this model)
- Opinions (very fluctuating)
Values: Stable forces that anchor and guide our vision of the world and participate to who we are as
individuals (Columbia’s “brand loyalties”)
Attitudes: Preferences about important aspects of our life > Deep affect towards X, like/dislike,
beliefs. Attitudes are relatively stable over a lifetime, slow shifts and can stem from values. E.g.:
- Party identification
- Movies/Music preferences
- Social attitudes
Opinions: Ideas and perceptions about specific “objects” > Potentially unstable, fluctuations.
Contextual influences are very important. E.g.:
- Support for POTUS at time
- Like/dislike for specific movie
The funnel of causality: The closer you get to behaviour, the more the elements in your mind matter
> values, attitudes, opinions (are formed by things that happen before you vote).
